Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: As I said earlier, there might be a break. I do wonder though.. could that be sign of an end to this winter - just an early speculation here. Not all at once per se ..but that's the turner - This year smacks as not being like the last several, where there was onset NAOs that crippled Aprils and May for warmth. Granted, it's only entering mid Feb but usually - in my experience - when the Earth wants to do a region a different idea it starts hinting its coming. These are like those hints to me ( blw ), but they are hints I am intrigued by because we have ( La Nina spring climo + HC expansion ) and those two, together, are a bit of a constructive interference behind this spring's pattern. Whenever we get into that sort of "emergent" resulting stuff, the 'rogue' wave effect comes into play; we don't know if the synergistic result end up more than the sum of the individual players - by definition of course... Mapping those too effects over each other ...this could all end in a hurry, and it may not be a good spring for March snow. Or ..lol... watch, it'll be a +10 March with a single two day 30" bomb that has nothing to do with blocking - ... Kidding, but blocking or not, 'canon ball season' 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, he'd ask you if maybe time will tell? We just don’t know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Good, I hope it becomes reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I do wonder though.. could that be sign of an end to this winter - just an early speculation here. Not all at once per se ..but that's the turner - This year smacks as not being like the last several, where there was onset NAOs that crippled Aprils and May for warmth. Granted, it's only entering mid Feb but usually - in my experience - when the Earth wants to do a region a different idea it starts hinting its coming. These are like those hints to me ( blw ), but they are hints I am intrigued by because we have ( La Nina spring climo + HC expansion ) and those two, together, are a bit of a constructive interference behind this spring's pattern. Whenever we get into that sort of "emergent" resulting stuff, the 'rogue' wave effect comes into play; we don't know if the synergistic result end up more than the sum of the individual players - by definition of course... Mapping those too effects over each other ...this could all end in a hurry, and it may not be a good spring for March snow. Or ..lol... watch, it'll be a +10 March with a single two day 30" bomb that has nothing to do with blocking - ... Kidding, but blocking or not, 'canon ball season' Sonoran heat release? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Sonoran heat release? Christine will soon be clad in leopard skin thongs that will forever evade Tip's eyes, since the great Fox Hall restraining order of 1992. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Sonoran heat release? Hopefully you're kidding ..but gosh no - no, the use of those products is more symbolic. They are 'hints' that a warmer regime "might" be formulating and given time, it may bust through the dying AO proxy on the flow. Which I think the it's been heavily influencing above ~ 50 N much of the winter. It seems the blocky nature up N is in a weird incongruity wrt to the fast paced progressive flow sliding by underneath to the S. The hemisphere appears unusually strongly split between the Ferrel latitude circulation type ( roughtly above 50 N ...), vs the lower latitudes where the expanded HC is being compressed and we are seeing velocities/ progressive tendencies along the interface - not sure what your level of understanding/background is... but that's all more so than less, observably defining this winter to me. We don't typically see west limb -NAO blocking nodes with 140kt 500 mb jet streams blowing from Frisco to London underneath - that's unusual.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hopefully you're kidding ..but gosh no - no, the use of those products is more symbolic. They are 'hints' that a warmer regime "might" be formulating and given time, it may bust through the dying AO proxy on the flow. Which I think the it's been heavily influencing above ~ 50 N much of the winter. It seems the blocky nature up N is in a weird incongruity wrt to the fast paced progressive flow sliding by underneath to the S. The hemisphere appears unusually strongly split between the Ferrel latitude circulation type ( roughtly above 50 N ...), vs the lower latitudes where the expanded HC is being compressed and we are seeing velocities/ progressive tendencies along the interface - not sure what your level of understanding/background is... but that's all more so than less, observably defining this winter to me. We don't typically see west limb -NAO blocking nodes with 140kt 500 mb jet streams blowing from Frisco to London underneath - that's unusual.. Ice just threw his laptop out of the window in disgust.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Euro next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Euro is going to hit a lot of the forum hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Good luck dislodging that low level cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Classic SWFE. 700mb warms above 0C over CT/RI/ SE MA by 18z Tues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 NNE smack down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Classic SWFE. 700mb warms above 0C over CT/RI/ SE MA by 18z Tues. This is a pretty easy forecast...these are usually straight forward. Thermals will waffle, but just default to a climo forcast. Forecast 10"+ anywhere at your own peril. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Yeah solid warning thump it looks like transitioning to sleet and ZR right before the dryslot where there would be FZDZ. Low level cold doesn’t have a prayer of leaving...even down to the south coast of CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 If that look holds true there won’t be warning snow south of I 90. Typically it’s 3-5 or 6 then heavy icing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 That has been trending less amped, more snowier overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: If that look holds true there won’t be warning snow south of I 90. Typically it’s 3-5 or 6 then heavy icing Maybe. Depends how strong the thump is. This isn’t quite as far west as some typical SWFEs either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Classic SWFE. 700mb warms above 0C over CT/RI/ SE MA by 18z Tues. Its a bit colder than 00z, 0C 7H makes it to about Boston, rather than S NH.....I'd hedge warmer on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That has been trending less amped, more snowier overall. Models seem to always underestimate mid level warmth, though...I'd defer to NAM on that closer in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6-10" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That has been trending less amped, more snowier overall. One more tick and it won’t be a SWFE anymore here. More of a straight coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Models seem to always underestimate mid level warmth, though...I'd defer to NAM on that closer in. I'd hit that. We do well with a good airmass and man high around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: One more tick and it won’t be a SWFE anymore here. More of a straight coastal. S/W starts to shear near our latitude, but that's a lot of juice thrown into an arctic airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd hit that. We do well with a good airmass and man high around here. I have no issue with that and am not implying a worse outcome...I just mean that some future runs may go nuts, and have S CT salivating, only to trend back or just be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: S/W starts to shear near our latitude, but that's a lot of juice thrown into an arctic airmass. Another trend this season, but good in this case...otherwise its 2-5", then washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Some weenie mid level fronto right up into NNE too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Some weenie mid level fronto right up into NNE too. Everyone wins. Fluff for chickens, man snow here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Some weenie mid level fronto right up into NNE too. Congrats, Caribou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Everyone wins. Fluff for chickens, man snow here. A little bit of a screw zone here, but that's still bouncing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 The 12z Euro looked like the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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