Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not entirely sure you are getting my point frankly - it's not about 2-4 or 3-5 as a snow call - the point is, these have been normalizing coming in from mid range all season. "Highly doubt" is not a substantive logical counter point to that former fact, and the former fact ( unfortunately ...) is. Ya gotta give more to offset: - performance trend - fast velocity flow/progressivity not lending to bigger payloads I'm just trying to keep equal consideration for less - maybe call it devil's advocate, only in this case ... the devil is reality .. well, maybe objectivity Yes I agree no guarantee on a significant storm as most storms have trended less amped and have been sheared by the time they get here. Just like the Sunday storm was supposed to be a classic SWFE now look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yes I agree no guarantee on a significant storm as most storms have trended less amped and have been sheared by the time they get here. Just like the Sunday storm was supposed to be a classic SWFE now look at it. That signal was not as strong as the one for Tuesday within 5 days. I know that I never expected much from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That signal was not as strong as the one for Tuesday within 5 days. I know that I never expected much from it. True, just extra cautious this year, as some crazy things have happened in guidance close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: True, just extra cautious this year, as some crazy things have happened in guidance close in. I completely get what he is saying because we have seen SWs attenuate as they move towards us all season long. But I think its pretty clear that this one will maintain enough strength while crashing into an arctic high for widespread several inches. I think the high is a game changer that really elevates the floor here via isentropic lift. I just don't see the mechanisms for appreciable precip production completely drying up, no pun intended. Now, I agree that some of these runs, like the 00z EURO, dropping widespread 10-12" are overdone....but widespread 6"+ where it is mostly snow is pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I completely get what he is saying because we have seen SWs attenuate as they move towards us all season long. But I think its pretty clear that this one will maintain enough strength while crashing into an arctic high for widespread several inches. I think the high is a game changer that really elevates the floor here via isentropic lift. Now, I agree that some of these runs, like the 00z EURO, dropping widespread 10-12" are overdone....but widespread 6"+ where it is mostly snow is pretty likely. Ya great point about the high, that really should help not just for locking in cold but to enhance the snow rates. You can get some great snow rates in setups like this before the mix moves in (mix down here at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, but its not exactly a LES belt is my point. Right. I went to high school in Lowville NY which is pretty much smack dab in the middle of LES belt. Plenty of 20+ events off the lake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 45 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya great point about the high, that really should help not just for locking in cold but to enhance the snow rates. You can get some great snow rates in setups like this before the mix moves in (mix down here at least). I envision a wall of snow moving in Tues AM...virga to heavy in ten minutes...BANG. Quick 7", followed by pings, then slot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I envision a wall of snow moving in Tues AM...virga to heavy in ten minutes...BANG. Quick 7", followed by pings, then slot. Just try to keep it after 8am when I get home from work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Gfs looks great for the 16th. Just Too bad the popecast never pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS looked like crap for the 16th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs looks great for the 16th. Just Too bad the popecast never pans out. Just now, dryslot said: GFS looked like crap for the 16th. Maine FTL again I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 This thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Great for Lukes area, Dogsh it for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: I'm guessing it trended south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Great for lukes area, Dogsh it for here. If I were you, I like where the gfs is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs looks great for the 16th. Just Too bad the popecast never pans out. That overrunning is starting to look a bit interesting, little to no storm Sunday, just light frozen precip all day Monday, followed by a snowstorm on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If I were you, I like where the gfs is lol. Honestly, I don't care where it is, Just commenting on what it looked like up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have no issue with that and am not implying a worse outcome...I just mean that some future runs may go nuts, and have S CT salivating, only to trend back or just be wrong. 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Great for Lukes area, Dogsh it for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs looks great for the 16th. Just Too bad the popecast never pans out. Good news is v.16 went south too. All snow for SNE and the V.16 is much more accurate. This still reminds me of the 2007 slizzard though. 6 inches of pure sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: That overrunning is starting to look a bit interesting, little to no storm Sunday, just light frozen precip all day Monday, followed by a snowstorm on Tuesday I’m selling the popecast hard. Nice to look at, the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Great for Lukes area, Dogsh it for here. why are we worried about the old GFS 6 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Gfs has temps in the teens when precip starts. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Good news is v.16 went south too. All snow for SNE and the V.16 is much more accurate. This still reminds me of the 2007 slizzard though. 6 inches of pure sleet. What a bitch that was to plow, will never forget 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Good news is v.16 went south too. All snow for SNE and the V.16 is much more accurate. This still reminds me of the 2007 slizzard though. 6 inches of pure sleet. Yup. I’ll be just fine with that too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Honestly, I don't care where it is, Just commenting on what it looked like up here. Just now, mahk_webstah said: why are we worried about the old GFS 6 days out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs looks great for the 16th. Just Too bad the popecast never pans out. what is the popecast for this coming week? Do I have to take communion to see it because that would be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m selling the popecast hard. Nice to look at, the end. Popecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, mahk_webstah said: what is the popecast for this coming week? Do I have to take communion to see it because that would be a problem. If communion is a problem, I'm guessing confession would be a catastrophe..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 LOL I just noticed @dryslot's avatar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 21 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: what is the popecast for this coming week? Do I have to take communion to see it because that would be a problem. Whatever the gfs shows, the pope forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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