janetjanet998 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, homedis said: Already a dusting... more than I imagined for the entire storm down here in Champaign lol Looks like some cooling on the NW edge of the precip blob enough for snow...not modeled that well also seems the precip shield is a tad north then modeled .shouldn't last long though 1/2 vis in DEC now KDEC 251532Z 07013KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV012 M01/M01 A2997 RMK A02 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 948 AM CST MON JAN 25 2021 UPDATE 948 AM CST THERE ARE NO MAJOR UPDATES BEING MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE REFINING SNOW TOTALS: (1) BETWEEN I-39 AND I-355 WHERE A LOCAL MINIMA MAY MATERIALIZE BETWEEN THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES TO OUR WEST AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT, RESPECTIVELY (2) ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER WHERE PERSISTENT LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ MAY LEAD TO FLUFFIER SNOW RATIOS (3) ALONG I-80 WHERE A TIGHT SNOW GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE DRY SLOT "SQUEEZING" THE DGZ NORTHWARD, AND (4) AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS SNOW RATIOS INCREASE AND THE UPPER- LEVEL WAVE FINALLY PULLS THROUGH. AT THIS POINT THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES AND ESPECIALLY COOK COUNTY WHERE 4 TO 8, LOCALLY MORE, ARE PROBABLE. THE STEADIEST SNOW RATES, APPROACHING 1"/HR, ARE EXPECTED FROM ROUGHLY 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT, WITH RATES GRADUALLY DECREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SNOW RATES MAY REMAIN HEAVY ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. REGARDLESS OF SNOW TOTALS, DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Sweet view Enjoy the morning flakes. I've got a bunch of friends in Northbrook, so will get you a report on how things look back home.Haha thanks! Grew up in Northbrook, now in Champaign finishing up school (im starting my last semester of grad school today) and will be moving back to downtown Chicago this summer. Anyways, hope things trend a little better for you N IL ppl, you guys deserve an over-performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Ricky-- any more thoughts on an advisory for lake effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Tremendous messaging by LOT on this event in my opinion from a public perspective. Never bit on the high end numbers from 2 days ago and have pretty much stayed the course on a solid 6 " event. The latest update on accumulation refinement between I-39 and I-355 is another nice touch given that area will be in between the best accumulation maxima. Sadly, I'm in that zone.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Ricky-- any more thoughts on an advisory for lake effect?I was at the office late last night and there wasn't a ton of time to refine the pure lake effect part of the forecast, though the forecaster handling it liked the setup. I see it as being distinctly possible with travel impacts into Wednesday. We'll see what the dayshift thinks today and I'll get to take a look at it this evening too. If there's long enough residence time, convergence and parameters look sufficient to get 2-3"+ totals, which is probably the bar we'd use vs SPS. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 In my part of Indy right now, just a light glaze of ice on trees, cars, etc. Road outside my house is just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, wxman_ind said: In my part of Indy right now, just a light glaze of ice on trees, cars, etc. Road outside my house is just wet. Should ask StormfanaticInd why the 1045mb high in Nunavut wasn't resulting in colder boundary layer temps for more significant icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, wxman_ind said: In my part of Indy right now, just a light glaze of ice on trees, cars, etc. Road outside my house is just wet. Glad to hear the report and that it should melt by early afternoon. I used to live in Fortville for six years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The 12z GFS really likes the IL side LES and also gives@Hoosier some love. GFS v16 not quite as generous but still quite solid 3 day totals. Ratios should be pretty good in the LES phase. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The GFS has gone from one of the wet models to one of the driest for my area. The HRRR is now the wettest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 This whole first slug of moisture looks to stay pretty south. Originally looked like we would see two waves but looking more like one that starts this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 58 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Trending to a 3-6" event locally. Surprised how far north this ended up coming given the downstream blocking. I agree. Most of the snow should fall within a few hours with the leading FGEN band. Looks favorable for some good dendrites too. Could be some lake enhancement from Mississauga to Oakville. After such a quiet and boring month, even 4” will feel like a winter wonderland. Nice to see you back again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said: looks like the dry slot has developed as modeled eating away at the precip over MO into SE IA convection around the OH river isn't helping matters as far as moisture transport north 