ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess we hope for that if 2/17 just gets to be a mess. You can see the difference between the two camps.... Euro ------> warmer for 2/17, colder for 2/18-19 GFS ---------> colder for 2/17, warmer for 2/18-19 GGEM kind of in between. Hopefully we luck out and are just far enough north on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I have a gut feeling the whole week yields not much snow in SNE and a ton of sleet and zr with the snows in NNE. I can see how it’s an ice version in SNE of 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: You can see the difference between the two camps.... Euro ------> warmer for 2/17, colder for 2/18-19 GFS ---------> colder for 2/17, warmer for 2/18-19 GGEM kind of in between. Hopefully we luck out and are just far enough north on both. Good summary and goes back to your post about the first storm more amped or less amped based on the euro and gfs. Leads to the opposite effect on the following storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Kevin so excited at the thought of crippling ice storms in all of SNE next week Undoubtedly this will lead to the wrath of his legion of haters for wishing this upon us. Calling an ice storm 5 days out has about the same odds as Wiz being right calling for a SNE outbreak 5 days out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You can see the difference between the two camps.... Euro ------> warmer for 2/17, colder for 2/18-19 GFS ---------> colder for 2/17, warmer for 2/18-19 GGEM kind of in between. Hopefully we luck out and are just far enough north on both. Models seem to have had a warm bias this winter? Seems like it would remain pretty cold at the surface pointing to more sleet or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, TheBudMan said: Kevin so excited at the thought of crippling ice storms in all of SNE next week Undoubtedly this will lead to the wrath of his legion of haters for wishing this upon us. Calling an ice storm 5 days out has about the same odds as Wiz being right calling for a SNE outbreak 5 days out. Legion of haters? On a weather board ? Should I contact the police? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Models seem to have had a warm bias this winter? Seems like it would remain pretty cold at the surface pointing to more sleet or ice. Guidance has definitely been a bit too mild on most of our medium range threats recently. Best chance for icing IMHO is the freezing drizzle or light freezing rain on the first "system"...esp southern portions of CT/RI for Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Pike north or especially Rt. 2 north might cash on some decent snow next week. Looks really gross for you southern folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully we go back to less of a mess next week. I admit I got a little sad when seeing that with the longer range. You spook so EASILY...you jump on the littlest negative. Ginxy had to settle you down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: You spook so EASILY...you jump on the littlest negative. Ginxy had to settle you down. Spooked? I laid out the reasons. I can't change that, not even nasty Ginx. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Ma nature gonna throw the Kitchen sink at us over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Ma nature gonna throw the Kitchen sink at us over the next week. Hopefully you don't have a clogged drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Hopefully you don't have a clogged drain. Make sure to clean them pipes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Meh. Disappointing end to the historic negative AO cycle. Yes this IS a melt. I take some solace in the fact that the black line is south of the bottom red line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, DomNH said: Pike north or especially Rt. 2 north might cash on some decent snow next week. Looks really gross for you southern folks. North and West is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Big -PNA drop too. If the NAO doesn't materialize, the fat lady starts to sing. yup - thanks for re-iterating this siren - it's blaring to those of us without e-psychotropic lenses - you mentioned 'thaw' yesterday; i took that as an op/launch pad to inform the same thing. overnight that siren sounds a bit more like a distant wwii air-raid drill. we'll enjoy the next 10 days - but ... your guess is as good as mine where this wagon rolls afterward ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not 2 days ago you guys were excited and thinking deep winter well into Morch. One bad and probably wrong overnight charts run and winter has ended. I mean lol not me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, radarman said: I take some solace in the fact that the black line is south of the bottom red line This is a really good point actually - ...gotta be aware of the maintaining error in the tele's ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 ... but in folks' defense ... others overreact. they take mere observations as absolute and gospel ...no other option - the previous mode must not count or doesn't exist heretic worthy of lord of the flies retribution lol no, they're just observations. i mean, that -AO starting at -5 or -6 and ending up +1 in 5 f'ing days isn't something that should be ignored - now ...that may be over doing it? sure - but it shouldn't go unnoticed. plus, frankly this is a hemisphere that is presently spring loading ( pun intended! ) by an erstwhile suppressed (la nina+ HC)/2 influence... if released, booinnnng - these latter factors could even 'synergistically' make a warm spring get out of control ... "could" - just an observation. relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is a really good point actually - ...gotta be aware of the maintaining error in the tele's ... Yeah I mean this is about as big of a block of warm colors as we've seen since late Jan-Early Mar 2010... Possibly worth noting that the decline of the blocking thereafter only lasted about 2 weeks with the AO going just over neutral before zonal heights over the pole spiked right back up again. Granted, a late winter -AO doesn't guarantee frigid temps, but more than likely would help suppress any tendency for a big Nina-esque SE ridge I would think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yup - thanks for re-iterating this siren - it's blaring to those of us without e-psychotropic lenses - you mentioned 'thaw' yesterday; i took that as an op/launch pad to inform the same thing. overnight that siren sounds a bit more like a distant wwii air-raid drill. we'll enjoy the next 10 days - but ... your guess is as good as mine where this wagon rolls afterward ... Annual 75 degree February day coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I have a gut feeling the whole week yields not much snow in SNE and a ton of sleet and zr with the snows in NNE. I can see how it’s an ice version in SNE of 94 My gut is they both end up mainly snow/sleet in my area, since big ice is pretty rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 57 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Annual 75 degree February day coming up Lol, I was just thinking about that - In the last 5 years, maybe 6 .. 