February the climo snow month

[George001]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS and GFS op have a good pattern.

Miller Bs?

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS and GFS op have a good pattern.

A little more AK ridging along with some Greenland riding poking back from Scandinavia keeps the heights lower over Central/eastern Canada and at times into NE. SE ridge tries to battle but we’d prob win a lot of those in that setup. EPS a bit more tenuous...esp late in the run. 

This is talking post-day 9ish for peeps reading without seeing the ensembles. 

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

A little more AK ridging along with some Greenland riding poking back from Scandinavia keeps the heights lower over Central/eastern Canada and at times into NE. SE ridge tries to battle but we’d prob win a lot of those in that setup. EPS a bit more tenuous...esp late in the run. 

This is talking post-day 9ish for peeps reading without seeing the ensembles. 

Yeah EPS a little more hostile, but even a compromise would be better. We need a little more ridging near AK on the EPS, but the GEFS certainly are workable. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

Miller Bs?

Or SWFEs.

[mahk_webstah]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Disclaimer- the following is an amateurs analysis of the upcoming pattern in March. I am trying to learn more so I welcome all constructive criticism, as it will help me make better forecasts. My goal is to learn enough to make winter forecasts like some of the more experienced members of the board.

This winter has been pretty good for me in the foxborough area so far, much better than most winter forecasts predicted. I have been following the long range forecasts and it appears the polar vortex is expected to re consolidate, now the question that will determine whether winter ends or we get another 4-6 weeks or so (prob closer to 4 but late March even can’t be ruled out), is where will the polar vortex go when it re strengthens? If it ends up over central to western Canada like some of the models are showing we will probably have more snow threats but since that is more west we will likely be fighting ptype issues, as is typical in March. If it goes over the North Pole winter is likely over and we will see record warmth. If it goes farther south in southern central Canada we could see multiple blizzards with record breaking cold and the potential for the Boston area to double its yearly avg snowfall. Based on my analysis of both the models and the current pattern drivers, I am of the belief that we will indeed see 4-6 more weeks of winter with multiple Miller Bs delivering several feet of snow to Eastern Mass. I don’t buy the early spring calls, while we had a rough stretch between the December storm and late jan, it appears that the strong La Niña in place has taken over and is now dominating the pattern. We had a record warm pacific in the early part of winter, but the strong La Niña has done its work to cool the pacific down and allow Canadian air masses to spread farther south and east since there isn’t as much mild pacific air to modify them anymore, which led to our storm threats this week and the historic ice storm in the Deep South. That La Niña hasn’t gone anywhere, and will continue to influence our pattern in March. With the pacific now having been cooled down by our La Niña, combined with the seasonal transition that occurs during March, I see a month with wild temp swings, a battle between an anomalously strong ridge in the southeast and equally anomalous frigid air straight from the North Pole spilling into the northern tier of the country. This extreme contrast in temperatures should create a boundary where storms will form, and it will help juice them up. Due to the southeast ridge in place these storms aren’t going out to sea. In fact I am of the belief that storms will initially try to cut to Ohio, but will run into a brick wall in the form of a frigid, snowpack enhanced arctic airmass and will then reform to the south, rapidly gaining strength due to the southeast ridge enhanced warm waters, coming up the coast and throwing record breaking amounts of moisture into a frigid arctic airmass sitting over New England. This is a Miller b pattern that I believe we will see quite often in March, with a perfect storm of seasonal transition, La Niña, and climate change enhanced thermal gradient allowing lows to rapidly deepen to the 950s and even 940s, hurricane force lows bringing extreme wind to Eastern Mass and several feet of snow PER STORM. These Miller bs will bring blizzard conditions to the Boston area while DC is raining. I do not expect the deep snowpack to last long, with some days having the warm air winning the battle bringing us into the 60s and 70s, with several of these days especially in the latter half of March being sandwiched between historic Miller B blizzards with temps in the teens. When all is said and done, I predict 80-90 inches of snow for the year in the Boston Area.

 

what do you guys think about the rest of winter and my analysis? I haven’t been this excited about a winter stretch since March 2018, and before that Feb 2015.

this isn't going to happen.  It is extreme.  You said several feet of snow PER STORM but Boston only gets 80-90 total?  Several feet of snow in a storm suggests 3 or 4 feet, so you are saying multiple storms of 3-4+ feet per storm in March?  When was the last 940-950 storm off of New England?  You aren't George, you are the love child of James and Jebwalk, and your grandfather is Roger Smith.

