February the climo snow month

[mahk_webstah]

Good discussion by Chris at GYX.  You can always tell when he or Ekster write it.  
 

Forecast Details: Ensemble guidance continues to show strong
support for a high PoP/low QPF event Sun night. S/WV trof will
traverse the Srn edge an anomalously deep upper low over Srn
Canada. Confluent flow over the Northeast will tend to inhibit
further strengthening of the wave...and as a result lighter QPF
is anticipated. This is also leading to higher chances for snow
in S and W zones before forcing tends to weaken. I feel like
model PoP is too low however despite low QPF output. So I have
increased PoP in the aforementioned zones to low likely.

It is beyond Sun that things become more interesting. Flow
starts becoming more amplified as a series of S/WV trofs carves
out the longwave pattern deeper and deeper. As these eject out
of the trof and head NEwe they will offer our chances for snow.
11.00z ensemble guidance is really beginning to consolidate
around Tue night/Wed system. There is yet another robust but
more variance for a system Fri or Sat.

As for the midweek potential...strong high pressure anchored N
of New England would favor colder temps and likely predominately
snow scenario. 11.00z EPS has a large majority of moderate to
heavy snow members...while the GEFS runs the gamut from null
events to moderate to heavy. Regardless...NBM PoP was low chance
to slight chance and I feel this is way too low given the
ensemble support for the last couple of days. I have increased
PoP closer to 50 percent for most of the forecast area. This is
both higher than climatology but not so high that I am
completely discounting the drier GEFS.

The end of the week potential carries much more uncertainty
given that it is 7 or 8 days away. In a reversal the GEFS is
actually more robust with this event than the EPS...but the NBM
PoP between 30 and 40 percent seemed reasonable given how far
out this is.

[ORH_wxman]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian has nothing, but a weak follow up wave right on Monday. Looks like that screws up the Tuesday Wednesday deal.

Canadian sort of partially phased the arctic shortwave with the southern stream deal so it ends up as this long stung out wave. No other guidance pseudo-phases them, though the 06z NAM looks like it would come close (but still not do it)

[Baroclinic Zone]

We in the GFS camp.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian sort of partially phased the arctic shortwave with the southern stream deal so it ends up as this long stung out wave. No other guidance pseudo-phases them, though the 06z NAM looks like it would come close (but still not do it)

Yeah just looking now. I think many would take a euro/gfs compromise. Hopefully we are losing the more amped solutions from previous days.

[CoastalWx]

Possible we may see a break after later next week? After that, looks like Greenland ridge maybe flexes a bit more and pushes SW while Dateline ridge flexes again. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looks Flexy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs for Tuesday 

That looks like a boring event for me on the GFS.

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That looks like a boring event for me on the GFS.

I'll take it! ..it's a lot better than going virtually snowless for 6+ weeks

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'll take it! ..it's a lot better than going virtually snowless for 6+ weeks

Reality will be further north, anyway.

[ORH_wxman]

06z EPS cooled again

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS cooled again

Not a surprising trend given that confluence over se Canada.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Weenies dream

Gefs is more squashed for Tuesday

06z GFS no dream for here - 2 or 3 whiffs/fringes followed by 2 cutters (then a day 14 snowstorm .)  Won't happen that way, fortunately.

[dryslot]

Only 5 more days to go...........

[dryslot]

Just now, tamarack said:

06z GFS no dream for here - 2 or 3 whiffs/fringes followed by 2 cutters (then a day 14 snowstorm .)  Won't happen that way, fortunately.

One mans dream is another's nightmare.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

One mans dream is another's nightmare.

GFS is a nightmare for you....even I would prefer it further north.

No sense sweating details at this stage, though.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

GFS is a nightmare for you....even I would prefer it further north.

No sense sweating details at this stage, though.

This whole month has been one, Wouldn't shock me if it continued.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

This whole month has been one, Wouldn't shock me if it continued.

Me neither. I'm all for switching it up, even though I have done well here.....don't think the majority would agree. lol

[mahk_webstah]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not a surprising trend given that confluence over se Canada.