7, we have observed some, pretty much arresting warm anomalies is the best way to put it. I piled out of my office one afternoon in mid February one of those years. I wanna side 2018 before the March collapse and snow reminded with cruelty. Earlier that afternoon, while I was pecking away at software code, my door was ajar to my office. I more at unconsciously became aware as their voices Doppler'ed up and down while passing by , " - so ridiculously warm outside I .." - unintelligible fade. I mean, I knew it was going to be so ...all things considering and who we are as nerds. But that - heh... no one has shown that week of extraordinary weather results with nearly the appreciation it really deserves, ever since, if you ask me. March arrived, and the "phew" psychology for the weather community seemed to quietly bury its significance - something has ... Anyway, I did not really honestly anticipate what would become of my sensible weather destiny that afternoon as I piled out of the office. It's one thing to intellectually process the model guidance and see it - "feeling" it on the skin, ...entirely a different spiritual significance. I froze, in awe, slowly turning my eyes back and forth begging a toe hold on reality, standing there mid way through a proper winter month, at 42 and change latitude N, in New England of all places... mid 80s That was an absolute first for me and still ... the idea of having a diurnal height ... 45 to 50 F above normal (mind us, 'normal' in the ~ ides of February is ...what 38 ) that's hard to wrap one's mind around intellectually or spiritually ... I don't know how to really scale that. I mean, what ? "Half-a hundred over climo" ...?? what does one say that captures that. As hard to do as it may be to finally accept that ever happen... and allow it to be quietly buried as just one of those things in weather-life... It happened in mid March the year before. And before that, we had heat in April the drove temperatures into the 90s - although that took place rather dramatically in rogue hot-month back in 1976 I believe it was... 4 days in the mid 90s. Dr. Colby and I geeked for a few minutes at the obs directory from that April and May that spring, and there really wasn't ever a recidivism of colder climes at any point... it was either 65 of mid 80s pretty much from April 10 to through June - don't recall exactly ...maybe there was a couple or few days worth where it slipped back to 45 but they were brief. See that's different though ( intuitively/ .. existentially) It is different because that was a stand alone spring ( overall ) looking at that previous 50 ... 100 years perhaps. Until 2009 ... that years, and since, we've had our share of blue bomb snow events in spring...but we have also registered some uncanny warm episodes that are outlandish. By the way, that 1976 sprig heat was provided by a moderate antecedent La Nina hemisphere - just sayn' Lol, I was just thinking about that - In the last 5 years, maybe 6 .. 7, we have observed some, pretty much arresting warm anomalies is the best way to put it. By the way, that 1976 sprig heat was provided by a moderate antecedent La Nina hemisphere - just sayn' 1976 -1.6 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: North and West is best. Depends....if the energy is transferring as the system passes though the region, then north east could be best. In any event, latitude may finally pay dividends over the course of the coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Depends....if the energy is transferring as the system passes though the region, then north east could be best. In any event, latitude may finally pay dividends over the course of the coming week. Agreed. I read Hippy's post and my first thought was "probably just north" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: yup - thanks for re-iterating this siren - it's blaring to those of us without e-psychotropic lenses - you mentioned 'thaw' yesterday; i took that as an op/launch pad to inform the same thing. overnight that siren sounds a bit more like a distant wwii air-raid drill. we'll enjoy the next 10 days - but ... your guess is as good as mine where this wagon rolls afterward ... it will be almost march by then, so the warmth is coming. Can already hear a lot more bird activity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I guess we hope for that if 2/17 just gets to be a mess. I was still waiting for the other shoe to drop, and break mild this month for a delayed-but not-denied outcome in relation to pre-seasons thoughts for Feb, but I'm just in wait and see, at this point. I am confident that once it breaks, we will have a nice spring. My gut is that I'm getting at least another 10" of snow....I don't feel like this winter is going to leave me with significantly below normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Agreed. I read Hippy's post and my first thought was "probably just north" Especially at this point in the season, when the ocean is really only a big factor along the immediate coast...if this were Dec/early January, different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: We are really lucky that the ridging saved us this month. If it wasn't for that then we would be talking about flowers blooming. February has always depended on the NAO this season....that much was clear dating back to last fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: No my first name ain’t baby.. it’s Janet ... Miss. Jackson if you’re nasty . I don't know why that made me laugh so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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