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Jan 24-26th Potential Something Part 2


Chicago Storm
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31 minutes ago, Baum said:

not at all shocked to see some more realistic totals on models as we close in. Track changes seem negligible. 6"-10" through metro seems on track.

Perhaps, but you didn't go from this:

177769590_2021012012zEuroh138SnowKCH.thumb.png.7e0a778adb9d5634e85d8a0496fd0ad1.png

 

To what that Ukie just showed over my way. What happened to the days when models actually got beefier close in?

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20 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Perhaps, but you didn't go from this:

177769590_2021012012zEuroh138SnowKCH.thumb.png.7e0a778adb9d5634e85d8a0496fd0ad1.png

 

To what that Ukie just showed over my way. What happened to the days when models actually got beefier close in?

I have a feeling that tomorrow will NOT be our day haha. Watch these models come apart and drop accums to 1” or less East of Chicago. Not saying it’ll happen, but we’re definitely on course and would be up to par as of lately. 

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

Despite some fluctuations for various parts of the sub with the new 00z guidance things have largely stayed the same for this area.  Usually a pretty good sign.  Looks like the heaviest rates Mon eve. 

Things are more or less the same here tonight as well. What changes though are that he odds of a truly historic snowfall(12+) for CR/IC itself are rapidly dwindling. Shame really, this storm had a shot to challenge CR's 40 year 12"er drought, but trends tonight are definitely in the wrong direction for doing so. My thoughts that someone sees 15" from this havent changed, just looking incredibly unlikely to be CR and decently unlikely to be IC.

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I like that shift for purely mby purposes, but not gonna completely buy off on it yet.  Anything can happen with tomorrow's runs, from status quo, to shift south, to shift back north.
It's funny that the Euro, much more consistent than the other operational guidance so far, would have its first more noticeable shift closer in to the event when we're probably headed for watch issuances in the morning. Just to spice things up a bit lol.

But in all seriousness, to your point, if you think of the operational models themselves as part of a super ensemble and also just one member among their own ensembles, the runs tonight are all well within the ensemble envelope. We have a pretty good general idea of the areas most likely to get hit hardest with some error bar padding either side. Even with the prior operational runs focusing more north of your area, you were still in the threat zone for the heavier snow, just like the northern tier is still in it despite what the 00z Euro just showed.

Another thing to consider with tonight's runs is that unfortunately there were several missing RAOBs out in the southwest this evening, so maybe that's hindering getting a better consensus.

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Things are more or less the same here tonight as well. What changes though are that he odds of a truly historic snowfall(12+) for CR/IC itself are rapidly dwindling. Shame really, this storm had a shot to challenge CR's 40 year 12"er drought, but trends tonight are definitely in the wrong direction for doing so. My thoughts that someone sees 15" from this havent changed, just looking incredibly unlikely to be CR and decently unlikely to be IC.

That stat is crazy.  Every which way in this sub has had storms 12+ since then.

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

It's funny that the Euro, much more consistent than the other operational guidance so far, would have its first more noticeable shift closer in to the event when we're probably headed for watch issuances in the morning. Just to spice things up a bit lol.

But in all seriousness, to your point, if you think of the operational models themselves as part of a super ensemble and also just one member among their own ensembles, the runs tonight are all well within the ensemble envelope. We have a pretty good general idea of the areas most likely to get hit hardest with some error bar padding either side. Even with the prior operational runs focusing more north of your area, you were still in the threat zone for the heavier snow, just like the northern tier is still in it despite what the 00z Euro just showed.

Another thing to consider with tonight's runs is that unfortunately there were several missing RAOBs out in the southwest this evening, so maybe that's hindering getting a better consensus.

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Again?  Why is that happening?

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

That stat is crazy.  Every which way in this sub has had storms 12+ since then.

It came from a local news station, we've seen unofficial totals since that have flirted with 12" however. This storm would likely be a slam dunk in this regard if the confluence out ahead of the wave werent so damn strong. 

Image

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

I was born in 1974 and I've never measured 12", so the stat is legit.

Yea I was thinking that this storm was our best shot out of the past several years to make a run at that stat but to even be in contention, the wave needs to not shear out so quickly. Too bad that the trend tonight has been the opposite of that. 

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5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I was born in 1974 and I've never measured 12" of snow, so the stat is legit.

That's extraordinarily bad luck considering how CR sits in the middle of where so many big dogs have tracked through the decades.  Maybe the 140mph derecho was an effort by ma nature to balance the scales.

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1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

That's extraordinarily bad luck considering how CR sits in the middle of where so many big dogs have tracked through the decades.  Maybe the 140mph derecho was an effort by ma nature to balance the scales.

the derecho transcends any and all big dogs. That event sits in a league of its own and may never be surpassed.

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22 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

It's funny that the Euro, much more consistent than the other operational guidance so far, would have its first more noticeable shift closer in to the event when we're probably headed for watch issuances in the morning. Just to spice things up a bit lol.

But in all seriousness, to your point, if you think of the operational models themselves as part of a super ensemble and also just one member among their own ensembles, the runs tonight are all well within the ensemble envelope. We have a pretty good general idea of the areas most likely to get hit hardest with some error bar padding either side. Even with the prior operational runs focusing more north of your area, you were still in the threat zone for the heavier snow, just like the northern tier is still in it despite what the 00z Euro just showed.

Another thing to consider with tonight's runs is that unfortunately there were several missing RAOBs out in the southwest this evening, so maybe that's hindering getting a better consensus.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

You’re really good!  A young Walt Drag!  I’ve learned a lot reading your posts ITT.

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