Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I just want my 6"-10" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 SLP is 2mb stronger and approximately 150 miles northwest. This is going to be a crusher for south central Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Baum said: I just want my 6"-10" Ole man winter says GRANTED! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 SREF plumes for ORD continue to dump the lowballs. Mean up to near 8” with a big bunch between 8-12” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It gets shunted East at hour 45, phew. It’s stronger though. QPF is going to be juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: More ridging ahead of the ejecting wave, and a bit less confluence in the Lakes this run. In addition, more confluence across the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 At 45hr, low is in the same place as it was at 18z. Slightly strong low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: SREF plumes for ORD continue to dump the lowballs. Mean up to near 8” with a big bunch between 8-12” Distribution of members is bimodal and the mean lies at the low end of the 2nd mode and well below the median. I studied statistics and these are all very, very good things 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 This run looks like a crush job for the 88 corridor. Cyclone banking big time too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Distribution of members is bimodal and the mean lies at the low end of the 2nd mode and well below the median. I studied statistics and these are all very, very good things 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Basically, there's members that say squat is gonna happen. Those members are wrong, and they're making the whole thing look bad. Edit: I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 54 hours, the low is in east Kentucky and it is still snowing back to Nebraska 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Basically, there's members that say squat is gonna happen. Those members are wrong, and they're making the whole thing look bad. Edit: I think Yes. The distribution is highly left skewed and is throwing off the mean. The mean here is not a fair representation, it’s underdone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Ultimately no meaningful changes through 54 hours. If you’re in the defo band once the low starts moving East, it’s gonna rock. That would be DVN and LOT CWAs. Edit: There does look like less QPF in the defo band, but more backside snows as evidenced by the changes in central Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I just want my 8"-12" 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Ultimately no meaningful changes through 54 hours. If you’re in the defo band once the low starts moving East, it’s gonna rock. That would be DVN and LOT CWAs Snow amounts on the run so far in N/NE IL are a bit lesser than they were in 18z at 60hrs. But, as previously stated, this storm could be a case of old school meteorology being more useful than computer amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: 54 hours, the low is in east Kentucky and it is still snowing back to Nebraska Help me understand how the Low can be so far east and still support this lingering band? Honest question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Serious long duration snowfall. Will be a baller storm day of snow for those in the band. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 End of the NAM run is very Euro-esque with snow continuing through most of the day Tuesday into Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Pingers and rain....Send it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 southern LOT actually does better here than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 And a 12 hour break before a 1-2” refresher Wednesday evening. Love it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 As RC has said, what is up with the weatherbell Kuchera maps? The pivotal Kuchera maps seem more realistic than those. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: southern LOT actually does better here than 18z It's a good run for that area verbatim, but I don't like the mid level low track. Would introduce dry slot concerns farther north than shown, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: As RC has said, what is up with the weatherbell Kuchera maps? The pivotal Kuchera maps seem more realistic than those. Idk but it’s what I got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Yeah I think I'm done wasting time on this storm. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDanny Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Crusher in Iowa. Typical splotchy issues with the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It's a good run for that area verbatim, but I don't like the mid level low track. Would introduce dry slot concerns farther north than shown, imo. Fair, but by that metric you’d have the same worry for south central Iowa, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Stebo said: Yeah I think I'm done wasting time on this storm. 3km manages to be even worse than the 12km Glad we agree now that this storm isn’t worth bothering over here in SEMI. Congrats Iowa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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