Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 gonna take this way back, and do it like we did in the olden days. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Good vibes from a part 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Storm thread? Part two? but for real, nice to have a rocking storm thread again. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 0z EPS Mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z EPS Mean . would you mind posting NE too? I'm just curious what this is doing in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Does anyone have any idea why WeatherBell's Kuchera output seemingly always bumps up totals to an unrealistic degree even in near freezing setups? Looking at the Pivotal Weather vs WxBell for 00z Euro it's a very noticeable difference that doesn't make sense since Kuchera is based off of MaxT from sfc to 500 mb.The WxBell Kuchera can rarely work out like with the clipper snow squall a few nights ago but otherwise always seems overdone. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The 00z Euro was the first run to hit the sleet threat harder. I was wondering if any of the models would pick up on this. It makes sense that there would be a sleet zone in between the snow and freezing rain zones, usually don't transition directly from freezing rain to snow in a system of this type. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The 00z Euro was the first run to hit the sleet threat harder. I was wondering if any of the models would pick up on this. It makes sense that there would be a sleet zone in between the snow and freezing rain zones, usually don't transition directly from freezing rain to snow in a system of this type. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I think the Canadian has been picking up on sleet too. That sound you hear is my board brother throwing something at his screen upon looking at the 00z Euro sleet output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I think the Canadian has been picking up on sleet too. That sound you hear is my board brother throwing something at his screen upon looking at the 00z Euro sleet output. I didn't want to be the first one to say it and I thought exactly the same thing when I saw where the max sleet amount is modeled lol. Glad I was able to get some sleet added into the forecast today. If that Euro output comes close to verifying that's a pretty significant amount of sleet. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 And the NAM is finally getting a clue. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: And the NAM is finally getting a clue. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk A healthy band of ice too (obviously the verbatim amounts would be overdone in some areas with precip rates getting too high) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looking good?!?! Call could probably be multiplied x2, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 And good call on those who rode the 88 the WI border area, looking like a general consistency and placement win from the euro now that the gefs are in line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Observation thread? Going with 4-7 in my back yard.. I'll take it and run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This thing really falls apart once it moves into Eastern standard time eh? Wouldn’t be shocked to see some places in Ohio get robbed on snow. Looks good for IA/IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 6z NAM bumped, but still has some work to do...6z GFS remained solid.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Still a decent spread on GEFS, but the mean remained fairly consistent.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 6z RGEM and GEM bumped north.6z Euro. Still snowing from IA on east.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Another day of tracking. Yesterday concerns about a miss south. Now concerned about mixing issues. Tale of the tape. Looks like a solid 6-10" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: And good call on those who rode the 88 the WI border area, looking like a general consistency and placement win from the euro now that the gefs are in line. May have to shelve magic 8 ball if this track and qpf output hold for another 24hrs. Hopefully mesos fall in line with this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Looking good?!?! Call could probably be multiplied x2, lol No more ‘miss south stank’ Alex I guess eh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Where is the energy for the storm, and has it been sampled? The LOT AFD says it's coming ashore this morning. Fully sampled for the 12Zmodel suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: I think the Canadian has been picking up on sleet too. That sound you hear is my board brother throwing something at his screen upon looking at the 00z Euro sleet output. Eh, I've been resigned to this not being a "clean" storm for here, for awhile. Would take a minor miracle for it to be all snow at this point. Overnight LOT AFD seems to indicate any freezing/non-snow frozen precip will be NBD here, with rain taking over. GFS hug, seemingly. Not sure I'd go that far yet, but further adjustments north might be the play...as they typically are with these types of systems. Oh well, onto to the next one for me I guess. Good luck to those up north... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I’ll call 6-12” storm total in Chicago. 6-10” for Hoosier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3-6” for SEMI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, dmc76 said: 3-6” for SEMI. Better than nothing I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, AWMT30 said: Better than nothing I guess Let’s hope we get at least 4-5”. This is turning sour for us very quickly. Thanks to that stalled out storm in New Foundland/Labrador Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Plumes looking good at ORD, group of clunkers shrinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 There’s equal chances this misses semi south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The plumes have ticked better for DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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