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Jan 24-26th Potential Something Part 2


Chicago Storm
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One aspect I'll be taking a closer look at tonight is the low and mid level frontogenesis progged. The models do a decent job of forecasting the existence of fgen, but much less good in placement and also maintenance, especially this far out.

Even with a shearing h5 vort, you wouldn't expect the mesoscale banding to disintegrate because that's more driven by low-mid level thermal gradient, which will remain tight. That's a way that the big dog type totals could get farther east into the LOT CWA, with longer than forecast maintenance of intense fgen banding. It seems as if some of the guidance is starting to hint at that possibility.

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Question is how far north will the dry slot push to shut off precip/drizzle on us before the defo establishes itself and swings through. I imagine models will be narrowing in on that over the next 48 hours. Could easily push dynamics north for awhile. Perhaps even into WI.

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I'm wary of the 700 mb low lagging the initial push.  Kind of like a SWFE which this ends up being around here?  Fortunately it's just south of the area around Chicago but south of that H7 low may struggle for awhile.  OTOH, the Euro is bullish kind of for Tuesday.

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26 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

One aspect I'll be taking a closer look at tonight is the low and mid level frontogenesis progged. The models do a decent job of forecasting the existence of fgen, but much less good in placement and also maintenance, especially this far out.

Even with a shearing h5 vort, you wouldn't expect the mesoscale banding to disintegrate because that's more driven by low-mid level thermal gradient, which will remain tight. That's a way that the big dog type totals could get farther east into the LOT CWA, with longer than forecast maintenance of intense fgen banding. It seems as if some of the guidance is starting to hint at that possibility.

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Appreciate the knowledge dropping.

Given what’s been said & how the models are shaping this one up, I’ll go ahead and predict that ORD & Chicago downtown (ALEK territory) hits double digits. My house in Poplar Grove may also hit double digits, which my wife will just be “thrilled” by. :lol:

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

It’s like our ocean enhancement.  Hoping for days and days of snow but would like to be home by Friday..lol.

Primary differences though are that we have no terrain to enhance convergence, and y’all also have salty ocean air which can produce efficient snowflakes at warmer temps. 
 

I kinda feel like the warmer temps and stronger winds near the lake here Monday will negate any modest lake enhancement. Tuesday is a different story if the colder/slower solutions verify. 

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