[Go Kart Mozart]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

Disclaimer- the following is an amateurs analysis of the upcoming pattern in March. I am trying to learn more so I welcome all constructive criticism, as it will help me make better forecasts. My goal is to learn enough to make winter forecasts like some of the more experienced members of the board.

This winter has been pretty good for me in the foxborough area so far, much better than most winter forecasts predicted. I have been following the long range forecasts and it appears the polar vortex is expected to re consolidate, now the question that will determine whether winter ends or we get another 4-6 weeks or so (prob closer to 4 but late March even can’t be ruled out), is where will the polar vortex go when it re strengthens? If it ends up over central to western Canada like some of the models are showing we will probably have more snow threats but since that is more west we will likely be fighting ptype issues, as is typical in March. If it goes over the North Pole winter is likely over and we will see record warmth. If it goes farther south in southern central Canada we could see multiple blizzards with record breaking cold and the potential for the Boston area to double its yearly avg snowfall. Based on my analysis of both the models and the current pattern drivers, I am of the belief that we will indeed see 4-6 more weeks of winter with multiple Miller Bs delivering several feet of snow to Eastern Mass. I don’t buy the early spring calls, while we had a rough stretch between the December storm and late jan, it appears that the strong La Niña in place has taken over and is now dominating the pattern. We had a record warm pacific in the early part of winter, but the strong La Niña has done its work to cool the pacific down and allow Canadian air masses to spread farther south and east since there isn’t as much mild pacific air to modify them anymore, which led to our storm threats this week and the historic ice storm in the Deep South. That La Niña hasn’t gone anywhere, and will continue to influence our pattern in March. With the pacific now having been cooled down by our La Niña, combined with the seasonal transition that occurs during March, I see a month with wild temp swings, a battle between an anomalously strong ridge in the southeast and equally anomalous frigid air straight from the North Pole spilling into the northern tier of the country. This extreme contrast in temperatures should create a boundary where storms will form, and it will help juice them up. Due to the southeast ridge in place these storms aren’t going out to sea. In fact I am of the belief that storms will initially try to cut to Ohio, but will run into a brick wall in the form of a frigid, snowpack enhanced arctic airmass and will then reform to the south, rapidly gaining strength due to the southeast ridge enhanced warm waters, coming up the coast and throwing record breaking amounts of moisture into a frigid arctic airmass sitting over New England. This is a Miller b pattern that I believe we will see quite often in March, with a perfect storm of seasonal transition, La Niña, and climate change enhanced thermal gradient allowing lows to rapidly deepen to the 950s and even 940s, hurricane force lows bringing extreme wind to Eastern Mass and several feet of snow PER STORM. These Miller bs will bring blizzard conditions to the Boston area while DC is raining. I do not expect the deep snowpack to last long, with some days having the warm air winning the battle bringing us into the 60s and 70s, with several of these days especially in the latter half of March being sandwiched between historic Miller B blizzards with temps in the teens. When all is said and done, I predict 80-90 inches of snow for the year in the Boston Area.

 

what do you guys think about the rest of winter and my analysis? I haven’t been this excited about a winter stretch since March 2018, and before that Feb 2015.

I agree.  With everything.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

2/22 still showing up on euro/eps. 

Get that one to dig just a little more and it would prob be a nice miller B Tip-NJ model storm. 

 

Yeah I’m not really sold on the idea we get out of this month without several concerns ... maybe into the first week of March. 
 

also - op runs are fighting ensemble means. Wondering what the PNA and AO look like over at the EPS 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS and GFS op have a good pattern.

Is this an 18z distinction for the next 2 week? 
 

I just have this weird vision that we get slammed by Gatling gun PAC waves for 17 days then it goes summer in mid March in a grand flip. Like the seasonal change back in 2010 in April - it was like 48 with low DP pellets next day 65 next day upper 80s

[512high]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is this an 18z distinction for the next 2 week? 
 

I just have this weird vision that we get slammed by Gatling gun PAC waves for 17 days the it goes summer in mid March is s grand flip. 

