Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I had 6-8" in my head for my area before the 00z Euro came out, and I think I'll go with that for now despite the Euro suggesting potential for a bit more. Not greatly confident in that call yet, but I think there will be a nice period of snow prior to the dryslot potentially sneaking in for a time and I am not particularly concerned about mixing cutting down on totals at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 You can tell we're storm starved when I'm seriously staying up just to look at the 06Z runs 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6z NAM with a significant jump north relative to 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Don’t be surprised if we see an uptick in QPF (esp. for N IL)as we move closer and closer to the event. . . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 LOT just put up a WSW for every county along/north of I-80 with the exception of Porter in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 33 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: 6z NAM with a significant jump north relative to 0z 06z RDPS is north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 06z RDPS is north as well.Add the GFS and para GFS to the 6z bump north group.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Can't say the last 24 hours of model guidance has me hyped but still looks like I'm in line for a solid low end warning criteria event Hopefully some surprises with the back end lake dust but it's not screaming big #s to me right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 LOT's calling for 6-9" in their watch product which seems spot on. Surprised now to find mixing language in it as well which is concerning. Also, they have always been touting a low ratio event so we shall see. Need model tracks to hold sway and hope the weakening/shear can back off carrying some of the bigger numbers out west further this way along with lake enhancement. Probably a lot to ask for....but I like nice things. another fine afd by lot fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 6z Euro bumped back north as well.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 looks like totals ticked up a smidge as well. Hopefully, euro can ride this horse home. If so, great win for 4-5 days out on accuracy and consistency. Edit: knocks on wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6z run of the 3K NAM blasts the dry slot much further north, pushing the best fgen into southern WI after the initial band and before the mediocre defo moves overhead. It’s long range for NAM, but I feel like 8 out of 10 events surprise with how far north banding ends up. Something to keep in mind as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 dryslots always go further north than progged. The good news using the naked eye on that capture shows the defo band already collapsing back east and south. Would love to get a quick 3-5' in the front end thump before dry slot comes through. I always think a good heavy hit at onset is key for a good event. Sounds redundant, but the big winners get hit fast and hard. LOT discussed the dreaded slot:" AM GROWING CONVINCED THAT THE MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT WILL END UP BEING A KEY PLAYER IN PRECIPITATION TYPES/INTENSITIES AS WELL, POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS I-88 FOR A PERIOD MONDAY EVENING GIVEN THE LATEST 700 MB LOW PATH." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 man the wagons, mchenrysnow's revenge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, Baum said: I always think a good heavy hit at onset is key for a good event. Sounds redundant, but the big winners get hit fast and hard. I feel like the big winner is often where that fgen band slows and stalls, then pivots back over with the defo. In the case of the latest 3K NAM, that looks to occur just north of the border. It moves through the metro too quickly as depicted to dump much. (Long range NAM caveat applies obv). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: man the wagons, mchenrysnow's revenge dubuque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Looks like no 12Z upper air soundings from the core of the energy now mostly ashore in CA/MX - 4 of them are missing. Will be a test of how satellite data fare in place of actual in-situ obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Looks like no 12Z upper air soundings from the core of the energy now mostly ashore in CA/MX - 4 of them are missing. Will be a test of how satellite data fare in place of actual in-situ obs. 3rd main cycle that have been missing them, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 plumes got that 6-8 look at ORD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitchener poster Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: 6z Euro bumped back north as well. . When I lived in Will county for a couple of years I always thought the snow gradients were always super tight there. Looks like it may happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 FWIW, the 12z HRRR is solid for the city. Has the look of some LE action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kitchener poster said: When I lived in Will county for a couple of years I always thought the snow gradients were always super tight there. Looks like it may happen again. Very much has been the case over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Chicago WX said: FWIW, the 12z HRRR is solid for the city. Has the look of some LE action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Honestly, HRRR isn't terrible considering the confluence east of Lake Mi. Perhaps we'll get this to last a little longer through the mid part of the sub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 One more gif map of 12z HRRR/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 This winter 20-21 - I'm surprised nobody is talking about a last minute left hook and this becomes a Madison-Sheboygan shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I will say anecdotally this new HRRR has been bullish on lake effect this season and it has mostly not worked out. That said, the temp profile is becoming much more favorable along with other guidance by early Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z NAM coming in with a big bump south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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