ILSNOW Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 RGEM quite aggressive with the Wednesday lake effect. It’s going to be snowing here for like 36 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Event changing flavor 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: RGEM quite aggressive with the Wednesday lake effect. It’s going to be snowing here for like 36 hours Are there any specific maps or charts that focus in the lake effect side of things separately from the main event (know they are really all combined). Asking as I’m in far NE Kane county in IL and there are times the lake enhancement even helps us out here around 30 miles from the lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, A-L-E-K said: Event changing flavor At least with this one I don’t have to wait for your “here comes the rain again” post... ;-) Any more detail or background to how this is changing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Thread has gone quiet. Maybe we're all relishing in the Packers' loss. Hate relying on lake effect/lake enhancement to make up for a less impressive synoptic system than progged. Can be so fickle. 2 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, tuanis said: Thread has gone quiet. Maybe we're all relishing in the Packers' loss. Hate relying on lake effect/lake enhancement to make up for a less impressive synoptic system than progged. Can be so fickle. T-20 hours and 30 minutes between posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 18z GEM ticked a bit drier again.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It's looking a bit better for Toronto - dare I hope for 2"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z GEM ticked a bit drier again. . The bleeding just won’t stop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z GEM ticked a bit drier again. . #repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: The bleeding just won’t stop. ride the GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Multi-seasonal trends will not be denied. Delayed due to lack of data, but not denied 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Multi-seasonal trends will not be denied. Delayed due to lack of data, but not denied diasagree. snow events in April always pan out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 18z Euro a tick south...and a drier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Someone should keep track of systems modeled to produce big snows meaning double digits inside 78hrs. Bet the rate of verification is pretty low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro a tick south...and a drier. . Snow map please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Cary67 said: Someone should keep track of systems modeled to produce big snows meaning double digits inside 78hrs. Bet the rate of verification is pretty low. without a doubt. But I never really considered this a double digit event. And actually LOT never has either in any discussion regarding amounts. Hoping to hold onto a 4-8 event at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 Snow map please?. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Euro is less gung ho on lake effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Euro is less gung ho on lake effect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Going to have to watch this dry slot at 500mb closely tomorrow evening. A lot of today's guidance is showing a drying out of the dendritic growth zone and is no longer co-locating the best lift within that layer. Both of those things are negatives when it comes to snow-liquid ratios. The DGZ is just below 500mb but these RH plots are a good proxy for where there is better saturation, based on all the forecast soundings I've seen. GFS is on its own for the Chicago area. If the other guidance is right, precip will be showery by the time it reaches Chicago and could produce grainier snow w/ ratios as low as 5-6:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Going to have to watch this dry slot at 500mb closely tomorrow evening. A lot of today's guidance is showing a drying out of the dendritic growth zone and is no longer co-locating the best lift within that layer. Both of those things are negatives when it comes to snow-liquid ratios. The DGZ is just below 500mb but these RH plots are a good proxy for where there is better saturation, based on all the forecast soundings I've seen. GFS is on its own for the Chicago area. If the other guidance is right, precip will be showery by the time it reaches Chicago and could produce grainier snow w/ ratios as low as 5-6:1. Relying on good ratios is similar to relying on lake effect in that more often than not you're going to be disappointed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just getting caught up on the afternoon developments. Was hoping to get the winter storm warning here instead of an advisory, but it's an understandable move by LOT. And I am so far north in Lake county Indiana that I think I am still in the game for 6", as long as 1) the dry slot doesn't race in too quickly and 2) mixing doesn't occur prior to the dry slot approach. Close call and I'd certainly expect just north of here to reach 6" if I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Our Texas low begins to develop tonight. Moisture trajectories look good out of the Gulf of Mexico. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Looking at the trends and 18z guidance, gonna have to lower my call for IC from 8" to 6". Might need to readjust again tomorrow morning in either direction if necessary. I question how good of banding/rates/dynamics we're really gonna see out of a low that is rapidly weakening and am making an assumption (perhaps ill informed) that these features will underperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: I was born in 1974 and I've never measured 12" of snow, so the stat is legit. What about February 5-6, 2008? I swear we got a foot from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Natester said: What about February 5-6, 2008? I swear we got a foot from that. I recorded 11.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I recorded 11.5". Oh, I see. Just a half inch from a foot. That was the last huge snowstorm that Cedar Rapids had that exceeded 10 inches. That was back during the golden days of Easternuswx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Looking forward to the TSSN videos from SE NE and S IA on youtube following this. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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