February the climo snow month

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Storm after may be more of a SWFE too. Still plenty of time on that.

 

That one has been slowly cooling each run too the last few cycles.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wonder if Sunday’s storm just snows to ice and just never stops and one just morphs into the other 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah.. a lot more bass for some folks.  Some pinging in there as well, but that solidifies the pack

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Confirmed 83 exactly.  Once again ORHwxman’s recall on these things is redonkulous.  

LOL...that was somewhat lucky to get it exactly....I just knew it was close to that because I went to school out that way and NWS BGM was our local office.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Confirmed 83 exactly.  Once again ORHwxman’s recall on these things is redonkulous.  

I never bother to fact check him....guy is the human incarnate of GOOGLE. Whenever I am debating someone, and he takes the other side, I just immediately defer,  tip the cap to the other party and about face-walk away.

[weathafella]

Leon flexes, SNE enjoys.

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The 12z Euro looked like the 0z run.

I actually thought it was a tick less with QPF -

Also - there's some morphology in the 500 mb S/W layout. As the 17th's S/W gunk is rising over the SE ridge wall/interfacing it's structure is stretched(ing) compared to the previous run.  .. the 00z run was conserving more curved structure. 

See ... I just keep seeing the seasonal trend to diminish the strength of these features showing up in these on-going guidance behaviors - less than noticeably without bothering to do so.  I dunno - where's this one going to end up. Plus, the Euro tends to correct flatter going from the outer toward inner middle range, too.

Looking just beyond there's a sig L/W axis trying to set up around 100 W whilst the SE ridge is still pretty well anchored ... so given these destinies, the wave registry is shutting down on this 17th system - I think there will be something there ... I'm just quite unsure it will be all that significant. 

So, we have models over-assessing in that range as one thing. Then, synoptic limitations in there that offer doubt in their own rights - should we "choose" to look. Seems to me the objective thing here to suspect this ends up not as big. 

We'll see.  Everything I said is true, but if this run happens to nail it - it doesn't make what I said not true. It just means the mitigations halted.  I don't think these mitigations are going anywhere though.  Seasonal model performance trend doesn't lend to them exactly nailing a robust solution on D6 ... And the fast flow /SE ridge shit? ha, seems is the new world order lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I actually thought it was a tick less with QPF -

Also - there's some morphology in the 500 mb S/W layout. As the 17th's S/W gunk is rising over the SE ridge wall/interfacing it's structure is stretched(ing) compared to the previous run.  .. the 00z run was conserving more curved structure. 

See ... I just keep seeing the seasonal trend to diminish the strength of these features showing up in these on-going guidance behaviors - less than noticeably without bothering to do so.  I dunno - where's this one going to end up. Plus, the Euro tends to correct flatter going from the outer toward inner middle range, too.

Looking just beyond there's a sig L/W axis trying to set up around 100 W whilst the SE ridge is still pretty well anchored ... so given these destinies, the wave registry is shutting down on this 17th system - I think there will be something there ... I'm just quite unsure it will be all that significant. 

So, we have models over-assessing in that range as one thing. Then, synoptic limitations in there that offer doubt in their own rights - should we "choose" to look. Seems to me the objective thing here to suspect this ends up not as big. 

We'll see.  Everything I said is true, but if this run happens to nail it - it doesn't make what I said not true. It just means the mitigations halted.  I don't think these mitigations are going anywhere though.  Seasonal model performance trend doesn't lend to them exactly nailing a robust solution on D6 ... And the fast flow /SE ridge shit? ha, seems is the new world order lol

It was...couple of inches less. Expected...00z had like 10-12", which is usually too much for a SWFE....this 7-10" is more like it-

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah... hard for a SWFE to break 10"    That's pretty much a lock

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah... hard for a SWFE to break 10"    That's pretty much a lock

A prevalent model bias, in addition to not being aggressive enough with mid level warming to the east of the mid level lows, is to be too heavy with QPF.

[Baroclinic Zone]

CJ going on on in here... I'm out.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was...couple of inches less. Expected...00z had like 10-12", which is usually too much for a SWFE....this 7-10" is more like it-

mm hm, but ...the lack of consideration for dimming trends is like what Scott was complaining about earlier  - I see the same thing..

Lucid "counter extraordinary" posting content  ... ignored or ridiculed.  Like, it seems there are veracious reasons to assess even "3-5" ..or, even "2-4" may be more like it .. 

For some reason, that doesn't get the same accolades - lol ...

sorry that's funny.   true, but funny

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm hm, but ...the lack of consideration for dimming trends is like what Scott was complaining about earlier  - I see the same thing..

Lucid "counter extraordinary" posting content  ... like, it seems there are veracious reasons to assess even "3-5" ..or, even "2-4" may be more like it .. 

For some reason, that doesn't get the same accolades - lol ...

sorry that's funny.   true, but funny

I'll take the over on that.

Highly doubt this ends up 2-4" in this area....maybe further south due to precip type issues.

[Ginx snewx]

Sorry not Sorry, but slamming with that amount of PWAT into an arctic airmass isn't yielding 2 to 4. Extreme slope as well. Trending to the 12 13 07 type solutions.

[qg_omega]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I though they avged around what we do...mid 60's.

Must be from the rotting LES.

they have had 20+ inch LES events before.

