SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Plumes looking good at ORD, group of clunkers shrinking Mean of 6” at DKB, even with the clunkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 36 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Eh, I've been resigned to this not being a "clean" storm for here, for awhile. Would take a minor miracle for it to be all snow at this point. Overnight LOT AFD seems to indicate any freezing/non-snow frozen precip will be NBD here, with rain taking over. GFS hug, seemingly. Not sure I'd go that far yet, but further adjustments north might be the play...as they typically are with these types of systems. Oh well, onto to the next one for me I guess. Good luck to those up north... I was sucked in for a second. We can always hope for the dry slot to cut down rain totals. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, vortex said: I was sucked in for a second. We can always hope for the dry slot to cut down rain totals. haha Lol, me too. Though I knew it was foolish. Nothing worse than 33 and rain while those just to the north are pounding snow. Alas, maybe it’ll keep Hoosier from posting those dumb drought maps. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCIWxGuy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The 12z NAM has entered the chat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Oh hey NAM 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, NCIWxGuy said: The 12z NAM has entered the chat. Still worlds away from other guidance. Does nicely for those in the Northern 1/3 of IL/IN/OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Early take 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Does the shearing weaken it, or just stretch it out? Or both I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Early take Lowball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 You blame them though? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Still going some after this. Still feel like QPF underdone east of the Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: Lowball Maybe.. but it's still WSW criteria to get word out . and the amounts can always be upped later as needed. I think it may stand on it's own tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Kuchera printing around 12:1 ratios fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Does the NAM pick on Orthographic Lift?? Why do you suppose it's boosts totals in SE MI?? There is a Glacial Ridge in the spot.....Curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I know this shouldn’t come as a surprise to me but man has the NAM been horrendous with this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I never been a fan of the kuchera method/maps..I know they're supposed to be more accurate, but can't recall a time where there were big differences and it verified over the 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Does the NAM pick on Orthographic Lift?? Why do you suppose it's boosts totals in SE MI?? There is a Glacial Ridge in the spot.....Curious. The NAM is predicting 1-3" tomorrow here in SE Michigan from the first little system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: I never been a fan of the kuchera method/maps..I know they're supposed to be more accurate, but can't recall a time where there were big differences and it verified over the 10:1 There is not a big difference here. 0.8” of QPF putting down 9” is pretty realistic for a late afternoon - evening event in mid January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Still going some after this. Still feel like QPF underdone east of the Mississippi It’s just not supported right now. On just about all guidance (minus several ENS), the wave still peaks out west and then steadily shears...and that’s what we’re going to get if that occurs.We had an even in the eastern part of our region like this years ago, might have been late 2000’s. System shredded fairly rapidly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: The NAM is predicting 1-3" tomorrow here in SE Michigan from the first little system. it seems its turning into a prolonged lighter snow? its hanging around longer on the models but heaviness seems sheared as some have mentioned. Kinda mad its losing its punch but as long as we get a nice blanket of white ill he happy. This is the year of the 2-4" snows lol. Last winter everyone complained yet we still had 2-3 storms of 6+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, michsnowfreak said: it seems its turning into a prolonged lighter snow? its hanging around longer on the models but heaviness seems sheared as some have mentioned. Kinda mad its losing its punch but as long as we get a nice blanket of white ill he happy. This is the year of the 2-4" snows lol. Last winter everyone complained yet we still had 2-3 storms of 6+ I mean pretty good thump of snow into Tuesday Morning and then yeah after that we slowly crawl to above 6" NAM verbatim. But you and me bro I am just happy we look to be getting over 3" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 What would delay the weakening? In other words, what would we need to see that could keep this going through the sub?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 RGEM joins the party! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 What would delay the weakening? In other words, what would we need to see that could keep this going through the sub??If the confluence can slacken a bit over the Lakes, that would likely help. However, that could also lead to a bump north as it pushes east of the Mississippi.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It’s just not supported right now. On just about all guidance (minus several ENS), the wave still peaks out west and then steadily shears...and that’s what we’re going to get if that occurs. We had an even in the eastern part of our region like this years ago, might have been late 2000’s. System shredded fairly rapidly. . Yea I guess the question is, do you believe that solution. I know the NAM is not alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: I mean pretty good thump of snow into Tuesday Morning and then yeah after that we slowly crawl to above 6" NAM verbatim. But you and me bro I am just happy we look to be getting over 3" of snow! Event after event, whether it's small or large, it just boggles my mind how often we weenies look at storms that show up on the long range models and even when a threat is legit, until zero hour there are ridiculous swings. Look at that intense snow squall in Chicago the other night, a few days prior to that you thought maybe they would pick up a snow shower at best. Look at our East Side 3 to 4" snowfall on christmas. The news was literally telling people Christmas Eve morning we might see a few flurries but nothing to whiten the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12z RGEM liking ALEK 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 If the confluence can slacken a bit over the Lakes, that would likely help. However, that could also lead to a bump north as it pushes east of the Mississippi..And the new 12z RGEM does exactly this...A bit less confluence in the Lakes/Northeast, which allows shearing of the wave to occur a bit later. This makes for heavier totals further east, east of the Mississippi...but also allowed for a bump north as well.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 No matter the solution, hopefully ORD has corrected their recent track record of 2-inches-lower-than-measured-a-block-away snowfall measurement issues. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, michsnowfreak said: Event after event, whether it's small or large, it just boggles my mind how often we weenies look at storms that show up on the long range models and even when a threat is legit, until zero hour there are ridiculous swings. Look at that intense snow squall in Chicago the other night, a few days prior to that you thought maybe they would pick up a snow shower at best. Look at our East Side 3 to 4" snowfall on christmas. The news was literally telling people Christmas Eve morning we might see a few flurries but nothing to whiten the ground. Even Christmas Eve Night Channel 4 had everyone getting less than an inch LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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