Radtechwxman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 TWC should call this Winter Storm Trashcan. Man trends for my area are just downright depressing. Lol. I can't manage a decent snow this winter. Hoping for more ice at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Idk, I'm still kind of hyped. I know a lot of the excitement died yesterday and today but looking through the models, I'm just glad that we can a hopefully get a solid 6"+. It's better than nothing, we could live in Indianapolis lol only today's runs with the continuous downtick in QPF were a drag. Even so, track pretty much unchanged and consistent since Friday's 12Z runs. Looks like a 5"-8" with some lollipops as forecast by LOT seems on track. If you counted on 12" + you'll be dissapointed. Very well could snow in some capacity in NE IL through Wednesday. Take it and run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 RGEM is north. This is turning into a north central Iowa special. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 RGEM is north. This is turning into a north central Iowa special.Definitely came in south and weaker.Precip was cut cut slightly, which made snow totals look north around here...but really only the heavier axis narrowed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 For the GTA, it doesn't look anything exceptional like you guys in IA and IL. Have fun! Looking at the 3KM NAM, most of the snow should fall in a relatively short time frame along a fast moving FGEN band. The storm begins weakening rapidly as it move towards our area, so that FGEN band is our only window of opportunity. Potential is there for some lake enhancement but more towards Oakville-Hamilton. I'd go with 1-2" for Toronto proper, for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 we rally tommorow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Agree without looking too deeply into it yet (which I'll be doing tonight) wherever the LES has longest residence time could even see up to 2-4", possibly 3-5" on the high end. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Fwiw, I agree with this take. I'm not the met of course but do have a lot of years watching this kind of thing. None of the parameters are jump off the page stuff, but certainly good enough for accumulating lake effect snow on Wed. Looks like delta T could eventually get to around 16C or 17C amidst modest inversion heights and decent omega overlap in the DGZ. Exact location still tbd but it looks like it could hang around somewhere for a good number of hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Definitely came in south and weaker. Precip was cut cut slightly, which made snow totals look north around here...but really only the heavier axis narrowed. . Hmm yea you’re right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Awaiting the continuing reality of “<Model> is <north/south> and drier.” 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Sciascia said: Awaiting the continuing reality of “<Model> is <north/south> and drier.” 0z GFS bumped south and is a bit drier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS bumped south and is a bit drier. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I will say this: never has a storm thread made me laugh like this before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 GFS continues to love lake enhancement for northern Cook & Lake counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Sciascia said: GFS continues to love lake enhancement for northern Cook & Lake counties. Less so than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 GFS...it’s drier but still fine 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: GFS...it’s drier but still fine Can “Drier But Still Fine” be the name for this winter storm? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Even the GFS has us getting 6+” in 24 hours. Have to imagine we’ll get at least an advisory with the overnight package 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 pivotal look locally and regionally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS bumped south and is a bit drier. Held serve for the places that matter! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Weatherbell really needs to tweak their Kuchera algorithm to bring it down to Earth. Their current maps always show nonsense totals. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: Held serve for the places that matter! Ready 2 b disappointed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, MIstorm97 said: Ready 2 b disappointed? I wont be disappointed because I'll be in a coma by the time this starts! (real talk, the 00z suite isnt totally awful for our area, so we'll see...........) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I don’t want to hear the word drier for anything anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Ooof, heartbreak for the Delmarva peninsula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Really not much to add from the Michigan side. Confluence from the northern wave diving in from Canada really starts to shear out the southern wave by the time it's approaching the area. Lose the good dynamics that areas farther west have. Probably will be contending with the northern edge of the mid level dryslot too on Tuesday. Some concern too of the low level flow from the ENE keeping some drier air in the mix for longer, eating away at the snow totals. Still look to get a period of moderate snow, but this is nowhere near how things looked a few days ago. Real chance today's overachiever ends up having higher totals imby than this storm. 2-4" looks good for now for SEMI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, hlcater said: I wont be disappointed because I'll be in a coma by the time this starts! (real talk, the 00z suite isnt totally awful for our area, so we'll see...........) I've been in a coma! Trends have just been brutal farther east. Hopefully someone out there scores Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said: Really not much to add from the Michigan side. Confluence from the northern wave diving in from Canada really starts to shear out the southern wave by the time it's approaching the area. Lose the good dynamics that areas farther west have. Probably will be contending with the northern edge of the mid level dryslot too on Tuesday. Some concern too of the low level flow from the ENE keeping some drier air in the mix for longer, eating away at the snow totals. Still look to get a period of moderate snow, but this is nowhere near how things looked a few days ago. Real chance today's overachiever ends up having higher totals imby than this storm. 2-4" looks good for now for SEMI. At least the drying and dying seem to have taken a pause. The bar is set so low for me personally, this will have to work really really hard to NOT be my biggest event of the season. You guys in SEMI on the other hand.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 29 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: I don’t want to hear the word drier for anything anymore. Dessication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 25 minutes ago, mimillman said: Ooof, heartbreak for the Delmarva peninsula And GFS plunks 30 in BOS by d10. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Final call for here/QC is 6-8" including what falls Wednesday. Nice to not have to worry about rain or ice mixing in for a change lol. Hopefully LM dumps on you guys up in Chi-town to make up for the misery up to this point this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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