[weathafella]

SWFE winters have frequently had a lot of snow.   2007-08, 2008-09, arguably 2010-11.   Remember 12/16/07 formed Kevin’s bias.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, qg_omega said:

they have had 20+ inch LES events before.

Yea, but its not exactly a LES belt is my point.

[qg_omega]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, but its not exactly a LES belt is my point.

agreed, they do have elevation also especially at the airport its kinda a weenie spot.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, but its not exactly a LES belt is my point.

BGM topography is better for rejuvenating rotting LES bands than a place like Ithaca is. Being further east also helps them a little more with synoptic coastals. 

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the over on that.

Highly doubt this ends up 2-4" in this area....maybe further south due to precip type issues.

I'm not entirely sure you are getting my point frankly -

it's not about 2-4 or 3-5 as a snow call - the point is, these have been normalizing coming in from mid range all season.

  "Highly doubt" is not a substantive logical counter point to that former fact, and the former fact ( unfortunately ...) is.  Ya gotta give more to offset:

- performance trend

- fast velocity flow/progressivity not lending to bigger payloads

I'm just trying to keep equal consideration for less - maybe call it devil's advocate, only in this case ... the devil is reality .. well, maybe objectivity

[cleetussnow]

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

LOL...that was somewhat lucky to get it exactly....I just knew it was close to that because I went to school out that way and NWS BGM was our local office.

I went to Binghamton and I would have guessed 60 or so.  I was going to troll your figures but decided to look it up instead which turned out to be the right move.  I grew up just west of BGM and we only averaged 45 so 83 seemed high, but the last decade might have had a big impact on averages up there.  I suspect it also gets some orographic enhancement since the catskills are just to the east of there.  

 

 

[cleetussnow]

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

they have had 20+ inch LES events before.

Very rare.  Once in 2017 is the last one i recall.  Has to be a georgian bay connection that is sustained and winds perfectly aligned.  

[JB_Wchstr]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BGM topography is better for rejuvenating rotting LES bands than a place like Ithaca is. Being further east also helps them a little more with synoptic coastals. 

I went to school there.  We’d definitely get those random bands out of nowhere.  

[qg_omega]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Very rare.  Once in 2017 is the last one i recall.  Has to be a georgian bay connection that is sustained and winds perfectly aligned.  

There was one when I was at Cornell many many years ago

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BGM topography is better for rejuvenating rotting LES bands than a place like Ithaca is. Being further east also helps them a little more with synoptic coastals. 

Yea, that is what I figured.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not entirely sure you are getting my point frankly -

it's not about 2-4 or 3-5 as a snow call - the point is, these have been normalizing coming in from mid range all season.

  "Highly doubt" is not a substantive logical counter point to that former fact, and the former fact ( unfortunately ...) is.  Ya gotta give more to offset:

- performance trend

- fast velocity flow/progressivity not lending to bigger payloads

I'm just trying to keep equal consideration for less - maybe call it devil's advocate, only in this case ... the devil is reality .. well, maybe objectivity

I get your point.

I think you're wrong...and you should get over it frankly.

I don't see fast flow as being prohibitive of a moderate 4-8" or 6-10" type of "payload" from an attenuating system in the face of confluence, abutting arctic air.

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, SnowEMass said:

I went to school there.  We’d definitely get those random bands out of nowhere.  

 

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BGM topography is better for rejuvenating rotting LES bands than a place like Ithaca is. Being further east also helps them a little more with synoptic coastals. 

So Ithaca gets 63 average, and 45 miles to the southeast,  BGM gets 83.  The difference must the coastals and orographics.  Ithaca gets the same LE roughly that BGM gets I bet, since the trajectory would be aligned the same for both cities.  

I grew up in elmira which is due south of Ithaca, and that place averages 45 ish.  No LE to speak of, and coastals nearly always are too far east.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

 

So Ithaca gets 63 average, and 45 miles to the southeast,  BGM gets 83.  The difference must the coastals and orographics.  Ithaca gets the same LE roughly that BGM gets I bet, since the trajectory would be aligned the same for both cities.  

I grew up in elmira which is due south of Ithaca, and that place averages 45 ish.  No LE to speak of, and coastals nearly always are too far east.  

Yea, I was lumping BGM more in with spots like Ithaca.

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

 

So Ithaca gets 63 average, and 45 miles to the southeast,  BGM gets 83.  The difference must the coastals and orographics.  Ithaca gets the same LE roughly that BGM gets I bet, since the trajectory would be aligned the same for both cities.  

I grew up in elmira which is due south of Ithaca, and that place averages 45 ish.  No LE to speak of, and coastals nearly always are too far east.  

ehh cortland gets a good amount more than Ithaca being slightly NE and lines up better with where BGM airport is.

[JB_Wchstr]

20 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

 

So Ithaca gets 63 average, and 45 miles to the southeast,  BGM gets 83.  The difference must the coastals and orographics.  Ithaca gets the same LE roughly that BGM gets I bet, since the trajectory would be aligned the same for both cities.  

I grew up in elmira which is due south of Ithaca, and that place averages 45 ish.  No LE to speak of, and coastals nearly always are too far east.  

Yes we’d get the coastals and very hilly area too. That was a long time ago, seems like in recent years the coast gets more direct impacts than that far inland but I certainly haven’t looked at it.