Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Dr. Dews said: It's over It's not "over" either... Look, both sides of the question seem to knee jerk to extremes every ensemble cycle ... It may take a couple of week .. maybe even three - The question's really related to how spring will begin to arrive, subsequent early speculation about what form it takes - then, deeper into March. At which point.. it should be f'n over. I think there's been some local-decadal scaled conditioning to 'expect' winter to protract into the spring, but March is fickle.. and 1/3 of them have been above normal with embedded obscene heat since 2000 anyway. It just that over the last 5 years, that has been rarefied. It's really more like a signal that gets us a better chance for one of those 1/3 warm years ... in March Fairly? - it probably shouldn't have really be brought up in this thread - you can thank yours truly ... Pretty sure I posted about this last week when the GEFs handling of the AO clearly and concertedly, every member included, tightly aligned along a +5 SD recovery ... It's just that the ballast of that recovery starts ..now ( really ..) through March 1. We don't really do threads that are seasonal-based. If anything, last night's CPC as anyone can go see ...is even more recovered - with unusual concerted agreement. That looks like a warm spring hemisphere in that particular teleconnector out there into the first week of March. It's funny ... while that is happening the operational GFS looks like it cannot actually be a part of its own ensemble system - like it stands apart as an distinctly different physically scaffold'ed model design! It could not be more diametrically opposed. If it were more in disagreement out there toward week two, it would be modeling on a different planet altogether. I don't think the recent trend and current "panache" of its board of ensemble members like the direction of the chair in this case.. and proooobably are gunning for the latter's retirement for being too old and out-moded, and not seeing the direction of the company. ...Ha, I like that metaphor. It's like "Meet Joe Black," only the Reeper in this case is the combination the La Nina and the HC expansion working together, under and the inevitable return of the sun. So with every member having recovered all the way to +1 or 1.5 SD, and the PNA slipping negative... and the NAO neutral positive ... There is no combination of those larger mass field indicators that really suggests anything resembling the GFS hyperbole winter signal will take place... It attempts a monster -EPO, cold dump... setting up Canada to justify what it does every year at this time... pump out model runs that end summer until next Thanks Giving! But I'm being hypobolic The GFS does this every year around this time ... It's native physics some how, some way ...negates seasonal change. I think it is just uniquely qualified not to detect spring because the model also rages in a N/stream hard-on, most of the time anyway. It runs some -6 to -10 dm colder heights N of the ambient polar jet compared to all over guidance, at all times, beginning beyond D4 .. 5, and growing more discernible the deeper on in range. Since this modulation appears to maybe need a threshold out there...week two, its likely to see it last ..and then argue when it starts to see, too. There could be a storm with blue bomb/snow potential Feb 23-25th. The GGEM/Euro/ GFS ...and every GEF members carries a trough through eastern N/A during that time, and there is still substantive cold N of the 40 within grabbing distance ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Spring was already under way here on the CT shoreline weeks ago. I had dandelions and weeds coming up, my roses were leafing out, bulbs sprouting. Any exposed grass is brown but under my pack my lawn is lush and green. Was digging out some firewood and the lawn looks great under the pack. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 years ago kicked off part 1 of the icing on the cake of epicosity. Make winters great again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The 18th has been trending less amped the past few GFS FV3 runs. Maybe the thump will be decent on this if we can continue that trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: The 18th has been trending less amped the past few GFS FV3 runs. Maybe the thump will be decent on this if we can continue that trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Almost time to fire up a thread for the 18th Although these are sorta being smeared together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Cmc is also trending less amped for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Almost time to fire up a thread for the 18th Although these are sorta being smeared together 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is also trending less amped for Thursday 6+ thump to IP and slot? Melts Thursday on DSD 40+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 19 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: 6+ thump to IP and slot? Melts Thursday on DSD 40+? Ukie is also less amped 33 is the highest it gets for NYC Getting colder on every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie is also less amped 33 is the highest it gets for NYC Getting colder on every run Ukie is about as good as the Navgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ukie is about as good as the Navgem. The other models are also trending less amped with that storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 CMC for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, BrianW said: Yore... Valentines Day 2007 will always be my true love. