ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Hey guys, Below is the 12z GFS - now I am not buying what this is selling as I think it is counting IP as snow in it's 10:1 calculation. That said I am inclined to like the 0z Euro Ensembles with paint a more general 3" to 6" across most spots north of the M/D line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Thanks for starting the storm thread Paul, I agree it was time to do so. Let's hope you bring the good luck, no pressure! 12z gefs individual members.. some big hitters in there but also some misses as well. Still a good deal of uncertainty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 UKMET looking good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Euro kind of shears the storm out over us... Not much precip at all but the cold is there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: Euro kind of shears the storm out over us... Not much precip at all but the cold is there I'll take 3" of fluff all day! I hate mixing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Pretty tough forecast at this range. 3-6" seems like a safe bet for 95 n and w but the euro shearing things out concerns me. Definitely would prefer the warmer gfs that brings more precip even if we get mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Most of Southern part of PA was about to get NAM'd at 18z but the run ended right as it was ramping up. Setup looks like it would be all or majority snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just about to say, low in W VA at 84hrs with snow moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Most of Southern part of PA was about to get NAM'd at 18z but the run ended right as it was ramping up. Setup looks like it would be all or majority snow. Bet the following panel would have dried up as the energy transfers to the coastal which is well off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Just about to say, low in W VA at 84hrs with snow moving in. Headed ESE out of WV. Follow the snow trajectory and verbatim that's a decent hit. But NAM at range and all those caveats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 RGEM 18z is a hit to start and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 18Z GFS looking warm with low near Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 18Z GFS looking warm with low near Erie.Yea low jumps from Pittsburgh at 12z to to Erie at 18z. CMC is similar in low placement but is much colder. Hopefully just a normal off hour run of the goofus. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This is gonna be a 2-4” front end for city with sleet, freezing drizzle/rain and back to snow showers. That would be my bet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1st call phl 3.6 my house - 4.0 Paul’s house - 5.4 Oxford - 6.0 new hope - 4.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z Euro is 3-6" here in Central Bucks. Mostly all snow. 2-4" here in Warminster area with 5" lollis is my first guess (more sleet = lower end, all snow = higher end of range with the 5" spots). 1-3" south of TP with mixing issues. Subject to change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Still 72 hours to flakes patience 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Animal said: 1st call phl 3.6 my house - 4.0 Paul’s house - 5.4 Oxford - 6.0 new hope - 4.3 Good to have you back on this forum back down here....not a bad forecast at this point IMHO....but as we know - this will in all likelihood change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 We just got NAM'd. Am I reading that right 5-10" mainly snow here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We just got NAM'd. Am I reading that right 5-10" mainly snow here? 1 minute ago, Newman said: I sure was....thanks for the quick reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looking at thermals, NAM actually was quite a bit warmer. ICON just came in way N c-2" for most S of I-80. I don't think we are done with the ticks N and warming yet either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Possible we sacrifice #1 as a north trend could reel in a bigger #2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Possible we sacrifice #1 as a north trend could reel in a bigger #2 Hell no! Take what you can get now. Nothing is certain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Where did the cold go, GFS is sobering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, RedSky said: Where did the cold go, GFS is sobering. RGEM is colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, RedSky said: Possible we sacrifice #1 as a north trend could reel in a bigger #2 The weather gods accepted the sacrifice and serve up a mild snow bomb in return 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, RedSky said: The weather gods accepted the sacrifice and serve up a mild snow bomb in return We take. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looking forward to seeing white gold again. Literally takes 1 month or so to see snow in the southern snow belt again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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