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Jan 24-26th Potential Something Part 2


Chicago Storm
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Just now, mimillman said:

RGEM quite aggressive with the Wednesday lake effect. It’s going to be snowing here for like 36 hours

Are there any specific maps or charts that focus in the lake effect side of things separately from the main event (know they are really all combined).

Asking as I’m in far NE Kane county in IL and there are times the lake enhancement even helps us out here around 30 miles from the lakeshore.

 

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Just now, tuanis said:

Thread has gone quiet. Maybe we're all relishing in the Packers' loss. :popcorn:

Hate relying on lake effect/lake enhancement to make up for a less impressive synoptic system than progged. Can be so fickle.

T-20 hours and 30 minutes between posts.

He's dead Jim - Memes

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Just now, Cary67 said:

Someone should keep track of systems modeled to produce big snows meaning double digits inside 78hrs. Bet the rate of verification is pretty low. 

without a doubt. But I never really considered this a double digit event. And actually LOT never has either in any discussion regarding amounts. Hoping to hold onto a 4-8 event at this point.

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Going to have to watch this dry slot at 500mb closely tomorrow evening. A lot of today's guidance is showing a drying out of the dendritic growth zone and is no longer co-locating the best lift within that layer. Both of those things are negatives when it comes to snow-liquid ratios. The DGZ is just below 500mb but these RH plots are a good proxy for where there is better saturation, based on all the forecast soundings I've seen. GFS is on its own for the Chicago area. If the other guidance is right, precip will be showery by the time it reaches Chicago and could produce grainier snow w/ ratios as low as 5-6:1. 

models-2021012418-f030.500rh.us_mw.gif.39517e93632cf123925f1a673ae1c3e7.gif 

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2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Going to have to watch this dry slot at 500mb closely tomorrow evening. A lot of today's guidance is showing a drying out of the dendritic growth zone and is no longer co-locating the best lift within that layer. Both of those things are negatives when it comes to snow-liquid ratios. The DGZ is just below 500mb but these RH plots are a good proxy for where there is better saturation, based on all the forecast soundings I've seen. GFS is on its own for the Chicago area. If the other guidance is right, precip will be showery by the time it reaches Chicago and could produce grainier snow w/ ratios as low as 5-6:1. models-2021012418-f030.500rh.us_mw.gif.39517e93632cf123925f1a673ae1c3e7.gif 

Relying on good ratios is similar to relying on lake effect in that more often than not you're going to be disappointed. 

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Just getting caught up on the afternoon developments.  Was hoping to get the winter storm warning here instead of an advisory, but it's an understandable move by LOT.  And I am so far north in Lake county Indiana that I think I am still in the game for 6", as long as 1) the dry slot doesn't race in too quickly and 2) mixing doesn't occur prior to the dry slot approach.  Close call and I'd certainly expect just north of here to reach 6" if I don't.

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Looking at the trends and 18z guidance, gonna have to lower my call for IC from 8" to 6". Might need to readjust again tomorrow morning in either direction if necessary. I question how good of banding/rates/dynamics we're really gonna see out of a low that is rapidly weakening and am making an assumption (perhaps ill informed) that these features will underperform. 

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