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 50 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: CMC for both. So much for those runs with 20”+ totals for everyone we were seeing a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro is pretty cold too for 2/18. At the moment that one looks a bit similar to Tuesday except the PV which was originally supposed to settle in ahead of Tuesday, actually settles in after Tuesday and we have an arctic antecedent airmass which would be better for starting as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I guess we hope for Thursday after Tuesday's mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Euro is pretty cold too for 2/18. At the moment that one looks a bit similar to Tuesday except the PV which was originally supposed to settle in ahead of Tuesday, actually settles in after Tuesday and we have an arctic antecedent airmass which would be better for starting as snow. the cold comes pouring into Wednesday and Thursday? That always makes for a better storm, better ratios, and a whole better feel to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: VDay 1962 was more impressive imho I can think of 50 storms that were/are ... - although, yeah yeah they didn't happen to fall on this fateful day. I think that "yore" is really more of a highlight as to the cultural/adaptive relevancy of era for "big" events. It's why I kinda sorta wonder how bad it really was for the Colonials when/ if one could ever imagine transporting our modern tech and standards for recovery ... back in time? Like, 'magine if General Custard had a couple of Gatling Guns pointed up those hills ? 1940 wasn't exactly burlap clothed clothing, .. or wading through it to take a shit at 2:13 am in a "blizzard" ... out of a drafty log cabin hosting earwigs and silverfish ... no. But, that era did not benefit from posi-traction slip differential SUV's that could rover Mars ... either. Nor were households impervious to the elements with central masturbatory heating ... while refrigerators were full of 7 layer dips waiting for the convenience of the microwaves for dipping during any in the constelation of overly stimulating Internet and television distractions that give us the illusion of dystopia - Like, 'magine taking anyone from today back to a 6-10" snow storm of 1740 ... sans these conveniences ? Oh my god!!! 8-15 inches was traffic arresting for days .. shit, that much doesn't even stop me from ordering a pizza now - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 42 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Valentines Day 2007 will always be my true love. I lived in Burlington from 2006-2010 when my wife was at UVM. My memory is a little fuzzy from that time frame.. Lol. But I remember it being redicously cold and snowy those years. I wish I still had my pictures from that storm. My car was buried to the roof. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess we hope for Thursday after Tuesday's mess. Having Tuesday amped helps Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro has a potential miller b Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Having Tuesday amped helps Thursday I was wondering about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is pretty cold too for 2/18. At the moment that one looks a bit similar to Tuesday except the PV which was originally supposed to settle in ahead of Tuesday, actually settles in after Tuesday and we have an arctic antecedent airmass which would be better for starting as snow. ORH doesn't break freezing until day 9 on the Euro after over 2 inches of some kind of precip has fallen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ORH doesn't break freezing until day 9 on the Euro after over 2 inches of some kind of precip has fallen. Cold run after Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I can think of 50 storms that were/are ... - although, yeah yeah they didn't happen to fall on this fateful day. I think that "yore" is really more of a highlight as to the cultural/adaptive relevancy of era for "big" events. It's why I kinda sorta wonder how bad it really was for the Colonials when/ if one could ever imagine transporting our modern tech and standards for recovery ... back in time? Like, 'magine if General Custard had a couple of Gatling Guns pointed up those hills ? 1940 wasn't exactly burlap clothed clothing, .. or wading through it to take a shit at 2:13 am in a "blizzard" ... out of a drafty log cabin hosting earwigs and silverfish ... no. But, that era did not benefit from posi-traction slip differential SUV's that could rover Mars ... either. Nor were households impervious to the elements with central masturbatory heating ... while refrigerators were full of 7 layer dips waiting for the convenience of the microwaves for dipping during any in the constelation of overly stimulating Internet and television distractions that give us the illusion of dystopia - Like, 'magine taking anyone from today back to a 6-10" snow storm of 1740 ... sans these conveniences ? Oh my god!!! 8-15 inches was traffic arresting for days .. shit, that much doesn't even stop me from ordering a pizza now - Have you ever read the 2 volume set of Early American Winters by David Ludlum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: So much for those runs with 20”+ totals for everyone we were seeing a few days ago. Yeah, was thinking the same thing. We’ve had a few of those trend that way. Days and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ORH doesn't break freezing until day 9 on the Euro after over 2 inches of some kind of precip has fallen. Yeah the hemispheric pattern is changing but it’s still pretty cold here through D10...we’ll see what happens beyond that but I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a couple legit threats in the Feb 22-26 time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ORH doesn't break freezing until day 9 on the Euro after over 2 inches of some kind of precip has fallen. They just did break freezing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They just did break freezing. Obviously meaning once precip starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Obviously meaning once precip starts Hit 33.1 here today which I think is only the 2nd time this month over 32 . That ice may be hanging around for quite some time . Some depends on if Thursday night/ Friday is snow or ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now