mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: It's a shame a strong system with a favorable track has to be in full weaken mode as it moves through. For my area, it's just a question of how quickly the snow band weakens. I'm going with 5-7" here. In Cedar Rapids? Lowball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Looks like some lake effect potential Wednesday night in Chicago also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Chicago Storm can you please post the 12z Euro Kuchera run if you have it? thanksHere's the Pivotal Wx Kuchera output for the 12z EuroSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Still a very respectable storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Looks like PW is around 12:1 LSR vs 15:1 LSR on WXB per my quick calculations. Will be interesting to see which one wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Our criteria for WSW verification is 6"/12 hours and 8"/24 hours. That might be tough to accomplish verification wise, or maybe the pendulum does swing back guidance wise. Either way, I think there's enough evidence to largely stay the course with amounts. Our primary QPF input is WPC and they apply time lagging to their QPF. I also think they mostly stay the course in light of the GEFS and prior runs of the EPS justifying that. Hopefully the new EPS doesn't cut back much. Regarding what headline we issue today, we've noticed that issuing an advisory after having issued a watch can be found confusing to the public. I'm not part of the decision making process on the headline, but my speculation is that our intent is to issue a warning even if we don't technically meet WSW criteria. I'm very confident DVN will issue a WSW. When you throw in the wind impacts on top of having the largest snowfall for most of the metro since 2018 or 2019, that should support going with a WSW. And you certainly don’t want to get caught with your pants down in a situation where you go from watch, to advisory, only to have warning criteria verify and have to upgrade mid storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks like some lake effect potential Wednesday night in Chicago also Really. Tell me more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like PW is around 12:1 LSR vs 15:1 LSR on WXB per my quick calculations. Will be interesting to see which one wins out. Easily Pivotal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Probably should issue WWA for central Indiana given what I am seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I recall in the past, that little "mesolows" can set up out over the lake and pump moisture back into the region. Are these small/local features generally picked up on models? Or are these a as it happens type of thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 And you certainly don’t want to get caught with your pants down in a situation where you go from watch, to advisory, only to have warning criteria verify and have to upgrade mid storm. Excellent point. As an agency we're also moving away from always trying to strictly adhere to criteria for headlines and leaning toward impact based headlines. The people don't know why we have certain criteria. If we get close to forecast snowfall in this event, plus the wind, that will feel like a warning event. We'll see what they do but my gut is they go WSW. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Excellent point. As an agency we're also moving away from always trying to strictly adhere to criteria for headlines and leaning toward impact based headlines. The people don't know why we have certain criteria. If we get close to forecast snowfall in this event, plus the wind, that will feel like a warning event. We'll see what they do but my gut is they go WSW. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Makes sense.. a 5 inch peak storm during morning commute is much different than a peak middle of night..etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 15 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Excellent point. As an agency we're also moving away from always trying to strictly adhere to criteria for headlines and leaning toward impact based headlines. The people don't know why we have certain criteria. If we get close to forecast snowfall in this event, plus the wind, that will feel like a warning event. We'll see what they do but my gut is they go WSW. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yes, impacts are more important than meeting criteria, especially when it's close. Our office has been trying to educate people that going from watch to advisory is not a downgrade. It was part of our winter wx preparedness campaign before this season started. A watch is issued for awareness to the potential for significant winter wx. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Crazy that GHD 1 dropped 16” in IC but less then a foot in CR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 21 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: I recall in the past, that little "mesolows" can set up out over the lake and pump moisture back into the region. Are these small/local features generally picked up on models? Or are these a as it happens type of thing? Hi-res models can pick it up, but they are notoriously difficult to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, mimillman said: Gonna be at least a week before either of us have anything to track Next weekend in the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Next weekend in the east. Fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Crazy that GHD 1 dropped 16” in IC but less then a foot in CR. We were just a bit too far nw. We got into the general heavy precip shield, but the very heavy, enhanced band set up just east/southeast of Cedar Rapids. I recorded 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z EPS Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z EPS Mean . Growing confidence Lake and Cook counties will be QPF maxes in N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 time for a call: 6.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 lastest SREF Plume for ORD is down to 6.80 with only 1 member now below 5 with approx 9 members between 6 and 10. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 42 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Probably should issue WWA for central Indiana given what I am seeing Agree. Things looking better for a little thump of wintry weather there and timed during the daytime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 As posted by others, timing seems to be the bigger impact vs. double digit amounts. For most in N IL, this will be the biggest impacting system in 2 years so props to the NWS for not being sticklers to the “warning criteria”. Regardless of the totals going from 15 to 8 to 6 or others in between the fact that there was a good idea of the storm location days in advance is the biggest win in my layman’s view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 20 minutes ago, mimillman said: Fish Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 The 10:1 HRRR map shows the exact same feature as the 12z Euro. The precip shield begins to quickly dry up as it moves up into east-central Iowa. This is looking more like a garden-variety moderate storm for Cedar Rapids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Agree. Things looking better for a little thump of wintry weather there and timed during the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 18z NAM bumped north. And the least surprising news of the day, it’s drier once again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Avg in the plumes at ORD now down to 6.5" Only 2 above 10 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, RyanDe680 said: Avg in the plumes at ORD now down to 6.5" Only 2 above 10 now Makes sense and sounds right given the trends. My initial call a couple days ago for 6-12" will hold, but highly likely to be on the lower end of that. NWS 6-9" in watch text is pretty spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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