blizzardof96 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said: Looking forward to the TSSN from SE NE and S IA videos on youtube following this. Nice to hear from you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 From OAX Regarding snowfall amounts, areas along the NE/SD border will see less than inch, if anything at all. Currently have Lincoln and Omaha/Council Bluffs along I80 around 9 inches through Tuesday morning, and 12 to 15 inches centered about 50 miles farther south around Nebraska City. The probability for 18" of snow at Neb City has now increased to about 15%, up from about 7% from the run last night. This information is available in graphic format on our winter website at weather.gov/oax/winter The heavy wet snow, combined with the northeast wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph could cause the some tree and power line damage. To add additional context, we`re forecasting record breaking daily precipitation (which includes melted snow) at both Lincoln and Omaha Monday. And snowfall could end up in the top 5-10 all time single day values if this pans out with the 9" expected, and ranked even higher if the axis shift slightly north. Interesting to note the all-time highest 1 day snowfall occurred Feb 11 1965, with 18.3" and 19" at Lincoln. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, blizzardof96 said: Nice to hear from you! Hey, thanks. Every once in a while I get the urge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I'm predicting that the 0z HRRR will be even drier than the 18z HRRR with CR only getting 3 inches. Have to wait and see. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, tuanis said: Thread has gone quiet. Maybe we're all relishing in the Packers' loss. Hate relying on lake effect/lake enhancement to make up for a less impressive synoptic system than progged. Can be so fickle. ....................../´¯/) ....................,/¯../ .................../..../ ............./´¯/'...'/´¯¯`·¸ ........../'/.../..../......./¨¯\ ........('(...´...´.... ¯~/'...') .........\.................'...../ ..........''...\.......... _.·´ ............\..............( ..............\.............\... 2 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18z NAM: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, Spartman said: 18z NAM: what 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Needs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 0z HRRR slightly south and slightly wetter. Shows 5 inches for CR via 10:1 method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: Going to have to watch this dry slot at 500mb closely tomorrow evening. A lot of today's guidance is showing a drying out of the dendritic growth zone and is no longer co-locating the best lift within that layer. Both of those things are negatives when it comes to snow-liquid ratios. The DGZ is just below 500mb but these RH plots are a good proxy for where there is better saturation, based on all the forecast soundings I've seen. GFS is on its own for the Chicago area. If the other guidance is right, precip will be showery by the time it reaches Chicago and could produce grainier snow w/ ratios as low as 5-6:1. That dry air at 500 mb can clearly be seen moving into southwest TX on mid-level W/V imagery. Looking at the various soundings, it certainly can be a negating factor to ratios tomorrow evening as you point out. If you look at some of the 00z soundings from the southwest like El Paso, Midland, Del Rio, and Albuquerque, also being advected northeastward with the dry layer at 500 mb will be very steep mid and upper level lapse rates, which can be seen on local forecast soundings tomorrow evening (lapse rates of 7.5 to 9C/km, depending on which model you look at. The possibility of upright or slantwise convection as the snow arrives tomorrow evening is a wild card in terms of the rates we'll get. If convection occurs, it's difficult to predict how the profile will be modified. If the dry air wins out, that will certainly be very detrimental to snow ratios and amounts tomorrow evening. On the other hand, I'm not sure we can safely assume that in the presence of such steep lapse rates that convection won't enable re-saturation up there and help produce heavier rates. Something to watch. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, Natester said: 0z HRRR slightly south and slightly wetter. Shows 5 inches for CR via 10:1 method. Meaning Cincinnati is the pick spot for the snowfall of all the state of Ohio. The northern parts of the state, like Toledo, are unfortunately screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Interesting stalled northward progression of precip in IL/IN between 18z and 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 NAM starts off terrible and then improves. SREF down below 6” at ORD but that’s largely due to clunkers with majority of members 6-9” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 46 minutes ago, IllinoisWedges said: what 1 hour ago, Spartman said: 18z NAM: 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Castaway said: Close to being gone. Very little snow for Ohio on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 It actually breaks off lower stream of moisture? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, mimillman said: NAM starts off terrible and then improves. SREF down below 6” at ORD but that’s largely due to clunkers with majority of members 6-9” I like the look of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Well, the 0z NAM seems to have stopped the bleeding. Overall, certainly not drier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The NAM is a mystery. The 12z had nothing in Waterloo (IA). The 00z has nearly a foot in Waterloo. It has heavier snow well to the northwest of Cedar Rapids than it does in Cedar Rapids or Iowa City. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: The NAM is a mystery. The 12z had nothing in Waterloo (IA). The 00z has nearly a foot in Waterloo. It has heavier snow well to the northwest of Cedar Rapids than it does in Cedar Rapids or Iowa City. ride it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Natester said: What about February 5-6, 2008? I swear we got a foot from that. Man that was the ultimate nut storm around here. Got about 18” at my house iirc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 It looks like a different system entirely. Main defo makes it to Madison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 This model madness has us pretty close to simply nowcasting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: It looks like a different system entirely. Main defo makes it to Madison With more of a pivot of the defo band here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Solid LE for Hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Idk, I'm still kind of hyped. I know a lot of the excitement died yesterday and today but looking through the models, I'm just glad that we can a hopefully get a solid 6"+. It's better than nothing, we could live in Indianapolis lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Solid LE for Hoosier Yeah, plume kinda stalls out here on Wednesday. I had been favoring the IL side for it so will have to dig into it more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Can’t wait to luck ourselves into a warning criteria storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 hours ago, Harry Perry said: I’m ready for the “general 2-4” snowfall”. WWA per GRR, spot on. I believe they are accounting for continued bleeding as well. No, it's just the usual GRR "discounting" which may actually work in their favor with this one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Quite the difference between 12k and 3k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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