Cary67 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 LOT has 5-8" for northern tier counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Cary67 said: LOT has 5-8" for northern tier counties Away from the lake that sounds fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 my work is almost done here. Going to pop over to the January 26th storm thread and see if I can weaken the block and push it north. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS keeps it snowing through Thursday lakeside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Was pretty confident in a 10" storm yesterday, still could happen but looking more like a 6-9" type storm. Still solid, and will be the best in a few seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Was pretty confident in a 10" storm yesterday, still could happen but looking more like a 6-9" type storm. Still solid, and will be the best in a few seasons. Sadly our 6 year double digit drought continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Sadly our 6 year double digit drought continues We've had some ultra dogs over the past 10 years, so I'm good with it. Give me a 6"+ storm in a season and that's good enough for me to get my "fix" lol. Of course would love another 10"+ but those are much harder to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 One thing that we have seen change over time is for the storm system to end up further northwest in the Plains, as it ejects out and gets caught in a bit of ridge that extends back up into the Rockies and BC/Alberta. This allows the storm system to peak sooner while out west, before hitting the wall and quickly shearing off to the east. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z GEM with a solid bump north and drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 18 minutes ago, mimillman said: Sadly our 6 year double digit drought continues and the beat goes on, hopefully the lake keeps my call from verifying, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GEM with a solid bump north and drier. GEM and RGEM have consistently been on the far northern end of guidance since the initial bump north. It’s worrying but with rest guidance centered well south think we’re fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Was pretty confident in a 10" storm yesterday, still could happen but looking more like a 6-9" type storm. Still solid, and will be the best in a few seasons. This is the problem with most of this thread. It’s been obvious for days that this thing was going to shear apart as it traveled east & with each day the models continued to show a weaker storm once the low pressure center moved into the Ohio Valley. Combine that with mixing issues as the column saturates & questions over the amount of ice aloft always led me to doubt snowfall totals that were shown on the models. This was always going to be a 4-8” storm in the main swath for IL/IN/MI. I am a little let down at how bad this has trended for the Toledo area, 2-4” is disappointing to say the least. KS/MO/IA look to be in for a heck of a Plains event though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GEM, similar to the GFS, keeps the lake effect going through Thursday. Any met want to chime in on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, nwohweather said: This is the problem with most of this thread. It’s been obvious for days that this thing was going to shear apart as it traveled east & with each day the models continued to show a weaker storm once the low pressure center moved into the Ohio Valley. Combine that with mixing issues as the column saturates & questions over the amount of ice aloft always led me to doubt snowfall totals that were shown on the models. This was always going to be a 4-8” storm in the main swath for IL/IN/MI. I am a little let down at how bad this has trended for the Toledo area, 2-4” is disappointing to say the least. KS/MO/IA look to be in for a heck of a Plains event though channeling your inner angrysummons here. yes, everyone did know the storm was going to shear apart with eastward extent. i'm not sure there is anyone here that didn't believe that. however, the trend for the storm to end up further northwest in the plains due to additional ridging (in part) is not something that was originally modeled...and is part of why it is shearing out faster as it heads east. please share your crystal ball next time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: please share your crystal ball next time. counterpoint: post here 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I don't see CR getting 6 inches from this storm. I'd say we'd get 4-5 inches from this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Models aside,. What's our hunch on this one now for ORD? Under performance from current forecast? or spot on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 40 minutes ago, mimillman said: Sadly our 6 year double digit drought continues Speaking of that, it's been 11 years since we had a 10"+ inch storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, mimillman said: GEM, similar to the GFS, keeps the lake effect going through Thursday. Any met want to chime in on that? Entirely reasonable to see it wax and wane between Tuesday eve and Thursday AM. We're also bleeding in colder air from the north such that Wed night could be the better performer for lake effect (longest fetch with a connection to Superior, least shear, most favorable temps and some modest upper level support from the next wave). Edited to note there are timing differences on the passage of that upper trough, which will affect when the lake shuts off on the west side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z UKMET bumped north and drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, ChiTownSnow said: Models aside,. What's our hunch on this one now for ORD? Under performance from current forecast? or spot on? As long as it hits 6 inches, which feels like a fairly safe bet to make, it’ll hit the low end of LOT’s current forecast. Doesn’t seem likely to hit double digits around town, which is a shame considering that was the prediction I decided to make yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, nwohweather said: This is the problem with most of this thread. It’s been obvious for days that this thing was going to shear apart as it traveled east & with each day the models continued to show a weaker storm once the low pressure center moved into the Ohio Valley. Combine that with mixing issues as the column saturates & questions over the amount of ice aloft always led me to doubt snowfall totals that were shown on the models. This was always going to be a 4-8” storm in the main swath for IL/IN/MI. I am a little let down at how bad this has trended for the Toledo area, 2-4” is disappointing to say the least. KS/MO/IA look to be in for a heck of a Plains event though Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 18 minutes ago, nwohweather said: This is the problem with most of this thread. It’s been obvious for days that this thing was going to shear apart as it traveled east & with each day the models continued to show a weaker storm once the low pressure center moved into the Ohio Valley. Combine that with mixing issues as the column saturates & questions over the amount of ice aloft always led me to doubt snowfall totals that were shown on the models. This was always going to be a 4-8” storm in the main swath for IL/IN/MI. I am a little let down at how bad this has trended for the Toledo area, 2-4” is disappointing to say the least. KS/MO/IA look to be in for a heck of a Plains event though A terrific post.... If it was posted 2 days ago with confidence 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, nwohweather said: This is the problem with most of this thread. It’s been obvious for days that this thing was going to shear apart as it traveled east & with each day the models continued to show a weaker storm once the low pressure center moved into the Ohio Valley. Combine that with mixing issues as the column saturates & questions over the amount of ice aloft always led me to doubt snowfall totals that were shown on the models. This was always going to be a 4-8” storm in the main swath for IL/IN/MI. I am a little let down at how bad this has trended for the Toledo area, 2-4” is disappointing to say the least. KS/MO/IA look to be in for a heck of a Plains event though 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Plumes tick up 0z 1/28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: RAP Hmmm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: A terrific post.... If it was posted 2 days ago with confidence 23 hours ago, nwohweather said: Nice to see the models becoming more realistic with a SW/NE tilt to the snow swath. 4-8" is the solid call for NW Ohio/SE Michigan with higher amounts possible to the west, but certainly expect this one to underperform. Weakening system on approach with mixing issues as the column saturates will make this more of a 4-6" in all likelihood. I started hammering this underperforming hard yesterday as we moved into the short range. I also have acknowledged that I didn't expect the precipitation to drop off that much. Again everyone seemed super bullish on what is a 1000 mb low fading as it passes through the region. That doesn't instill confidence at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 27 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Combine that with mixing issues as the column saturates & questions over the amount of ice aloft always led me to doubt snowfall totals that were shown on the models. 1 minute ago, nwohweather said: I started hammering this underperforming hard yesterday as we moved into the short range. I also have acknowledged that I didn't expect the precipitation to drop off that much. Again everyone seemed super bullish on what is a 1000 mb low fading as it passes through the region. That doesn't instill confidence at all. next time know what you're talking about first, before trying to claim an lol victory. see above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 All hail almighty lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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