hlcater Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Definitely will under-perform what guidance showed, unless something surprises in the next few hours. Luckily, lower end of NWS forecast should work out that way. LNK, OMA, SE NE and SW IA are on pace to do well though. OMA is at 3 and LNK is already at 6. Thats more or less what guidance had there through 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Snowstorms said: I've noticed these type of deformation bands always set-up away from the Lake especially north of 401. Thermals look good for some decent dendrites too. What's your take on any potential lake enhancement? With regards to lake enhancement, I don't see that being a major component of this system for GTA. Sounding data indicates surface winds are ENE with winds veering with height (i.e 850mb winds ESE and 700mb SW). This amount of directional shear doesn't support organized enhancement. Sfc-700mb temps are in the range of -9C to 0C which is also a bit warm for organized enhancement. We would typically want inversion heights to be more elevated & mid-level temps a bit cooler given lake temps about 5-6C. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, hlcater said: LNK, OMA, SE NE and SW IA are on pace to do well though. OMA is at 3 and LNK is already at 6. Thats more or less what guidance had there through 18z. My buddy Dan just said 7” in Lincoln with ripping snow rn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said: My buddy Dan just said 7” in Lincoln with ripping snow rn. 7" so far with a radar signature like that? No doubt they'll hit the higher end of the 8"-12" forecast. Omaha and Nebraska City areas look primed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Things looking good here, visibilities have been <1 mile all morning. Local office described 12pm - 7pm as best time for snow, imagine that band in Lincoln plays big into that outlook. Plows can't keep up on the main roads, much less side roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I'm in extreme eastern Lincoln and I have 8 already, pure rippage, heaviest I've seen a long time! Probably 1" last 25 minutes 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 appreciate the update on what will be a snow grain when it gets to my yard 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baum said: appreciate the update on what will be a snow grain when it gets to my yard We will take our 1-3" and we will like it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Ugh-I’ve kind of lost interest and am planning activities without regard to snow. Will be mostly driving around north shore tonight and tomorrow. Hope I hit the intensity of that little window last Tuesday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 HRRR doesn't look bad, but it's definitely going to come down to the lake being the saving grace for those on the immediate lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 hours ago, Snowstorms said: I agree. Most of the snow should fall within a few hours with the leading FGEN band. Looks favorable for some good dendrites too. Could be some lake enhancement from Mississauga to Oakville. After such a quiet and boring month, even 4” will feel like a winter wonderland. Nice to see you back again. Agree with Blizz96's assessment on twitter, LES is not going to be a big factor in this one. HRRR overdone. Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: HRRR doesn't look bad, but it's definitely going to come down to the lake being the saving grace for those on the immediate lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 27 minutes ago, mimillman said: HRRR doesn't look bad, but it's definitely going to come down to the lake being the saving grace for those on the immediate lakeshore. At least it's looking like the lake effect will be quasi-stationary/wobble around the city and nearby as we get into Tue/Wed. Still would appear to me that it could tack on an additional 2-4" (maybe locally higher) in some areas late Tue-Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18z HRRR a real kick in the teeth for McHenry County. Sadly looking like my 4" call will be right (if not a bit high). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 This is before any potential lake effect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, McHenrySnow said: 18z HRRR a real kick in the teeth for McHenry County. Sadly looking like my 4" call will be right (if not a bit high). Should have stuck with original 3" magic 8 ball forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, blizzardof96 said: With regards to lake enhancement, I don't see that being a major component of this system for GTA. Sounding data indicates surface winds are ENE with winds veering with height (i.e 850mb winds ESE and 700mb SW). This amount of directional shear doesn't support organized enhancement. Sfc-700mb temps are in the range of -9C to 0C which is also a bit warm for organized enhancement. We would typically want inversion heights to be more elevated & mid-level temps a bit cooler given lake temps about 5-6C. Okay makes sense. Thank you for the breakdown. Not super knowledgeable when it comes to lake effect, so thanks for the insight. Should be a good event nonetheless and should help YYZ inch closer to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Should have stuck with original 3" magic 8 ball forecast Remember when I moved to the far NW suburbs to get more snow? hahahahahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: If I had to pick, I'd go Northbrook south to Jefferson Park or so for max combined totals locally, feels like frictional convergence effects are maximized HRRR really liking this area now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I believe RC mentioned this in his afd last night. Notice the more showery/convective look to the echoes as the dry slot approaches. Question is how much it can swing into areas cold enough aloft for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I know where all the moisture is..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 That's not messing around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, RogueWaves said: Yep. Currently no mention of mix here but I will be surprised if we manage to avoid it completely. It's a theme this winter. Both biggest snows have melted to some degree within 12 hrs after falling. Still seems northern SEMI would get a WWA. We have not had a problem having all snow events. in fact Christmas was like true mid winter with blowing and drifting, temps near 20 and low wind chills. but as you said, melting begins soon after (1-2 days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 35 minutes ago, mimillman said: HRRR doesn't look bad, but it's definitely going to come down to the lake being the saving grace for those on the immediate lakeshore. this would work i guess 18" bullseye with LES still on west side of the lake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I believe RC mentioned this in his afd last night. Notice the more showery/convective look to the echoes as the dry slot approaches. Question is how much it can swing into areas cold enough aloft for snow. From LOT:" AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRYSLOT, STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL COMPETE WITH DIMINISHING HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE. IF MOISTURE REMAINS IN SUFFICIENT SUPPLY, CONVECTIVE-TYPE SNOW WOULD CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ACT TO LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS, BUT THIS REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: this would work i guess 18" bullseye with LES still on west side of the lake so we've got past the euro blip? Excellent. That's 7-9" IMBY. I'm good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 DVN radar starting to show signs of life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The 18z NAM came in...........wetter! across N IL at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: DVN radar starting to show signs of life Top down saturation is nearly immediate. Already snowing in IC. The dry layer on the DVN 12z sounding was really quite modest so it is reasonable to assume this should continue to be the case further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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