mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Not bad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Not bad Nice slow movement of the lake plume on the RAP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Hoosier said: Nice slow movement of the lake plume on the RAP I’m a fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Evening update from RC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1055 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021 .UPDATE... 1015 PM CST The main tweak to the forecast for Monday-Tuesday winter storm was a bit of an upward adjustment in ice accumulations for areas near and south of the Kankakee River. No changes were made to the going winter headlines. It`s possible that the snow starts a bit later for portions of northern Illinois, more after sunset than prior to it, but again didn`t change start time of any of the headlines. Our burgeoning storm system can be seen getting going on water vapor imagery this evening. Another feature of note is strong drying with a jet streak racing from Mexico into southwest Texas. This dry air will be located at and above 500 mb and could be a wild card in the snow on Monday evening. The overall flavor of this storm system has changed due to an earlier intensification and occlusion process, with ingredients maxing out over the central Plains and into parts of Iowa. There`s still favorable moisture and forcing to get into moderate to even heavy snowfall rates late Monday into Monday evening, but with the synoptic system gradually weakening, and also some of the moisture probably shunted southeast by expansive convection south of the OH River, models have steadily and slowly backed off on QPF. Turning back to the h5 dry air wild card, it is one because also being advected northeastward with this air mass aloft is very steep mid and upper level lapse rates (7.5 to 9C/km above 550 mb). While some forecast soundings show the DGZ not fully saturated due to that h5 dry air, the potential for convection (slantwise or upright) given such impressively steep lapse rates aloft makes it difficult to predict how it will play out. Could make a case for lower snow ratios and less efficient accumulation, but if convection breaks out, that could quickly saturate the entire DGZ and cause heavier snowfall. All in all, didn`t make any appreciable changes to the snowfall amounts and going message, though aside from lake enhancement, possible that some parts of the area end up on lower side of the range offered in the WSW. A warm nose aloft (around 850 mb) is still progged to lift into the southern 1/3 or 1/4 of the CWA, so would expect a changeover to freezing rain in parts of our far south, probably with a narrower zone where sleet is probable in between the freezing rain and snow areas. Another thing to watch is the northward progress of a 700 mb dryslot, which would scour out ice in the DGZ and could change areas over to a freezing drizzle for a time late in the evening into the overnight. Favored for this potential would be south of I-88. Looking ahead into Tuesday, latest guidance coming in supports prolonged period of light to moderate snow on Tuesday under mid level forcing, with lake enhancement into northeast Illinois. Noting that lake effect parameters do get more favorable after synoptic snow winds down later Tuesday, with a signal that there could be accumulating lake effect snow for portions of northeast Illinois and perhaps extreme northwest Indiana all the way into Wednesday, which the midnight shift will assess. Castro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 My updated thinking on snowfall amounts for N IL. I fear amounts may still be a bit too high in some spots but will wait till the morning to make more adjustments 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 GEFS still nice for northern IL, so we have that going for us. I think the best way to look at this event now is one of managing expectations. A few days ago, it looked like it could be something special. Now it trended away from that but it still should be the single largest snow event for many of us in the metro in a while. Also the winds look like they will perform. The lake assist should be nice for parts of Lake and Cook County and LES should continue beyond the synoptic snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. So taking it for what it is, it won't be a bad event. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 New Euro actually trended a bit juicier for the QCA, dumping 0.6-0.7" of precip which would fluff up to 7-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, cyclone77 said: New Euro actually trended a bit juicier for the QCA, dumping 0.6-0.7" of precip which would fluff up to 7-9". Yea the bleeding for our area has stopped this cycle, thank god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Euro ticked back up for the main swath in northern IL as well vs. 18z run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 39 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Euro ticked back up for the main swath in northern IL as well vs. 18z run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Some of this is given to Indy and Dayton, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Spartman said: Some of this is given to Indy and Dayton, as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, cyclone77 said: I shit you not, I literally just saw his post, and thought to myself, someone should comment the facepalm guy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Spartman said: Some of this is given to Indy and Dayton, as well. A couple things about this. 1) posting consecutive 6 hour snow accum maps isn't very useful 2) that isn't even the latest run. It is the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: mimillman just blew a gasket 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Malacka11 said: I shit you not, I literally just saw his post, and thought to myself, someone should comment the facepalm guy It's starting to remind me of the never-ending spam calls about auto warranty expiring 4 times per day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Gonna back off a bit on the synoptic call. Originally went 6-8" but now I'd go 5-6" imby. As far as the lake effect Tuesday night/Wednesday, prelim guess on that is 2-4". So if both things work out, then it would be 7-10" by the end of Wednesday which would be delightful given how things have been going. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 hours ago, weathafella said: And GFS plunks 30 in BOS by d10. I missed a lot of big storms since moving to Michigan in 2005, but I did get 24” near Framingham a couple months before I moved in January 2005, and lucked out when visiting my parents the week of the firehose storm in March 2013(?) with 20”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Now we wait 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: A couple things about this. 1) posting consecutive 6 hour snow accum maps isn't very useful 2) that isn't even the latest run. It is the 12z run Remember, you said spam is maps spelled backwards. Best call yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Nest looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 35 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Nest looking good optimistic post by Alek at 5am with a storm incoming. That's a dam rare thing these days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 my expectations have been low synoptically for a while now (5.5 looking $$$ by the way) but the day or two of mood flakes from the lake on top of the fresh pack will be quality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Gonna back off a bit on the synoptic call. Originally went 6-8" but now I'd go 5-6" imby. As far as the lake effect Tuesday night/Wednesday, prelim guess on that is 2-4". So if both things work out, then it would be 7-10" by the end of Wednesday which would be delightful given how things have been going. pretty much my call exactly, although 4" of LES here would be high-end for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 7 hours ago, RogueWaves said: At least the drying and dying seem to have taken a pause. The bar is set so low for me personally, this will have to work really really hard to NOT be my biggest event of the season. You guys in SEMI on the other hand.. The bar is a 42hr duration 3.7” event. It’s a pretty low bar here too. I’d take the 6z hrrr and run and get about 4”. 2-4” here still seems like a good call. Honestly wonder if we’ll even get a WWA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Wherever that band sets up is going to see good 3 day totals along the lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: Wherever that band sets up is going to see good 3 day totals along the lakeshore. I think we'd both be p happy with the 6z GFS LES is so finicky here and there is never much room for error, you hope the colder guidance is right and you hope the weak wave passing south helps keep flow backed longer than expected If I had to pick, I'd go Northbrook south to Jefferson Park or so for max combined totals locally, feels like frictional convergence effects are maximized there locally in similarish setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, A-L-E-K said: I think we'd both be p happy with the 6z GFS LES is so finicky here and there is never much room for error, you hope the colder guidance is right and you hope the weak wave passing south helps keep flow backed longer than expected If I had to pick, I'd go Northbrook south to Jefferson Park or so for max combined totals locally, feels like frictional convergence effects are maximized there locally in similarish setups The number of times I've favored Cook county for LE and been disappointed is numerous. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 gonna be hard watching good returns over MO just get obliterated today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Final call 5". Snowfall this winter is a grind to come by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Final call 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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