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Jan 24-26th Potential Something Part 2


Chicago Storm
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17 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Idk, I'm still kind of hyped. I know a lot of the excitement died yesterday and today but looking through the models, I'm just glad that we can a hopefully get a solid 6"+. It's better than nothing, we could live in Indianapolis lol 

only today's runs with the continuous downtick in QPF were a drag. Even so, track pretty much unchanged and consistent since Friday's 12Z runs. Looks like a 5"-8" with some lollipops as forecast by LOT seems on track. If you counted on 12" + you'll be dissapointed. Very well could snow in some capacity in NE IL through Wednesday. Take it and run.

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For the GTA, it doesn't look anything exceptional like you guys in IA and IL. Have fun! 

Looking at the 3KM NAM, most of the snow should fall in a relatively short time frame along a fast moving FGEN band. The storm begins weakening rapidly as it move towards our area, so that FGEN band is our only window of opportunity. Potential is there for some lake enhancement but more towards Oakville-Hamilton. I'd go with 1-2" for Toronto proper, for now. 

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5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Agree without looking too deeply into it yet (which I'll be doing tonight) wherever the LES has longest residence time could even see up to 2-4", possibly 3-5" on the high end.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Fwiw, I agree with this take.  I'm not the met of course but do have a lot of years watching this kind of thing.  None of the parameters are jump off the page stuff, but certainly good enough for accumulating lake effect snow on Wed.  Looks like delta T could eventually get to around 16C or 17C amidst modest inversion heights and decent omega overlap in the DGZ.  Exact location still tbd but it looks like it could hang around somewhere for a good number of hours.

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Really not much to add from the Michigan side. Confluence from the northern wave diving in from Canada really starts to shear out the southern wave by the time it's approaching the area. Lose the good dynamics that areas farther west have. Probably will be contending with the northern edge of the mid level dryslot too on Tuesday. Some concern too of the low level flow from the ENE keeping some drier air in the mix for longer, eating away at the snow totals. Still look to get a period of moderate snow, but this is nowhere near how things looked a few days ago. Real chance today's overachiever ends up having higher totals imby than this storm. 2-4" looks good for now for SEMI. 

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9 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I wont be disappointed because I'll be in a coma by the time this starts! 

 

(real talk, the 00z suite isnt totally awful for our area, so we'll see...........)

I've been in a coma! Trends have just been brutal farther east. Hopefully someone out there scores

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9 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

Really not much to add from the Michigan side. Confluence from the northern wave diving in from Canada really starts to shear out the southern wave by the time it's approaching the area. Lose the good dynamics that areas farther west have. Probably will be contending with the northern edge of the mid level dryslot too on Tuesday. Some concern too of the low level flow from the ENE keeping some drier air in the mix for longer, eating away at the snow totals. Still look to get a period of moderate snow, but this is nowhere near how things looked a few days ago. Real chance today's overachiever ends up having higher totals imby than this storm. 2-4" looks good for now for SEMI. 

At least the drying and dying seem to have taken a pause. The bar is set so low for me personally, this will have to work really really hard to NOT be my biggest event of the season. You guys in SEMI on the other hand..

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