9am obs indicate light snow on the NW edge of the precip shield over I-72 area in central IL it may actually stay just south of me or at best get briefly clipped for a time some signs of "speckled" echoes developing over SE IA and western IL...likely light sleet ..we have to see if this is a start of a "refill" of the dry slot area Models last night were hinting at this morning wave staying south and kind of dry slotting a bit into the afternoon before it filled in. Wasn't sure on it materializing like that but sure looks like it will. Curious if this will impact our amounts a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 23 minutes ago, Baum said: Tremendous messaging by LOT on this event in my opinion from a public perspective. Never bit on the high end numbers from 2 days ago and have pretty much stayed the course on a solid 6 " event. The latest update on accumulation refinement between I-39 and I-355 is another nice touch given that area will be in between the best accumulation maxima. Sadly, I'm in that zone.. I vaguely recall saying this on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Models last night were hinting at this morning wave staying south and kind of dry slotting a bit into the afternoon before it filled in. Wasn't sure on it materializing like that but sure looks like it will. Curious if this will impact our amounts a lot. I am foresee most of the 2 wave staying north and we don't get jack 12zNAM only has .25-.3 precip now 12z GFS has a very tight precip; gradient across the county with .25 southeast of .65 NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: I am foresee most of the 2 wave staying north and we don't get jack 12zNAM only has .25-.3 precip now 12z GFS has a very tight precip; gradient across the county with .25 southeast of .65 NW We always fall right on the gradient here. Blows my mind. Wouldn't shock me if we missed mostly everything but holding hope hrrr/rap are right. Lol. At this point I would use hrrr/rap for guidance and not gfs, euro, nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: I vaguely recall saying this on Saturday. Agreed.. But it was for different reasoning back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 HRRR and RAP bring the mix line dangerously close to Detroit now. Snow totals have improved a little, but worried we flirt with sleet and then the dry slot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Looks like the snow won't get going until near sunset unfortunately. Was hoping to see some daytime snow. Still looking good for 6-8" if 12:1 LSR work out. If LSR end up less we'll be more in the 5-6" type range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Agreed.. But it was for different reasoning back then. No. I said the low was shearing out and less snow as you go east, but the lake would counteract that for lakeshore counties leaving the counties in the middle with lower accums. That's the same reasoning I see NWS mentioning. It's been evident for a while that this would occur. My only hope is that higher ratios further north pan out, but depending on ratios is a fool's errand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 With Des Moines already at 29" of snow for the season, they're looking to exceed 40" by tomorrow as a foot of snow there is looking like a slam dunk. Amazing winter for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 15z RAP good for cook with .90 liquid and good plume still over n cook by 18z weds, 850s down to -13 by then as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: With Des Moines already at 29" of snow for the season, they're looking to exceed 40" by tomorrow as a foot of snow there is looking like a slam dunk. Amazing winter for them. And I think they average around 33" or so? They've been blessed, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: With Des Moines already at 29" of snow for the season, they're looking to exceed 40" by tomorrow as a foot of snow there is looking like a slam dunk. Amazing winter for them. That's pretty crazy. How much do they normally average per winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like the snow won't get going until near sunset unfortunately. Was hoping to see some daytime snow. Still looking good for 6-8" if 12:1 LSR work out. If LSR end up less we'll be more in the 5-6" type range. It's the same here. It'd be nice to get something higher than 10:1 so we can at least reach 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 One of my met buddies is in Lincoln, NE and already has 5” down. Gonna be a major crush job there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: And I think they average around 33" or so? They've been blessed, that's for sure. 7 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: That's pretty crazy. How much do they normally average per winter? Yeah I think they average somewhere in the 30s. IIRC they've had some pretty crappy winters in the past decade so I guess they were due. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: 15z RAP good for cook with .90 liquid and good plume still over n cook by 18z weds, 850s down to -13 by then as well Does RAP have any value beyond the short range (6 hours)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 Corridor of 6-7" totals in SE NE, east of Hastings. That area will end up being the winner out that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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