NeonPeon Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: I've had 7" total since this epic February pattern developed. 0" --- 2/1-2/2 5" --- 2/7 2" --- 2/9 And no complaints. Looks great out there. Oh come on, there's a complaint embedded in this no complaint, if you are honest with yourself. I can identify. I've got less than you. Not complaining, of course! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I dunno, I think it snowed guys. Good lord with this neurotic nitpicking - it's now worse in lieu of some other style of delivery? LOL at the inconsolability ... - it snowed! I know ...I know... it wasn't evocative of enough excitement The 16th/17th is interesting ... Firstly, in the interest of fairness, the converging teleconnector signal appears to be failing to produce a correction event. In my defense, I did suggest the end point may extend out a bit longer. I mean, it's not like there are temporal boundaries on atmospheric events ...and being that far out there, who knows - That said, the 16/17 time range materializes from entirely different pattern morphology so ...I think in honesty it stands apart (causally...) It does not appear really at all by then to be related to the rising PNA, relaxing west-limb -NAO stuff. - these intervals are not always realized.. I know why in this case - strongly suspect I do ... The GGEM ( not a good model to me but just to make the case...), nicely shows the western end of the SPV failing to come down and capture/connect with the physical wave propagation of the intermediate stream out there later in the mid range. The culprit really appears to be wave propagation speeds .. The x-coordinate wave translation speed in the S, is too progressive ( fast ) wrt to the y-coordinate of the N (SPV) ... Thus it is not given enough time to move through the subsume process - meaning the S stream is outpacing the N/ streams ability to do so... So, we pass through that vulnerable period with shearing problems is what it really all boils down to.. But letting that go... the ~ 16th event's wave space/ mechanics are pure Pacific. As of the 00z's initialization ... said wave space's best discernible position in space is actual over the Sea of Japan!! It's that far ...yes, more literally than figuratively .... around the other side of the planet. And, is also all situated in the middle latitudes as a relay off the Asian continent. That feature is embedded in a tremendous accelerating wind tube along the underside of a very strong WPO vortex as it goes through some flexing ... moving forward in the modeling... and it squirts some 72 hours later near the Date Line... From there..it careens on nearly a flat flow trajectory through California by 120 hours... and 24 to 48 hrs later... "might" if it even exists, throw party up our way... Some cons ( you should be laughing a little at this point ...) : Flat progressive predictability is a bit of an oxymoron ... red flag. All season long, extended range and even many mid range systems are tending to mute as they get near in time. Lastly but surely not all .. .the hemispheric fast flow doesn't really promote curved trajectories in general ...so that does not lend to this thing, either. The pro is this is climo bomb time. The N stream does appear to relax... so, it is - speculative - possible the flow "decompresses" along the mid latitude heights more so than the model ar presently showing ... and that would emerge a better environment for purer Pacific waves to not be mooshed by the elephants ass of the N... All you can do is identify the period.....if in every instance said potential was realized, then we'd average 200". Obviously I'm hoping for another big ticket, as always, but this season has already bucked the trend for mod-strong cool ENSO to avoid big impactors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The GFS is more aggressive with the GL low compared to FV, but they both sort of shear the energy out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GEM is a coastal for 2/16....not a SWFE like GFS/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GEM is locked and loaded through day 10. Man would we take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 All we ask is this: Spare us the cutter. This song, LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Ukie has a big one developing on 2/16-17 too. Good antecedent airmass in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Scooter High, Gulf low...in between it gonna snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Scooter High, Gulf low...off to the southwest is where it will blow its load. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Temperature departures through the 1st third of the month... It's felt cold (here in NYC too)... But really hasn't been too bad. A bit colder relative to normal the further south you go, but I consider +/- 1 "normal." BOS: +0.6 BDL: -0.1 PVD: +0,6 ORH: +1.5 BDR: +0.3 ISP: -0.7 NYC: -0.9 EWR: -1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Take a moment to appreciate glazing at Brownsville Texas ? This has been a recurrent signal in the GFS runs ... this is actually the most striking it has been depicted, 120 hours from now .. the next frame after this as some mix that far that - ...that's pretty rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Yeah Tip, the cold into TX has a chance of being some of the worst since 1989. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 And "as is" - always a risk ... - the operational GFS takes that mess into an Eastern Lakes as bully-primary... but the layout of the PP up over Ontario/ antecedent air mass in New England would argue that is - ironically - a major glazer here after the perfunctory snow to start type of climo thing - I would also still caution modeling 'over assessment' as an on-going contamination to performance -related issue with all guidance. I don't trust big heavy sprawling systems in that post 120 hour frames to actually succeed because of the punishing failures to actually do so ...doesn't lend much confidence - to put it drolly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Hadley cryin' for his mama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah Tip, the cold into TX has a chance of being some of the worst since 1989. Didn't Will say he lived in Texas back then ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I wonder who will have the colder temp this winter. My chickens or DFW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I wonder who will have the colder temp this winter. My chickens or DFW. Lots of rhea running down the legs of aviation interests in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Hadley cryin' for his mama Does DuPage carry the 2-meter T's for this time ... ? Just curious cause the cold in that synopsis is - obviously .. - steeply sloped left in the sounding. I.e., it's probably colder than those contours/ .. perhaps neutral to the surface, in that advection region ..all the way down. I wonder if Brownsville could actually be flirting with 32 there ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEM is locked and loaded through day 10. Man would we take that. Take a few of these.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Does DuPage carry the 2-meter T's for this time ... ? Just curious cause the cold in that synopsis is - obviously .. - steeply sloped left in the sounding. I.e., it's probably colder than those contours/ .. perhaps neutral to the surface, in that advection region ..all the way down. I wonder if Brownsville could actually be flirting with 32 there ... BRO 27F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Fun sounding near DFW. Mix it out from H7 and it's a torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 egads ... invest in frozen futures i geuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 17th and 19th continue to look interesting in this mornings GEFS. We watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: egads ... invest in frozen futures i geuss Unless that crop report... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Didn't Will say he lived in Texas back then ? I was back in ORH by 1989....don't worry, I was back here in time to personally witness the historic ORH snow drought....one of my earliest memories though is our pipes bursting in Xmas 1983 in San Antonio. That was an epic cold outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 36 minutes ago, Hoth said: Unless that crop report... I grew up with that era's cinema ... with all those icons of the silver screen strutting and fretting their turns and terms upon the stage ... now never heard forever more ... vanquished by predatory time. I'll tell ya, it's one of the weirdest paradoxes of nature, time's claim on all that resides beneath the firmament ... perhaps one day the firm' itself. For every prey, there is a predator ... and these tend to be in balance. For if either fails the whole system collapses ... Yin and yang I suppose. But time? Time seems to be the only metric in emergence of reality that truly does not require said balance - It only feeds.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Euro going for a more SWFE look next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro going for a more SWFE look next week. Yep, that is a classic higher end warning SWFE look. Absolutel frigid antecedent airmass and the whole system slams into an arctic high situated near CAR or just north of them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 That's a nice look. Primary through Ohio New Hampshire will snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: That's a nice look. Primary through Ohio New Hampshire will snow I take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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