weathafella Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Locked 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12z UKMET in line with the consensus and not too much dampening into northern Illinois. Surface low track came in a bit farther south, which isn't a bad thing because 00z run was more concerning for mixing up to here for a time. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Thoughts on lake enhancement Ricky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: Locked You come here for a few weeks, Chicago gets its biggest storm in a few years. Don’t go. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Man this is looking like a heck of a storm out here. Could even be 12-15” in the max band. Not sure that’s CR/IC but probably just south of us as we are starting to reach a pretty tight track consensus. That said, gusts to 40-45 mph seem likely for most of the event, and combined with heavy snow, should allow blizzard criteria to be met for many in Iowa/perhaps N IL as well. Assuming watches will be hoisted in the afternoon package? Looking more and more like the highest impact winter event in DVN’s CWA since 11/25/18. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Nice to see the models becoming more realistic with a SW/NE tilt to the snow swath. 4-8" is the solid call for NW Ohio/SE Michigan with higher amounts possible to the west, but certainly expect this one to underperform. Weakening system on approach with mixing issues as the column saturates will make this more of a 4-6" in all likelihood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 No 15z RAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, mimillman said: You come here for a few weeks, Chicago gets its biggest storm in a few years. Don’t go. Lol..I’ve been carefully trolling my New England buddies. We’ll probably head back Wednesday or Thursday and Thursday to spread the love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 If I had to get in LOT's head, I think they may shy away from blizzard talk at this point because of uncertainty on there being heavy amounts eastward through the cwa (even though this isn't technically a criteria, but you need heavy enough rates for long enough) and lower ratios reducing the ability to blow around. Maybe I'm wrong though. Let's see a discussion with the B word Ricky! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: If I had to get in LOT's head, I think they may shy away from blizzard talk at this point because of uncertainty on there being heavy amounts eastward through the cwa (even though this isn't technically a criteria, but you need heavy enough rates for long enough) and lower ratios reducing the ability to blow around. Maybe I'm wrong though. Let's see a discussion with the B word Ricky! Agree. DVN perhaps, LOT no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Thoughts on lake enhancement Ricky?It's looking decent on Tuesday. When I get to the office, will dig in more on BUFKIT. 850 mb temps still look on the marginal side for the bulk of Monday night from a thermodynamics perspective, but there's going to be good speed convergence and there's little shear. 850 mb temps on Tuesday cool to or just below -10C, which considering the well above normal lake sfc temps, seems like that would get it done with still supportive wind field. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 If I had to get in LOT's head, I think they may shy away from blizzard talk at this point because of uncertainty on there being heavy amounts eastward through the cwa (even though this isn't technically a criteria, but you need heavy enough rates for long enough) and lower ratios reducing the ability to blow around. Maybe I'm wrong though. Let's see a discussion with the B word Ricky! I think ratios will be too low overall for during the heaviest rates for true blizzard conditions out this way. We didn't verify in the November 2018 blizzard warning because the visibilities never tanked too low even though the winds were more than supportive. The magnitude of wind speeds and gusts progged should still increase the severity of the impacts. After starting out with 10:1 or less ratios, the snow later on should be more 12:1 and that would be on top of a more dense layer beneath so blowing and drifting probably becomes a bigger issue at that point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro is a touch south, or maybe a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Cautiously optimistic. Believe me, I would love to be proven wrong and northern LOT counties get at least 6", but I'm not sold. Lake County has the best shot, of course, thanks to lake enhancement/effect. I'd feel more comfortable if I lived 30 miles south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12z Euro really craps out the precip shield as you head east of Iowa. East of Chicago? Yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: 12z Euro really craps out the precip shield as you head east of Iowa. East of Chicago? Yikes! Shears out and just sits on N IL snowing. Totals will be in line with earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Cautiously optimistic. Believe me, I would love to be proven wrong and northern LOT counties get at least 6", but I'm not sold. Lake County has the best shot, of course, thanks to lake enhancement/effect. I'd feel more comfortable if I lived 30 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Shears out and just sits on N IL snowing. Totals will be in line with earlier runs Secondary low forms with the 700 mb circulation and really keeps precip going for a while. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: I’m really over your constant harassment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Shears out and just sits on N IL snowing. Totals will be in line with earlier runs My fear though is that it just tears apart and weakens rapidly It may sit on top of us but rapidly falls apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Shears out and just sits on N IL snowing. Totals will be in line with earlier runs It does have a secondary defo zone that completes the storm for northern Illinois. Michigan gets hosed, though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z Euro really craps out the precip shield as you head east of Iowa. East of Chicago? Yikes! Yikes is right. SEMI in particular gets really screwed this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: I’m really over your constant harassment. I’m not harassing you, I’m disagreeing with you. If you’re going to continue to post unsubstantiated garbage, expect the disagreement to continue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro makes no sense. It has the surface low in southern IN then next frame jumps up near Peoria unless that's a new low. The precip shield literally just like vanishes as it heads east. That confluence is a killer. Bout ready to punt this storm for my area. Hoping after more sampling it could adjust south again but not likely. This apparently is eastern Iowa's winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 What an absolute shaft for SE MI Damn it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Secondary low forms with the 700 mb circulation and really keeps precip going for a while. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I wish that H7 low on the euro was a bit further south for the initial thump. It is better on gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Secondary low forms with the 700 mb circulation and really keeps precip going for a while. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yea, keeps it going through Tuesday pretty much, interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Bit of a facepalm run here. There's decent snow with the hangback feature on Tuesday but that is mostly just north of here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro is a bit wetter in Iowa. Precip shield is also a bit more tilted than 00z. I’d love if the low would die a bit slower. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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