Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z GEFS Mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: next time know what you're talking about first, before trying to claim an lol victory. see above. That’s why I shut up. I ain’t bright enough with this stuff to post predictions or what ifs. I’ll leave that to the people who understand this better than I. now if you want to know how to allocate your 401k, I got you. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Damn if only the low didn’t fill so quickly. I mean it is possible that models are overdoing the speed of decay, but I don’t really want to count on that. Gonna hold with my call of 8” for IC for now. Looking like the winners are SE NE and SW IA. I picked up 2.4” overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 31 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: RAP Trash. You haven’t called bust yet though so my prophecy hasn’t been fulfilled. You’re the last hold out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 32 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: channeling your inner angrysummons here. yes, everyone did know the storm was going to shear apart with eastward extent. i'm not sure there is anyone here that didn't believe that. however, the trend for the storm to end up further northwest in the plains due to additional ridging (in part) is not something that was originally modeled...and is part of why it is shearing out faster as it heads east. please share your crystal ball next time. Red flag when folks we're saying it was looking farther north/w at 42 hrs last night but it wasn't translating east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Trash. You haven’t called bust yet though so my prophecy hasn’t been fulfilled. You’re the last hold out i'm still waiting for eurythmics time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 How many people would be instabanned if Chicago Storm were a moderator? Over/under 25 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 we need RC to pop in for emotional support. Despite some of the needless trolling 5-8 or 6-10 was always sort of my thoughts. Hopefully, we can hold tight or get a bump up before commencement. Didn't really see anyone in here booking 12" +. And hard to call underperformer of overperformer 24 hours before the event is to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 All good. Probably 6+. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Will be curious to see what the character of the snow is like. Will it be that heavy, wet stuff that plasters very well to everything or stuff that is fairly dense but a little less good at plastering. I am leaning toward the latter. If surface temps were near freezing, I'd be more inclined to go with the heavy plastering, but it looks like mostly a 30F or colder snowfall here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: All good. Probably 6+. Defo will probably be 4-6”. Backside/lake will be another 2-4” that’s my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: All good. Probably 6+. Agree. As long as ORD has a representative measurement, which has been suggested it will this time, then 7-10" still achievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: How many people would be instabanned if Chicago Storm were a moderator? Over/under 25 My Jerry Taftesque predictions with little evidence to back it up would put me in a precarious position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Agree. As long as ORD has a representative measurement, which has been suggested it will this time, then 7-10" still achievable. i refuse to back it a 3rd time, just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Will be curious to see what the character of the snow is like. Will it be that heavy, wet stuff that plasters very well to everything or stuff that is fairly dense but a little less good at plastering. I am leaning toward the latter. If surface temps were near freezing, I'd be more inclined to go with the heavy plastering, but it looks like mostly a 30F or colder snowfall here. LOT yesterday:"THE SNOW TYPE WILL BE A WETTER ONE, WITH RATIOS IN THE 7:1 TO 10:1 POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE RATIOS INCH SLOWER UP UNDER COOLING MID-LEVEL PROFILES. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH MONDAY NIGHT (NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE), THIS SEEMS LIKE IT COULD BE THE CHARACTER OF EVENT WHERE WET SNOW IS PLASTERED ON SIGNS/STOPLIGHTS/WINDOWS." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cary67 said: My Jerry Taftesque predictions with little evidence to back it up would put me in a precarious position RIP to Chicago's anti snow weenie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Baum said: LOT yesterday:"THE SNOW TYPE WILL BE A WETTER ONE, WITH RATIOS IN THE 7:1 TO 10:1 POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE RATIOS INCH SLOWER UP UNDER COOLING MID-LEVEL PROFILES. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH MONDAY NIGHT (NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE), THIS SEEMS LIKE IT COULD BE THE CHARACTER OF EVENT WHERE WET SNOW IS PLASTERED ON SIGNS/STOPLIGHTS/WINDOWS." I know that Ricky's thoughts were higher. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: Defo will probably be 4-6”. Backside/lake will be another 2-4” that’s my guess Agree. My eyes are turning east for late week and beyond.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Agree. My eyes are turning east for late week and beyond.... Gonna be at least a week before either of us have anything to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 NBM through 00z Tue. Nice radar representation along the I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: i refuse to back it a 3rd time, just in case. Are we gonna consider Mon/Tue as the "storm total" at ORD? Not that it's a big deal but let's say 9" occurs on Mon/Tue and then 1.3" or something on Wed/Thu with lake effect. That would bring the 4 day total to 10.3" but it would feel cheap to call that a 10" storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z Euro a tick south and drier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 preemptive strike. Euro bumps north and drier. dammit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 To the models, please! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Most noticeable difference is as cross DVN and south central Iowa. The lake is becoming increasingly important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro is nasty. Forecasting half the totals that were originally forecast yesterday, even when including the first system. That’s a pretty remarkable drying on that model. I’d love for the GFS to be right, but it stands alone in bringing solid snows to the Mississippi. The trends have really screwed E IA in the big snow department. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, hlcater said: Euro is nasty. Forecasting half the totals that were originally forecast yesterday, even when including the first system. That’s a pretty remarkable drying on that model. I’d love for the GFS to be right, but it stands alone in bringing solid snows to the Mississippi. The trends have really screwed E IA in the big snow department. You've done well on every storm, I'm sure you'll do pretty well on this one. I wouldn't worry too much if I were you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, mimillman said: Most noticeable difference is as cross DVN and south central Iowa. The lake is becoming increasingly important Time 2 put the bathtub to work 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Are we gonna consider Mon/Tue as the "storm total" at ORD? Not that it's a big deal but let's say 9" occurs on Mon/Tue and then 1.3" or something on Wed/Thu with lake effect. That would bring the 4 day total to 10.3" but it would feel cheap to call that a 10" storm. I'm betting we won't have to worry about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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