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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Theoretically speaking, Euro was pretty bad 72 hours out on this one....though I do not expect a repeat.

Let's hope its correct. That would be special. Now that my ice jam problem has broken up with the help of rock salt inside nylons placed on the roof, I am ready for a slamming end to Feb. Lol I was embarrassed at the dollar store buying 15 cheap nylons. Saved a pair for Kevin though

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Let's hope its correct. That would be special. Now that my ice jam problem has broken up with the help of rock salt inside nylons placed on the roof, I am ready for a slamming end to Feb. Lol I was embarrassed at the dollar store buying 15 cheap nylons. Saved a pair for Kevin though

That’s pretty damn funny lol. 

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With the 22nd Miller b threat it appears the key to that storm is how quickly does the offshore low develop before bombing out and moving to the northeast. Right now, the european guidance redevelops the low farther south and is a more favorable track for significant snow. However other guidance is redeveloping the low too far north, so we rain. The question is what is right? In my opinion the european guidance has the right idea in redeveloping the low farther south, as is it has around 10 inches of snow in eastern mass. However, if it digs a little more and we get the entire evolution a bit farther south, that would give the low more time to bomb out as it approaches our latitude, which would increase both the precip and winds over the area. It is too early for a forecast, but this one has an extremely high ceiling, much higher than even the Friday storm which appears to be quite significant and is trending in the right direction, and is also a Miller b. 

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

With the 22nd Miller b threat it appears the key to that storm is how quickly does the offshore low develop before bombing out and moving to the northeast. Right now, the european guidance redevelops the low farther south and is a more favorable track for significant snow. However other guidance is redeveloping the low too far north, so we rain. The question is what is right? In my opinion the european guidance has the right idea in redeveloping the low farther south, as is it has around 10 inches of snow in eastern mass. However, if it digs a little more and we get the entire evolution a bit farther south, that would give the low more time to bomb out as it approaches our latitude, which would increase both the precip and winds over the area. It is too early for a forecast, but this one has an extremely high ceiling, much higher than even the Friday storm which appears to be quite significant and is trending in the right direction, and is also a Miller b. 

Some guidance brings it north of us James 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Some guidance brings it north of us James 

Yeah guidance is all over the place right now, it going north of us is very possible. Hell some models like the navy don’t even have a low, which is concerning. I personally think this storm more than likely will miss because right now it doesn’t have enough support on the models, but i am still keeping an eye on it because despite being lower probability right now, if it does trend in the right direction we could be talking feet. 

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Yup...I feel pretty confidence myself this ( 22.5th to 25th ) interval will be the next thread designation after the 18th/19th one...

I did mention it briefly near the start of that one, but didn't want to bog it down.  It's been popping up more so than not among the various GEF members for the past week - fwiw. Also, it fits the established local pattern's periodicity also fwiw -

It's not a really teleconnector signaled/ .. correction event, however... So, I would caution that it might suffer more the fairly persistent modeling tendency to see the size of the moon coming over their distant vision as a ginormous impacting doom storm ...only to have it rise higher into clarity as smaller version -

... ah, the models have had to deamplify/ tone-down some, just about everything in that time range when it comes less than D5 .. 4.. etc.   If it had more of the corrective appeal, it might have a different physical presence in the general circulation and that's a different result... 

But here's the thing that also could offset that - so it's not an automatic assumption, either.  I am noticing that there is a tendency - albeit a bit deceptively hidden - for the heights to try and bulge either up the Rockies, or in from the NE Pac...take a pick at model and what variant.  If that proves real... than suddenly, there's your corrective kick in and the thing gets more amplitude/ synergy off the L/W trickery and that would tend to offset the model correction need -

So... enjoy your migraine :)

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Let's hope its correct. That would be special. Now that my ice jam problem has broken up with the help of rock salt inside nylons placed on the roof, I am ready for a slamming end to Feb. Lol I was embarrassed at the dollar store buying 15 cheap nylons. Saved a pair for Kevin though

I had to do that back in Jan '11, but thankfully not since.

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2 hours ago, George001 said:

Yeah guidance is all over the place right now, it going north of us is very possible. Hell some models like the navy don’t even have a low, which is concerning. I personally think this storm more than likely will miss because right now it doesn’t have enough support on the models, but i am still keeping an eye on it because despite being lower probability right now, if it does trend in the right direction we could be talking feet. 

swing away George!

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