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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess we hope for that if 2/17 just gets to be a mess.

You can see the difference between the two camps....

Euro ------> warmer for 2/17, colder for 2/18-19

GFS ---------> colder for 2/17, warmer for 2/18-19

GGEM kind of in between.

Hopefully we luck out and are just far enough north on both. :lol:

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see the difference between the two camps....

Euro ------> warmer for 2/17, colder for 2/18-19

GFS ---------> colder for 2/17, warmer for 2/18-19

GGEM kind of in between.

Hopefully we luck out and are just far enough north on both. :lol:

Good summary and goes back to your post about the first storm more amped or less amped based on the euro and gfs. Leads to the opposite effect on the following storm.

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Kevin so excited at the thought of crippling ice storms in all of SNE next week :damage:

 

Undoubtedly this will lead to the wrath of his legion of haters for wishing this upon us.     Calling an ice storm 5 days out has about the same odds as Wiz being right calling for a SNE outbreak 5 days out. 

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34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see the difference between the two camps....

Euro ------> warmer for 2/17, colder for 2/18-19

GFS ---------> colder for 2/17, warmer for 2/18-19

GGEM kind of in between.

Hopefully we luck out and are just far enough north on both. :lol:

Models seem to have had a warm bias this winter? Seems like it would remain pretty cold at the surface pointing to more sleet or ice.

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Just now, TheBudMan said:

Kevin so excited at the thought of crippling ice storms in all of SNE next week :damage:

 

Undoubtedly this will lead to the wrath of his legion of haters for wishing this upon us.     Calling an ice storm 5 days out has about the same odds as Wiz being right calling for a SNE outbreak 5 days out. 

Legion of haters? On a weather board  ? Should I contact the police?

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3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Models seem to have had a warm bias this winter? Seems like it would remain pretty cold at the surface pointing to more sleet or ice.

 

Guidance has definitely been a bit too mild on most of our medium range threats recently. Best chance for icing IMHO is the freezing drizzle or light freezing rain on the first "system"...esp southern portions of CT/RI for Sunday/Monday.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Big -PNA drop too. If the NAO doesn't materialize, the fat lady starts to sing.

yup - thanks for re-iterating this siren - it's blaring to those of us without e-psychotropic lenses -

you mentioned 'thaw' yesterday; i took that as an op/launch pad to inform the same thing.

overnight that siren sounds a bit more like a distant wwii air-raid drill. 

we'll enjoy the next 10 days - but ... your guess is as good as mine where this wagon rolls afterward ...

 

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... but in folks' defense ... others overreact.  they take mere observations as absolute and gospel ...no other option - the previous mode must not count or doesn't exist heretic worthy of lord of the flies retribution lol

no, they're just observations. 

i mean, that -AO starting at -5 or -6 and ending up +1 in 5 f'ing days isn't something that should be ignored -

now ...that may be over doing it?  sure - but it shouldn't go unnoticed.  

plus, frankly this is a hemisphere that is presently spring loading ( pun intended! ) by an erstwhile suppressed (la nina+ HC)/2 influence... if released, booinnnng - these latter factors could even 'synergistically' make a warm spring get out of control ... "could" - just an observation.  relax

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is a really good point actually -  ...gotta be aware of the maintaining error in the tele's ...

Yeah I mean this is about as big of a block of warm colors as we've seen since late Jan-Early Mar 2010...  Possibly worth noting that the decline of the blocking thereafter only lasted about 2 weeks with the AO going just over neutral before zonal heights over the pole spiked right back up again. Granted, a late winter -AO doesn't guarantee frigid temps, but more than likely would help suppress any tendency for a big Nina-esque SE ridge I would think.

time_pres_HGT_ANOM_JFM_NH_2021.png

 

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup - thanks for re-iterating this siren - it's blaring to those of us without e-psychotropic lenses -

you mentioned 'thaw' yesterday; i took that as an op/launch pad to inform the same thing.

overnight that siren sounds a bit more like a distant wwii air-raid drill. 

we'll enjoy the next 10 days - but ... your guess is as good as mine where this wagon rolls afterward ...

