madwx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Could see us flirting with 6” here(2” from tonight’s wave and 4” from the main low) if the N drift continues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: Oof Gotta think it could be pretty paralyzing out in Iowa if there's anything even close to that. A lot of rural areas, blowing and drifting to contend with and don't get amounts like that very often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 One aspect I'll be taking a closer look at tonight is the low and mid level frontogenesis progged. The models do a decent job of forecasting the existence of fgen, but much less good in placement and also maintenance, especially this far out. Even with a shearing h5 vort, you wouldn't expect the mesoscale banding to disintegrate because that's more driven by low-mid level thermal gradient, which will remain tight. That's a way that the big dog type totals could get farther east into the LOT CWA, with longer than forecast maintenance of intense fgen banding. It seems as if some of the guidance is starting to hint at that possibility. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, madwx said: Could see us flirting with 6” here(2” from tonight’s wave and 4” from the main low) if the N drift continues Gotta say, and I hope for my sake I’m right, I think the north drift is done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 If we start trending towards 20" somewhere, I might just have to go find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Just wanted to point out that darker red swath in Iowa is 50 mm qpf, or 2" IIRC that's about the same area that got absolutely demolished by the Nov '18 snowstorm. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Very conservative wsw amounts in the wording/text for southern iowa, 5-10. Should say potential for more than 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, hlcater said: If we start trending towards 20" somewhere, I might just have to go find it. Road trip to Iowa 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This thing gonna be a Border Bomber? NW shift resurrected? Has Geos returned? Iowa looks to get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 where's the guy that said northern counties were screwed? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: IIRC that's about the same area that got absolutely demolished by the Nov '18 snowstorm. Very impressive. That had less snow though, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 RGEM lays down 10.3" in two hours in southwest Iowa, clear frontrunner for best weenie run of the year in that region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: where's the guy that said northern counties were screwed? lol I don’t think we need to go there please. Horse has been long since dead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Lol, this is getting closer to eurythmics time than I'd prefer 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: Lol, this is getting closer to eurythmics time than I'd prefer Anyone make a song about sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Lol, this is getting closer to eurythmics time than I'd prefer I find it hard to believe this can go further north with the block honestly. And I don’t live in Indianapolis so you know I mean it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Question is how far north will the dry slot push to shut off precip/drizzle on us before the defo establishes itself and swings through. I imagine models will be narrowing in on that over the next 48 hours. Could easily push dynamics north for awhile. Perhaps even into WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I'm wary of the 700 mb low lagging the initial push. Kind of like a SWFE which this ends up being around here? Fortunately it's just south of the area around Chicago but south of that H7 low may struggle for awhile. OTOH, the Euro is bullish kind of for Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 18z Euro bumped back south.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 26 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: One aspect I'll be taking a closer look at tonight is the low and mid level frontogenesis progged. The models do a decent job of forecasting the existence of fgen, but much less good in placement and also maintenance, especially this far out. Even with a shearing h5 vort, you wouldn't expect the mesoscale banding to disintegrate because that's more driven by low-mid level thermal gradient, which will remain tight. That's a way that the big dog type totals could get farther east into the LOT CWA, with longer than forecast maintenance of intense fgen banding. It seems as if some of the guidance is starting to hint at that possibility. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Appreciate the knowledge dropping. Given what’s been said & how the models are shaping this one up, I’ll go ahead and predict that ORD & Chicago downtown (ALEK territory) hits double digits. My house in Poplar Grove may also hit double digits, which my wife will just be “thrilled” by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It’s so obvious how snow starved weather fans are up there. I feel for ya lol, but far too many bullish comments on this on a storm likely to underperform. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro bumped back south. . Thank the lord. It also doesn’t collapse QPF east as aggressively 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 If you’re in LOT or DVN you love the 18z euro. Hard to get much better than that. Widespread 8-14”, long duration event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander88 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Thank the lord. It also doesn’t collapse QPF east as aggressively Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, mimillman said: I don’t think we need to go there please. Horse has been long since dead 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: I find it hard to believe this can go further north with the block honestly. but is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro looks like it upped QPF in general from the 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 24, 2021 Author Share Posted January 24, 2021 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 It’s still snowing over LOT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: It’s like our ocean enhancement. Hoping for days and days of snow but would like to be home by Friday..lol. Primary differences though are that we have no terrain to enhance convergence, and y’all also have salty ocean air which can produce efficient snowflakes at warmer temps. I kinda feel like the warmer temps and stronger winds near the lake here Monday will negate any modest lake enhancement. Tuesday is a different story if the colder/slower solutions verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 If the snow is going to be a bit wet, and with some good wind and drifting, I know the ratio in my yard will be crap. 6-9" seems like a good guess here at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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