RogueWaves Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 31 minutes ago, Baum said: not at all shocked to see some more realistic totals on models as we close in. Track changes seem negligible. 6"-10" through metro seems on track. Perhaps, but you didn't go from this: To what that Ukie just showed over my way. What happened to the days when models actually got beefier close in? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, RogueWaves said: Perhaps, but you didn't go from this: To what that Ukie just showed over my way. What happened to the days when models actually got beefier close in? I mean, apart from the Euro, they did... as long as you live in Iowa. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 20 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Perhaps, but you didn't go from this: To what that Ukie just showed over my way. What happened to the days when models actually got beefier close in? I have a feeling that tomorrow will NOT be our day haha. Watch these models come apart and drop accums to 1” or less East of Chicago. Not saying it’ll happen, but we’re definitely on course and would be up to par as of lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 0z Euro bumping a bit south.Not significantly drier or wetter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 0z Euro bumping a bit south.Not significantly drier or wetter..Heaviest axis in LOT CWA is actually south of most other guidance now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z Euro bumping a bit south. Not significantly drier or wetter. . It’s rather significantly drier in eastern Iowa. IC, for example fell from 14” to 9.5”. CR flirts with the northern edge. Crummy run for this area relative to everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z Euro bumping a bit south. Not significantly drier or wetter. . Based solely on WxBell maps, seems a bit drier for NE IL. Central & northern Cook down 3+ inches from the same spot on 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 It’s rather significantly drier in eastern Iowa. IC, for example fell from 14” to 9.5”. CR flirts with the northern edge. Crummy run for this area relative to everything else.That’s not because it’s drier. It’s due to the shift south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 Based solely on WxBell maps, seems a bit drier for NE IL. Central & northern Cook down 3+ inches from the same spot on 18zIndeed. In the end it ended up ~0.10” drier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Oof. Shouldn’t have stayed up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 0z Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Jeez, the Euro only drops 4.5" on Cedar Rapids now from the big system (using 10:1). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I like that shift for purely mby purposes, but not gonna completely buy off on it yet. Anything can happen with tomorrow's runs, from status quo, to shift south, to shift back north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Despite some fluctuations for various parts of the sub with the new 00z guidance things have largely stayed the same for this area. Usually a pretty good sign. Looks like the heaviest rates Mon eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: Despite some fluctuations for various parts of the sub with the new 00z guidance things have largely stayed the same for this area. Usually a pretty good sign. Looks like the heaviest rates Mon eve. Things are more or less the same here tonight as well. What changes though are that he odds of a truly historic snowfall(12+) for CR/IC itself are rapidly dwindling. Shame really, this storm had a shot to challenge CR's 40 year 12"er drought, but trends tonight are definitely in the wrong direction for doing so. My thoughts that someone sees 15" from this havent changed, just looking incredibly unlikely to be CR and decently unlikely to be IC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I like that shift for purely mby purposes, but not gonna completely buy off on it yet. Anything can happen with tomorrow's runs, from status quo, to shift south, to shift back north.It's funny that the Euro, much more consistent than the other operational guidance so far, would have its first more noticeable shift closer in to the event when we're probably headed for watch issuances in the morning. Just to spice things up a bit lol. But in all seriousness, to your point, if you think of the operational models themselves as part of a super ensemble and also just one member among their own ensembles, the runs tonight are all well within the ensemble envelope. We have a pretty good general idea of the areas most likely to get hit hardest with some error bar padding either side. Even with the prior operational runs focusing more north of your area, you were still in the threat zone for the heavier snow, just like the northern tier is still in it despite what the 00z Euro just showed.Another thing to consider with tonight's runs is that unfortunately there were several missing RAOBs out in the southwest this evening, so maybe that's hindering getting a better consensus. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: Things are more or less the same here tonight as well. What changes though are that he odds of a truly historic snowfall(12+) for CR/IC itself are rapidly dwindling. Shame really, this storm had a shot to challenge CR's 40 year 12"er drought, but trends tonight are definitely in the wrong direction for doing so. My thoughts that someone sees 15" from this havent changed, just looking incredibly unlikely to be CR and decently unlikely to be IC. That stat is crazy. Every which way in this sub has had storms 12+ since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: It's funny that the Euro, much more consistent than the other operational guidance so far, would have its first more noticeable shift closer in to the event when we're probably headed for watch issuances in the morning. Just to spice things up a bit lol. But in all seriousness, to your point, if you think of the operational models themselves as part of a super ensemble and also just one member among their own ensembles, the runs tonight are all well within the ensemble envelope. We have a pretty good general idea of the areas most likely to get hit hardest with some error bar padding either side. Even with the prior operational runs focusing more north of your area, you were still in the threat zone for the heavier snow, just like the northern tier is still in it despite what the 00z Euro just showed. Another thing to consider with tonight's runs is that unfortunately there were several missing RAOBs out in the southwest this evening, so maybe that's hindering getting a better consensus. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Again? Why is that happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That stat is crazy. Every which way in this sub has had storms 12+ since then. It came from a local news station, we've seen unofficial totals since that have flirted with 12" however. This storm would likely be a slam dunk in this regard if the confluence out ahead of the wave werent so damn strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Again? Why is that happening?I think maybe some equipment issues? Such bad timing for these RAOB outages. Hopefully not a problem for the all important 12z runs tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, hlcater said: It came from a local news station, we've seen unofficial totals since that have flirted with 12" however. I was born in 1974 and I've never measured 12" of snow, so the stat is legit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: I was born in 1974 and I've never measured 12", so the stat is legit. Yea I was thinking that this storm was our best shot out of the past several years to make a run at that stat but to even be in contention, the wave needs to not shear out so quickly. Too bad that the trend tonight has been the opposite of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Again? Why is that happening? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 "...just kidding." (Plugs it back in and laughs manically) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I was born in 1974 and I've never measured 12" of snow, so the stat is legit. That's extraordinarily bad luck considering how CR sits in the middle of where so many big dogs have tracked through the decades. Maybe the 140mph derecho was an effort by ma nature to balance the scales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, cyclone77 said: Clearly we need Otto Pilot to help with the RAOBS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 28 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z Euro . At least DAY would get some of that snow on this Euro run. 00z HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: That's extraordinarily bad luck considering how CR sits in the middle of where so many big dogs have tracked through the decades. Maybe the 140mph derecho was an effort by ma nature to balance the scales. the derecho transcends any and all big dogs. That event sits in a league of its own and may never be surpassed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: the derecho transcends any and all big dogs. That event sits in a league of its own and may never be surpassed. What we need now is a big dog with 140 mph winds 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 22 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: It's funny that the Euro, much more consistent than the other operational guidance so far, would have its first more noticeable shift closer in to the event when we're probably headed for watch issuances in the morning. Just to spice things up a bit lol. But in all seriousness, to your point, if you think of the operational models themselves as part of a super ensemble and also just one member among their own ensembles, the runs tonight are all well within the ensemble envelope. We have a pretty good general idea of the areas most likely to get hit hardest with some error bar padding either side. Even with the prior operational runs focusing more north of your area, you were still in the threat zone for the heavier snow, just like the northern tier is still in it despite what the 00z Euro just showed. Another thing to consider with tonight's runs is that unfortunately there were several missing RAOBs out in the southwest this evening, so maybe that's hindering getting a better consensus. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk You’re really good! A young Walt Drag! I’ve learned a lot reading your posts ITT. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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