Jan 24-26th Potential Something Part 2

[mimillman]

The GEM continues to hang precip around the lake well into Tuesday. Clear trend for a longer duration event with a drier defo but equivalent QPF overall

Edit: eh, maybe 0.1-0.2” less

[ILSNOW]

5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

This is the largest event of the season for the CWA and the largest event for the metro in 3 years. They will issue a watch 

They should go Winter Storm Watch chicago north and west for 6-10 inches in the morning.

Hopefully RC will trim in.

 

[RyanDe680]

Just now, ILSNOW said:

They should go Winter Storm Watch chicago north and west for 6-10 inches.

With a WWA further south 

[Cary67]

Just now, mimillman said:

This is the largest event of the season for the CWA and the largest event for the metro in 3 years. They will issue a watch 

I'm sure they will but imo still time to take in more model data that's been sampled and fine tune amts for initial advisories. While still giving public 24-36 hrs notice.

[Baum]

I'm 4 cocktails in when does the euro hot? * hit

[mimillman]

Just now, Cary67 said:

I'm sure they will but imo still time to take in more model data that's been sampled and fine tune amts for initial advisories. While still giving public 24-36 hrs notice.

They can always issue a watch and replace it with an advisory, that’s the purpose of a watch vs a warning 

[RyanDe680]

Just now, Cary67 said:

I'm sure they will but imo still time to take in more model data that's been sampled and fine tune amts for initial advisories. While still giving public 24-36 hrs notice.

That coupled with the fact that the weather balloons were a bust earlier today 

[McHenrySnow]

Just now, Baum said:

I'm 4 cocktails in when does the euro hot? * hit

Midnight or so.

[RyanDe680]

(anxiously awaits part three)

[Baum]

1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said:

Midnight or so.

may not make it. But overall still on track. Need to squash that eastward drying trend on tomorrows runs.

[mimillman]

GEM has this Thursday lake band again associated with the system behind our main one. 

[RyanDe680]

Plumes for ORD solidly ticked up to 8.5 mean 

[Cary67]

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

They can always issue a watch and replace it with an advisory, that’s the purpose of a watch vs a warning 

Yes. I do wonder though if weather offices strive to issue watches that eventually become warnings more often then being downgraded to WWAs. If that's the case waiting a bit later would help raise those percentages.

[mimillman]

Just now, Cary67 said:

Yes. I do wonder though if weather offices strive to issue watches that eventually become warnings more often then being downgraded to WWAs. If that's the case waiting a bit later would help raise those percentages.

I agree that’s the goal, but ultimately I think a watch is an appropriate product at this juncture.

[ILSNOW]

[Chicago Storm]

0z UKMET bumped north and was a bit drier, as seen above.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

They should go Winter Storm Watch chicago north and west for 6-10 inches in the morning.

Hopefully RC will trim in.

 

The interesting area from a decision standpoint on watch/no watch is the I-80 corridor.  Some conflicting guidance and confidence wouldn't be quite as high as just north of there, but I think I would pull the trigger on a watch for I-80 for a couple reasons.  One, there's been an obvious lack of snow so far this season and second, the wind aspect will add to impacts.  Can always go with a watch and convert to an advisory if it looks like amounts will come in under criteria.

[Baum]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z UKMET bumped north and was a bit drier, as seen above.

not at all shocked to see some more realistic totals on models as we close in. Track changes seem negligible. 6"-10" through metro seems on track.

[mimillman]

These are all fine solutions. I consider myself very lucky to be in the game for a 6”+ event and the south central Iowa weenies can enjoy their moment of glory.

I’m hoping tomorrow we can get a bit more QPF out of this further East. Still have a whole day to sort that out until people start posting the HRRR and it’s Madison blockbuster early scenarios

[McHenrySnow]

This shows the actual storm total best as the "total" accums add an inch to inch and a half across much of northern LOT from tonights snow. 

[McHenrySnow]

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

These are all fine solutions. I consider myself very lucky to be in the game for a 6”+ event and the south central Iowa weenies can enjoy their moment of glory.

I’m hoping tomorrow we can get a bit more QPF out of this further East. Still have a whole day to sort that out until people start posting the HRRR and it’s Madison blockbuster early scenarios

You have the lake to at least pad totals by a couple inches, which is always nice. I can't imagine living in the loop and loving snow the past few years. It was bad enough in Bridgeport, but we often had better accums than the loop. 

[McHenrySnow]

1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said:

This shows the actual storm total best as the "total" accums add an inch to inch and a half across much of northern LOT from tonights snow. 

You can also see the lake's influence very well. Maybe too well for parts of McHenry, Kane, and DuPage. 

[mimillman]

Just now, McHenrySnow said:

You have the lake to at least pad totals by a couple inches, which is always nice. I can't imagine living in the loop and loving snow the past few years. It was bad enough in Bridgeport, but we often had better accums than the loop. 

It sucks in November and December. We get rainers/poor accumulation while the suburbs cash in. ORD routinely will print 2-3” higher than the Loop in December and in November, that could be closer to 6”. We start to win out in late Jan - March, but overall I’d prefer to live northwest.

[ILSNOW]

SREF Plumes mean at ORD is up to 8.5 with 5 or 6 clunkers and with 8  anywhere from  8.5 to 14.

[McHenrySnow]

Just now, mimillman said:

It sucks in November and December. We get rainers/poor accumulation while the suburbs cash in. ORD routinely will print 2-3” higher than the Loop in December and in November, that could be closer to 6”. We start to win out in late Jan - March, but overall I’d prefer to live northwest.

Was in Bridgeport during the November 2018 "blizzard" - that and the snowstorm in November 2015 were heartbreakers for people who actually lived in the city (let's face it, O'Hare isn't the city). 

[nwohweather]

Whadda ya mean? Would be my biggest event of the season perhaps doubling my biggest storm. (and would fit perfectly with this POS winter)

1-2” for Toledo seems real low

[mimillman]

2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Was in Bridgeport during the November 2018 "blizzard" - that and the snowstorm in November 2015 were heartbreakers for people who actually lived in the city (let's face it, O'Hare isn't the city). 

I remember it (not so) fondly. It’s precisely those types of events that anger me to no end. 

[NEILwxbo]

First thoughts on accumulations for LOT area. Could change. 

[McHenrySnow]

1 minute ago, NEILwxbo said:

First thoughts on accumulations for LOT area. Could change. 

Overall looks good to me. I'm beginning to doubt doubt digits, though localized 10" especially further west is certainly possible. 

[mimillman]

7 minutes ago, NEILwxbo said:

First thoughts on accumulations for LOT area. Could change. 

Looks good. I think there can be some 10” lollis along the lake where banding is persistent