Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: My lean for now at d7 favors the interior though. My lean favors WTFNs. Could be a cutter, could be a miss, could be a hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Weenies shouldn't worry about anything happening 100+ hrs away true that. I wish I had the will to take a break for model-watching for about 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: My lean favors WTFNs. Could be a cutter, could be a miss, could be a hit. Thanks captain obvious but I have fun with tracking by hedging. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: true that. I wish I had the will to take a break for model-watching for about 4 days. Meh, common guys tracking is half the fun lol. It’s all the better when it actually pays off but I love the chase just as much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Meh, common guys tracking is half the fun lol. It’s all the better when it actually pays off but I love the chase just as much! Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Meh, common guys tracking is half the fun lol. It’s all the better when it actually pays off but I love the chase just as much! eh, whatever happens will happen regardless of how many times i stay up for the euro Plus, I feel like the rarity of a significant event is lost on me when you see those weenie model outputs for days prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Icon, hey tip you mentioned a 996mb low ripping it? Lol right on cue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Wow that ICON solution is like tipping over a cliff trying to fall into line - that should roll under beyond 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Icon, hey tip you mentioned a 996mb low ripping it? Lol right on cue that solution's gotta be feet. not out on tt yet, so can't be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Yeah I mean juggernaut pressure wells are A list Hollywood but aren’t necessary -, kinematic circumstance, is Jan 19 1978 broke the Logan 24 snow record over top a 1000mb low. You just need to max a couple physical processes it’s like Linus ... silent thumb sucker but boy can mother f’er rock the piano. We’ll see but models seem like their swapping memos here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 52 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Meh, common guys tracking is half the fun lol. It’s all the better when it actually pays off but I love the chase just as much! The really good tracking isn't until <100 hours any way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Man same damn nodal low affect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Man same damn nodal low affect GFS continues with the dumbell underneath SNE. Such a long way to go but this is what it’s about. The tracking, the science...sprinkled with some emotion lol (some more than others). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 36 hour storm on the CMC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah I mean juggernaut pressure wells are A list Hollywood but aren’t necessary -, kinematic circumstance, is Jan 19 1978 broke the Logan 24 snow record over top a 1000mb low. You just need to max a couple physical processes it’s like Linus ... silent thumb sucker but boy can mother f’er rock the piano. We’ll see but models seem like their swapping memos here Schroeder was the piano player. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: 36 hour storm on the CMC Some relatively underwhelming dynamics on some of these runs with the H5 low kind of sloppy....that's why its taking like 30 hrs to get 14" of snow. Obviously meaningless at this point, but something to watch for. People have this slow mover, duration fetish, but 9/10 times its dynamics that drive of excessive snows...not duration. Usually like half of the 30 hours is nuisance variety....its all about how intense the dynamics are in they prime window of time, which is seldom linger than about 12 hours. Its gets very banded after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 Excellent Euro EPS snow storm here. Decades to go on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Excellent Euro EPS snow storm here. Decades to go on this one How much otg by your 64th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 hours ago, weathafella said: How much otg by your 64th? If no cutter 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Feb can't be any worse than JanSent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I'd love 36 hours to get 14". Much wintry appeal, keeps the good times going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: Feb can't be any worse than Jan Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Looks like a potentially active Feb and March with the MJO finally going into 7 and 8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Some relatively underwhelming dynamics on some of these runs with the H5 low kind of sloppy....that's why its taking like 30 hrs to get 14" of snow. Obviously meaningless at this point, but something to watch for. People have this slow mover, duration fetish, but 9/10 times its dynamics that drive of excessive snows...not duration. Usually like half of the 30 hours is nuisance variety....its all about how intense the dynamics are in they prime window of time, which is seldom linger than about 12 hours. Its gets very banded after that. I noticed the same thing.... there is also precip issues south of Boston on some of these runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Yea...D6. I’m just happy to keep the signal close by and I’ll worry about banding or precip issues in 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea...D6. I’m just happy to keep the signal close by and I’ll worry about banding or precip issues in 3-4 days. Exactly. Banding/precip issues usually aren't pinned down until we're < 36 hours out anyway. Just keep the signal alive. Looks active (albeit cutter-ish) after this one, so we'll have chances going for a while afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Yeah there isn’t really a reason to diagnose banding or dynamics. That will change on the op runs. The ensembles have a nice signal and that’s all you can ask for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah there isn’t really a reason to diagnose banding or dynamics. That will change on the op runs. The ensembles have a nice signal and that’s all you can ask for. Yea, I understand. I mentioned that I was just commenting on the runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 There are some huge hits on the ens that would also indicate not to sweat op details just yet either. Long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea...D6. I’m just happy to keep the signal close by and I’ll worry about banding or precip issues in 3-4 days. Glad that it's inside day 10 at least. Just keep the signal strong on the ensembles for a few more days, that's all I ask. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 LR Telleconnections for Feb show a real tendency for a Neg Nao Neg EPO. After the storm which maybe a Heather event based on telles, expect a mild couple of days then we dig back in for the duration of Feb with the 2nd and 3rd weeks seemingly prime storm and snow chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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