 

Annual 75 degree February day coming up

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have a gut feeling the whole week yields not much snow in SNE and a ton of sleet and zr with the snows in NNE. I can see how  it’s an ice version in SNE of 94

My gut is they both end up mainly snow/sleet in my area, since big ice is pretty rare.

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57 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Annual 75 degree February day coming up

Lol, I was just thinking about that -

In the last 5 years,  maybe 6 .. 7, we have observed some, pretty much arresting warm anomalies is the best way to put it.

I piled out of my office one afternoon in mid February one of those years. I wanna side 2018 before the March collapse and snow reminded with cruelty.  Earlier that afternoon, while I was pecking away at software code, my door was ajar to my office. I more at unconsciously became aware as their voices Doppler'ed up and down while passing by , " - so ridiculously warm outside I .." - unintelligible fade.  I mean, I knew it was going to be so ...all things considering and who we are as nerds. But that - heh... no one has shown that week of extraordinary weather results with nearly the appreciation it really deserves, ever since, if you ask me.  March arrived, and the "phew" psychology for the weather community seemed to quietly bury its significance - something has ... Anyway, I did not really honestly anticipate what would become of my sensible weather destiny that afternoon as I piled out of the office. It's one thing to intellectually process the model guidance and see it - "feeling" it on the skin, ...entirely a different spiritual significance. I froze, in awe, slowly turning my eyes back and forth begging a toe hold on reality, standing there mid way through a proper winter month, at 42 and change latitude N, in New England of all places...  mid 80s

That was an absolute first for me and still ... the idea of having a diurnal height ... 45 to 50 F above normal (mind us, 'normal' in the ~ ides of February is ...what 38 ) that's hard to wrap one's mind around intellectually or spiritually ...  I don't know how to really scale that.  I mean, what ?   "Half-a hundred over climo" ...??  what does one say that captures that.  

As hard to do as it may be to finally accept that ever happen... and allow it to be quietly buried as just one of those things in weather-life... It happened in mid March the year before.  And before that, we had heat in April the drove temperatures into the 90s - although that took place rather dramatically in rogue hot-month back in 1976 I believe it was... 4 days in the mid 90s.  Dr. Colby and I geeked for a few minutes at the obs directory from that April and May that spring, and there really wasn't ever a recidivism of colder climes at any point... it was either 65 of mid 80s pretty much from April 10 to through June - don't recall exactly ...maybe there was a couple or few days worth where it slipped back to 45 but they were brief. 

See that's different though ( intuitively/ .. existentially) It is different because that was a stand alone spring ( overall ) looking at that previous 50 ... 100 years perhaps.  Until 2009 ... that years, and since, we've had our share of blue bomb snow events in spring...but we have also registered some uncanny warm episodes that are outlandish. 

By the way, that 1976 sprig heat was provided by a moderate antecedent La Nina hemisphere - just sayn'    

Lol, I was just thinking about that -

In the last 5 years,  maybe 6 .. 7, we have observed some, pretty much arresting warm anomalies is the best way to put it.

By the way, that 1976 sprig heat was provided by a moderate antecedent La Nina hemisphere - just sayn'   

1976 -1.6 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5
         
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends....if the energy is transferring as the system passes though the region, then north east could be best.

In any event, latitude may finally pay dividends over the course of the coming week.

Agreed. I read Hippy's post and my first thought was "probably just north"

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yup - thanks for re-iterating this siren - it's blaring to those of us without e-psychotropic lenses -

you mentioned 'thaw' yesterday; i took that as an op/launch pad to inform the same thing.

overnight that siren sounds a bit more like a distant wwii air-raid drill. 

we'll enjoy the next 10 days - but ... your guess is as good as mine where this wagon rolls afterward ...

 

it will be almost march by then, so the warmth is coming.  Can already hear a lot more bird activity. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I guess we hope for that if 2/17 just gets to be a mess.

I was still waiting for the other shoe to drop, and break mild this month for a delayed-but not-denied outcome in relation to pre-seasons thoughts for Feb, but I'm just in wait and see, at this point. I am confident that once it breaks, we will have a nice spring.

My gut is that I'm getting at least another 10" of snow....I don't feel like this winter is going to leave me with significantly below normal snowfall.

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