40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s like an alternate universe.. you wake to Jerry throwing huge MF’s around and pumped , Ray as excited as he’s been in years on snows and a general great vibe.. and now that’s gone and replaced with bad charts and fat women singing . What a melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I am honestly at peace with whatever happens....if the pattern breaks, we have already had a decent winter.....I'm okay with warmth, ready for baseball and my outlook is more accurate. If we rock on, the benefit of more snow is self-explanatory. The one thing that would irritate me is lingering cold with no reward, and that seems very unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 30 minutes ago, Whineminster said: it will be almost march by then, so the warmth is coming. Can already hear a lot more bird activity. Yeah.... I get that every year roughly now... this week actually. It seems the aviary community is responsive to the solar cycle ( perennial oscillation as cuing perhaps ?) .. The solar min begins on November 8th ...and ends at Feb 8th at 45 deg N. I am not sure what metric is used to define/ .. calculate that time delineation - but that is the duration. Maybe it has to do with flux/irradiance... watts/square-meters .. I dunno. Contrasting - naturally - the max is May 8th to August 8th. So of course the transition seasons are in between. The astute reader sees the 3-month periodicity of each. I think of the first day of "Sun Spring" to be Feb 8th. Climate lag ( which is a 300,000 page novel of reasons for 'lagging' ...), we don't really sensibly taste the seasonal change until much later - or are not supposed to anyway, any year between the Younger-Dryas climate motif and approximately the year 2010 ( lol ) ... Just being droll. But flora is perhaps in part evolutionarily programmed by both sun and climate, and appreciative warmth isn't noticed until later by human registry. Birds are different perhaps - I digress... Every year when this time comes ...the aviary fauna around my neighborhood pops to life at dawn. It doesn't seem to matter how cold it is..either. They did that on Feb 15 in 2015, when we were getting dystopian 850 mb -EPO conveyors in between 30:1 cryo bombs on the coast. 7am... birds arguing out of window and darting too and fro. I always thought that was interesting... Like, how the insides of cars don't need heaters mid day on sunny days post that magical date... Like clock work.. got in the car yesterday ... it was 28 F at the time outside in the ambience, but it was maybe 72 inside. That was not the case when it was sunny last week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah.... I get that every year roughly now... this week actually. It seems the aviary community is responsive to the solar cyclone ( perennial oscillation as cuing perhaps ?) .. The solar min begins on November 8th ...and ends at Feb 8th at 45 deg N. I am not sure what metric is used to define/ .. calculate that time delineation -but that is the duration. Contrasting - naturally - the max is May 8 to August 8. And of course the transition seasons are in between... SO, the astute reader sees the 3 month periodicity of each. I think of the first day of "Sun Spring" to be Feb 8th. Climate lag ( which is a 300,000 page novel of reasons for 'lagging' ...), we don't really sensibly taste the seasonal change - or are not supposed to anyway, any year between the Younger-Dryas climate motif and approximately the year 2010 ( lol ) ... Just being droll. I digress... Every year when this time comes ...the aviary fauna around my neighborhood pops to life at dawn. It doesn't seem to matter how cold it is..either. They did that on Feb 15 in 2015, when we were getting dystopian 850 mb -EPO conveyors in between 30:1 cryo bombs on the coast. 7am... birds arguing out of window and darting too and fro. I always that that was interesting... Like, how the insides of cars don't need heaters mid day on sunny days post that magical date... Like clock work.. got in the car yesterday ... it was 28 F at the time outside in the ambience, but it was maybe 72 inside. That was not the case when it was sunny last week. This definitely qualifies as a "warm bum-bums in the car" Tip post. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 There it is ! Lol ... now I can go on with the rest of my day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 thursday system looks messy also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Looks rainy on GFS. Ice inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks rainy on GFS. Ice inland. Yup, ugly GFS run for SNE/CNE for the Thursday system. Still time to trend that colder but not the trend I was looking to see. GFS showing how days and days of snow for SNE can be days and days of yuck for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS says goodbye sun for a week, so there's that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yup, ugly GFS run for SNE/CNE for the Thursday system. Still time to trend that colder but not the trend I was looking to see. GFS showing how days and days of snow for SNE can be days and days of yuck for some. Days and days of icing NH/ VT border on south starting Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Days and days of icing NH/ VT border on south starting Saturday night I think Tuesday ends up some decent snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I think Tuesday ends up some decent snow for you. I do not. I think this is turning into either a prolonged sleet or zr situation for both events, or it just ends up morphing into one protracted event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I do not. I think this is turning into either a prolonged sleet or zr situation for both events, or it just ends up morphing into one protracted event A week of freezing drizzle and sleet would be pretty unpleasant for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: A week of freezing drizzle and sleet would be pretty unpleasant for some. Next full week of commuting to/from work looks like shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Maybe a Jan 1998 vibe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I'll take a cold dry pattern over this. All set. Enjoy though if it's your thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 So...for SNE Sunday - Light SN/IP/FRDZ, less than 1” Monday - Cloudy, Light SN/IP/FRDZ Tuesday - Overrunning event, SN to IP, RN SE. Light to moderate amounts of winter precipitation. Wednesday - In between events Thursday/Friday - Mix to rain for most. Bottom line - a miserable week incoming with little to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Ukmet not biting on the warm solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Ukmet not biting on the warm solutions Wrong thread? This is up thru mid-weeks storm. Ukie was ready to deliver late week as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Wrong thread? This is up thru mid-weeks storm. Ukie was ready to deliver late week as well. I think this is more what is likely to happen frankly ... although I'd be inclined to shave 2-3" off that layout This antecedent air mass appears too liberally eroded out by the Euro (00z) and this recent GGEM solution(s), given to phsyical limitations of having armed polar high N-W, while the baroclinic axis is clearly already S-E of the region.. Not sure why these runs are running up that much warm intrusion to the surface/lower sigma levels... but, even if they are right in principle with 'compacting' the front N into southern throwing distance, I suspect the ptype bands are not as liberally smeared IP that far N into the interior. Short version, there valid reasons to question the Euro( 00z) GGEM (12Z) Oh, that's the whole week's snow - okay.. I thought that was just the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 BTW, the GFS op shows you what happens without a -NAO. Just an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think this is more what is likely to happen frankly ... although I'd be inclined to shave 2-3" off that layout This antecedent air mass appears too liberally eroded out by the Euro (00z) and this recent GGEM solution(s), given to phsyical limitations of having armed polar high N-W, while the baroclinic axis is clearly already S-E of the region.. Not sure why these runs are running up that much warm intrusion to the surface/lower sigma levels... but, even if they are right in principle with 'compacting' the front N into southern throwing distance, I suspect the ptype bands are not as liberally smeared IP that far N into the interior. Short version, there valid reasons to question the Euro( 00z) GGEM (12Z) This is exactly what I was trying to say yesterday, when all hell broke loose. 2-3" off of 9-10" is about 6-8". Exactly....typical SWFE. I think that is pretty reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 25 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: So...for SNE Sunday - Light SN/IP/FRDZ, less than 1” Monday - Cloudy, Light SN/IP/FRDZ Tuesday - Overrunning event, SN to IP, RN SE. Light to moderate amounts of winter precipitation. Wednesday - In between events Thursday/Friday - Mix to rain for most. Bottom line - a miserable week incoming with little to show for it. You guys just had a series of snow events. Climo says you are due for some stinkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is exactly what I was trying to say yesterday, when all hell broke loose. 2-3" off of 9-10" is about 6-8". Exactly....typical SWFE. I think that is pretty reasonable. That product is also the whole week's cumulative - I don't have a problem with light to low end moderate events - that seems to be a correction staging point... others, like the 14th, have do-do to less even. The fact of doing so seemed to rub the wrong way, and as usually is the case... if someone brings in a lucid objective red flag to the fray, people knee jerk react to the facet ...as though it's - I dunno - some troll thing? to vanquishing everything ... but I'm not gonna get into it. I never said it wasn't coming yesterday ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That product is also the whole week's cumulative - I don't have a problem with light to low end moderate events - that seems to be a correction staging point... others, like the 14th, have do-do to less even. The fact of doing so seemed to rub the wrong way, and as usually is the case... if someone brings in a lucid objective red flag to the fray, people knee jerk react to the facet ...as though it's - I dunno - some troll thing? to vanquishing everything ... but I'm not gonna get into it. I never said it wasn't coming yesterday ... I guess it just irritated me that you lumped me in with that MO...I think most would tell you I'm not biased towards snow. I desire it, yes....but I call it how I see it. I just happened to disagree.....which is fine. I respect your opinion, and just ask for that to be reciprocated because what you have implied does not demonstrate that. Obviously I am no pro, but I feel like that's common courtesy. Nothing personal at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I really really hope CMC is off its rocker. With my snowpack and iced gutters gonna be some problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I really really hope CMC is off its rocker. With my snowpack and iced gutters gonna be some problems. I have a hard time buying that...sorry. Not out of any bias, but for the same reason I have doubted a HECS all season....when in doubt, hedge towards less phasing. I was wrong on the no big dogs this season, so maybe I'll be wrong again, but I will go down with that ship. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Classic wintry pattern for CAD land up here. The more junk in the trunk in SNE the better up here. Plus we can start sneaking in some DSD days post CAD. Lookin good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 LOVE that gfs. lfg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Euro looking a bit further East overall for later next week. Coming up coast now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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