Tip, I hope transitioning is gradually, not a blizzard March 7 and a week later 80 for example, but I would take that over 40 and rain

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, 512high said:

Tip, I hope transitioning is gradually, not a blizzard March 7 and a week later 80 for example, but I would take that over 40 and rain

Lol - you took my flip vision and doubled it down 

I dunno ‘bout blizzards to bliss in a week ... but I’d say if March ins like a lion ... and flipped mid month that’s pretty damn abrupt 

[Ginx snewx]

42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I’m not really sold on the idea we get out of this month without several concerns ... maybe into the first week of March. 
 

also - op runs are fighting ensemble means. Wondering what the PNA and AO look like over at the EPS 

I posted them in response to your winter over post

[Ginx snewx]

Let's all hope for this kind of March

https://bluehill.org/observatory/2018/03/remembering-the-incredible-snowstorms-of-march-1956/

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Let's all hope for this kind of March

https://bluehill.org/observatory/2018/03/remembering-the-incredible-snowstorms-of-march-1956/

Yeah, let's do that again, although Tip won't like it ruining his mid-March flip.  Especially if we get additional snow in April like that year produced.

[78Blizzard]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Let's all hope for this kind of March

https://bluehill.org/observatory/2018/03/remembering-the-incredible-snowstorms-of-march-1956/

That Daily Weather Map depicted brings back memories, as it looked just like the ones I subscribed to as a kid back around 1960.  Of course by the time you received it in the mail it was a couple of days afterwards, but without our technology today it was a nice way to follow the weather across the country.  I think the reports were around 7am on the ones subscribed to.  Back in those days postage was like 4-5 cents.

[George001]

3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

this isn't going to happen.  It is extreme.  You said several feet of snow PER STORM but Boston only gets 80-90 total?  Several feet of snow in a storm suggests 3 or 4 feet, so you are saying multiple storms of 3-4+ feet per storm in March?  When was the last 940-950 storm off of New England?  You aren't George, you are the love child of James and Jebwalk, and your grandfather is Roger Smith.

I am a believer in this patterns potential to break records. We have already seen some unusual things with 9 inches of snow in Seattle, temps in the teens and single digits in Texas, a 3-4 inch snowstorm in DALLAS with another one coming. This pattern is an extreme and record breaking pattern, if any pattern can break snowfall records in March, it’s this one. We have already seen that when compared to the last 2 winters that this one is built different. That said, if I’m right we will far exceed those 80-90 totals. We will get that in March alone if my forecast is correct, so I will have to adjust that upwards.

[George001]

The euro improved for both the Friday Storm and the following Tuesday. It has half a foot on Friday, and It looks to have a Miller b the following Tuesday. For the Tuesday storm it has a low transfer from Ohio off the coast, strengthening into a 995mb low right over Nantucket. This could lead to blizzard conditions if things trend in the right direction over the next few days.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

The euro improved for both the Friday Storm and the following Tuesday. It has half a foot on Friday, and It looks to have a Miller b the following Tuesday. For the Tuesday storm it has a low transfer from Ohio off the coast, strengthening into a 995mb low right over Nantucket. This could lead to blizzard conditions if things trend in the right direction over the next few days.

Jimmy? I know this is you

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

GGW right from the start. To the moon little weenie, to the moon.

[EastonSN+]

Talk about a tight squeeze

 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about a tight squeeze

 

Overunning or SWFE pattern 

[JB_Wchstr]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Which ensembles? Lots of great looking members in the EPS

Plenty of crappy ones from where I’m standing lol

[mahk_webstah]

19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Talk about a tight squeeze

 

Scooter highs show up there as the waves come across?

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Feet per storm?

One day at a time.

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Scooter highs show up there as the waves come across?

Negative NAO and Negative EPO fighting negi PNA and SE ridge. 

[JC-CT]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

One day at a time.

Feet per day omg

EPS looks fine

[CoastalWx]

34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Which ensembles? Lots of great looking members in the EPS

Wrong thread, but it would need to developer sooner or else it’s SE flow ahead of it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wrong thread, but it would need to developer sooner or else it’s SE flow ahead of it. 

Yup . Fair shot it cuts north . Still time, but ugly look 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup . Fair shot it cuts north . Still time, but ugly look 

How is this an ugly look lol

[mahk_webstah]

23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Negative NAO and Negative EPO fighting negi PNA and SE ridge. 

That's a fight I like

[Ginx snewx]

My son in Omaha is crying for his Momma