Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z NAM coming in with a big bump south. Confluence in S Canada/N Lakes/Northeast is further south and the southern wave ejects out a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 51 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 3rd main cycle that have been missing them, unfortunately. What a joke. No wonder the models have been bouncing all over the damn place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Seems like we play these games of 0z run is south...6z north...12z back south...18z big bump north. Rinse, wash, and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z NAM is much drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 Parts of IA went from 13" 6z run to 0" 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3km following suit. Fringes always precarious, but funny to toggle between the 6z and 12z runs...and watch places on the northern edge going from warning snows to a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 been there done that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Parts of IA went from 13" 6z run to 0" 12z run. How chaotic are we to interpret these runs since it’s yet another cycle without balloon data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, Sciascia said: How chaotic are we to interpret these runs since it’s yet another cycle without balloon data? There were 3 soundings missing in the Southwestern US, which is significant given that is where the main southern trough/wave is located. At the same time, soundings occurred as normal across most of the rest of the US and Canada, which allowed for the open field ahead of the southern wave and the northern stream to be fully sampled still. So probably have some caution, but don't overthink it too much. Edit: Also, some Mexico soundings were missing at times yesterday, but were available this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Isnt it the Confluence in S Canada/N Lakes/Northeast bouncing around north and south each model run thats causing the issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z NAM . Wow what a cutoff in IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 11 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Isnt it the Confluence in S Canada/N Lakes/Northeast bouncing around north and south each model run thats causing the issues? That has been a large part of it, especially with how much the confluence over the Lakes/Northeast has been changing with time. There have also been some changes with the main southern wave with how far north/south it ejects out, as well as changes with ridging ahead of it. Another thing to watch, is the next trough coming into the West Coast, as that is actually somewhat acting as a kicker for our ejecting southern wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: There were 3 soundings missing in the Southwestern US, which is significant given that is where the main southern trough/wave is located. At the same time, soundings occurred as normal across most of the rest of the US and Canada, which allowed for the open field ahead of the southern wave and the northern stream to be fully sampled still. So probably have some caution, but don't overthink it too much. Edit: Also, some Mexico soundings were missing at times yesterday, but were available this morning. Agreed. Not sure it's as big an issue these days as it would've been decades ago, but the soundings still provide some value. It has been noted that there are far fewer aircraft soundings since COVID-19 started, which may account for some degradation in model performance over the past year. This image below shows the other observations that are ingested into the ECMWF, for instance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 48 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z NAM coming in with a big bump south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Respect the block 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 pullin for ya 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z RGEM bumping south and drier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 We'll have to pick our poison it sounds like. More shear and less totals for a hit through the metro or north and get mixing and dry slot issues. Standard fare for most winter weather events in these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Respect the block 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Welp, all I can say is, thank y’a big ol lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 At this point would take 4-6" as models still have another 36 hrs to look even worse 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 40 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Respect the block 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 12z GFS keeping with the trend of going drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Gfs with a jump north. Lol. This model flip flopping is real comical. Looks like 12z runs also didn't have adequate sampling. On to 0z runs. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: plumes got that 6-8 look at ORD Yea will take it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 52 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 GFS para (for whatever thats worth) appears to not minor out the snow as quickly. vs GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 LOT's 6-9 call looking about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Baum said: LOT's 6-9 call looking about right. It’s a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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