mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: These are still solid warning criteria snows across DVN and LOT, and if you look closely mostly 10:1 ratios in LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 would love to know how much precip the 6z run of the Euro put out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Are we gonna consider Mon/Tue as the "storm total" at ORD? Not that it's a big deal but let's say 9" occurs on Mon/Tue and then 1.3" or something on Wed/Thu with lake effect. That would bring the 4 day total to 10.3" but it would feel cheap to call that a 10" storm. That will be a question for @RCNYILWX, as LOT would handle that decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: You've done well on every storm, I'm sure you'll do pretty well on this one. I wouldn't worry too much if I were you. I’m sure we will, but as I said last night, I was hoping for a shot at some truly impressive snows, so the trend towards something more garden variety (7-8”) is pretty crummy. Especially when considering the potential that was on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: would love to know how much precip the 6z run of the Euro put out 6z on the right. 12z on the left (thru 20z Tuesday) 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: Most noticeable difference is as cross DVN and south central Iowa. The lake is becoming increasingly important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Chicago WX said: 6z on the right. 12z on the left. thanks i missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, hlcater said: I’m sure we will, but as I said last night, I was hoping for a shot at some truly impressive snows, so the trend towards something more garden variety (7-8”) is pretty crummy. Especially when considering the potential that was on the table. Understandable, but you've had more than double most of the Chicago posters - and, without the lake, my concern is the drying trend on this side of the Mississippi. You're at least close enough to the better dynamics that you might manage more than you expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: That will be a question for @RCNYILWX, as LOT would handle that decision. Any lake effect Wednesday and Thursday will be largely due to the system passing south of us and not the system tomorrow and Tuesday, so I can't fathom doing a 4-day total for something like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Iowa people are spoiled when 7-8” is garden variety. Many LOT peeps jonesing for that much snow in one storm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Chicago WX said: Iowa people are spoiled when 7-8” is garden variety. Many LOT peeps jonesing for that much snow in one storm. And that's on top of 2"+ that fell early this morning lol. Definitely been an Iowa/MN winter up to this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago WX said: Iowa people are spoiled when 7-8” is garden variety. Many LOT peeps jonesing for that much snow in one storm. the derecho was just the start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, hlcater said: I’m sure we will, but as I said last night, I was hoping for a shot at some truly impressive snows, so the trend towards something more garden variety (7-8”) is pretty crummy. Especially when considering the potential that was on the table. Time for you to swap with StormfanaticInd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 That will be a question for [mention=3997]RCNYILWX[/mention], as LOT would handle that decision.I'm sure it would be for the Monday-Tuesday period for the event. Any additional snow could be counted as a 4-day total but I think the 2-day total would be what we use for PNS and LSRs. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: the derecho was just the start. Lol, you’re right. Iowa is the king of all fun weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Iowa people are spoiled when 7-8” is garden variety. Many LOT peeps jonesing for that much snow in one storm. In most other cases I wouldn’t be lol but I was hoping that CR could end their 40 year 12” storm drought with this storm, as it looked like a possibility yesterday. Certainly not going to complain with 7-8”, just was hoping that those runs with 12” to the river would be realized. Been awhile since Iowa has had such luck with storms and will likely be awhile until it happens again, which is why I am relatively disappointed with the outcome here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I'm wondering if moisture is being under modeled since we were missing crucial sampling this morning. I know the trends are for this to weaken a bit faster but moisture feed into system should still be sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I'm wondering if moisture is being under modeled since we were missing crucial sampling this morning. I know the trends are for this to weaken a bit faster but moisture feed into system should still be sufficient. We've seen models go too far in one direction in the past, only to correct back the other direction as we close in on the event. Definitely still time for the pendulum to swing back in the other direction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, cyclone77 said: We've seen models go to far in one direction in the past, only to correct back the other direction as we close in on the event. Definitely still time for the pendulum to swing back in the other direction. Wouldn't be surprised to see a swing back towards a bit more QPF in 00z or even 12z tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I’ll stick with my 6.5” MBY call, but I’m not feeling too confident. This morning’s turd duster was all needles and while tomorrow’s an entirely different system and moisture source, I imagine that while the initial push may impress - dry air, diminishing radar returns, and poor accumulation efficiency will plague the rest of the event, even with modest lake contribution. Due to duration and anticipated light/moderate rates I would think LOT goes with an advisory and MKE does the same for its southern tier of counties. Funny, a day or so ago people were talking blizzard conditions. At least it should end up being better than anything else we’ve seen this winter. I hope! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, tuanis said: I’ll stick with my 6.5” MBY call, but I’m not feeling too confident. This morning’s turd duster was all needles and while tomorrow’s an entirely different system and moisture source, I imagine that while the initial push may impress - dry air, diminishing radar returns, and poor accumulation efficiency will plague the rest of the event, even with modest lake contribution. Due to duration and anticipated light/moderate rates I would think LOT goes with an advisory and MKE does the same for its southern tier of counties. Funny, a day or so ago people were talking blizzard conditions. At least it should end up being better than anything else we’ve seen this winter. I hope! I sincerely doubt LOT goes with an advisory for the largest storm in the metro in 3 years and the largest event by far of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: I sincerely doubt LOT goes with an advisory for the largest storm in the metro in 3 years and the largest event by far of the season. Tough call for sure. I could see the initial burst of snow maybe getting close to 6-hour warning criteria, but rates look to drop off pretty quick. Glad I’m not making the call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I'm going with 2-4in in central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Most cases we are focused on how much the low strengthens as it heads northeast, but in this case we're focused on how quickly a weakens and gets torn apart. Is there a precedent for this scenario as reference? or how accurate do models predict the weakening of storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, mimillman said: I sincerely doubt LOT goes with an advisory for the largest storm in the metro in 3 years and the largest event by far of the season. Agree. The overall lack of warning criteria events this season plus wind component will make them go with a warning imo, even if they are not so confident on amounts meeting the threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I sincerely doubt LOT goes with an advisory for the largest storm in the metro in 3 years and the largest event by far of the season.Our criteria for WSW verification is 6"/12 hours and 8"/24 hours. That might be tough to accomplish verification wise, or maybe the pendulum does swing back guidance wise. Either way, I think there's enough evidence to largely stay the course with amounts. Our primary QPF input is WPC and they apply time lagging to their QPF. I also think they mostly stay the course in light of the GEFS and prior runs of the EPS justifying that. Hopefully the new EPS doesn't cut back much. Regarding what headline we issue today, we've noticed that issuing an advisory after having issued a watch can be found confusing to the public. I'm not part of the decision making process on the headline, but my speculation is that our intent is to issue a warning even if we don't technically meet WSW criteria. I'm very confident DVN will issue a WSW. When you throw in the wind impacts on top of having the largest snowfall for most of the metro since 2018 or 2019, that should support going with a WSW. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Chicago Storm can you please post the 12z Euro Kuchera run if you have it? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 18 minutes ago, mimillman said: Wouldn't be surprised to see a swing back towards a bit more QPF in 00z or even 12z tomorrow. I know it's not possible, but would love it if we could see what the differences would have been with the full RAOB network for each particular run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 Chicago Storm can you please post the 12z Euro Kuchera run if you have it? thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It's a shame a strong system with a favorable track has to be in full weaken mode as it moves through. For my area, it's just a question of how quickly the snow band weakens. I'm going with 5-7" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: Chicago Storm can you please post the 12z Euro Kuchera run if you have it? thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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