This is a great track for all of us,  let’s see what other guidance says but the gfs being south doesn’t concern me at this point

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Me neither. I'm all for switching it up, even though I have done well here.....don't think the majority would agree. lol

Obviously not when most are sitting with over 30+" and were 12" here for the month

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

This whole month has been one, Wouldn't shock me if it continued.

We need a 2015 pattern where the lows are swinging north a little better....Maine got crushed during that too, not just SNE. Recently storms have been getting shoved east at the last second before they can get further north. At least this next storm looks like it will gain latitude a lot better than previous ones.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

This is a great track for all of us,  let’s see what other guidance says but the gfs being south doesn’t concern me at this point

Nah, me neither.

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

06z GFS no dream for here - 2 or 3 whiffs/fringes followed by 2 cutters (then a day 14 snowstorm .)  Won't happen that way, fortunately.

It's definitely a bit of a cruel run for parts of NNE. Whiffs, cutters, then more whiffs. About as bad as it gets.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We need a 2015 pattern where the lows are swinging north a little better....Maine got crushed during that too, not just SNE. Recently storms have been getting shoved east at the last second before they can get further north. At least this next storm looks like it will gain latitude a lot better than previous ones.

This is the Jeff's antichrist pattern....storms bailing ENE, instead of NE.

Ya hate to see it-

[dryslot]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We need a 2015 pattern where the lows are swinging north a little better....Maine got crushed during that too, not just SNE. Recently storms have been getting shoved east at the last second before they can get further north. At least this next storm looks like it will gain latitude a lot better than previous ones.

That is why i'm not huge on blocking, I'll take my chances on little or none, At least i will see some type of precip rather then none, This happens a lot up here and with the contour of the coastline and my proximity we will get grazed or whiffed, Most would not even notice it as they bask in the snow further south, I need these systems to track into the GOM, Tracking east of NS does little to nothing for here, I will say that next weeks looks good with the trajectory its coming from, Sunday is another crap shoot here.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the Jeff's antichrist pattern....storms bailing ENE, instead of NE.

Ya hate to see it-

Saw this whole act in 2010, Have lived it now for the last month, 22.7" has fallen here since 01/02, Most saw that in one storm last week.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That is why i'm not huge on blocking, I'll take my chances on little or none, At least i will see some type of precip rather then none, This happens a lot up here and with the contour of the coastline and my proximity we will get grazed or whiffed, Most would not even notice it as they bask in the snow further south, I need these systems to track into the GOM, Tracking east of NS does little to nothing for here, I will say that next weeks looks good with the trajectory its coming from, Sunday is another crap shoot here.

In a perverse way, I am happy to see two inland runners/cutters show up on the models now. They will trend SE over time and turn into snowstorms for here (or keep going SE and go poof).

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That is why i'm not huge on blocking, I'll take my chances on little or none, At least i will see some type of precip rather then none, This happens a lot up here and with the contour of the coastline and my proximity we will get grazed or whiffed, Most would not even notice it as they bask in the snow further south, I need these systems to track into the GOM, Tracking east of NS does little to nothing for here, I will say that next weeks looks good with the trajectory its coming from, Sunday is another crap shoot here.

I think you should get some Tuesday.

Sunday is crap, anyway...not missing much. Kev can post as many confused emoji's as he wants, it won't change the fact that its a couple of inches of fluff.

[PhineasC]

Can we get just one low to pass over SE Mass to fill the lakes and ponds and then meander in the GOM for a while? 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That is why i'm not huge on blocking, I'll take my chances on little or none, At least i will see some type of precip rather then none, This happens a lot up here and with the contour of the coastline and my proximity we will get grazed or whiffed, Most would not even notice it as they bask in the snow further south, I need these systems to track into the GOM, Tracking east of NS does little to nothing for here, I will say that next weeks looks good with the trajectory its coming from, Sunday is another crap shoot here.

Chris gave good guidance on Sunday.  A minor event but he thinks it will snow.  I'm bullish on the whole week next week.  Could be epic.  6-10 in the fields here and 8-14 in the woods.  Could have 2' solid snowpack by next weekend with no big melt in sight.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you should get some Tuesday.

Sunday is crap, anyway...not missing much. Kev can post as many confused emoji's as he wants, it won't change the fact that its a couple of inches of fluff.

Snow on snow on snow on snow so far this month let's keep up the beat.