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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Could be toned up

We are 16 hours from the start of this event. I dont think it will shift enough to the NW to come back with good snow accumulations. I would say for you and me 3-6 at best. I would love to have more, but it's a rarety to see something change for the better at this juncture. The good thing is this week looks promising 

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My pre storm pre sunset photo of MBY. Notice the mini mountain ridge that lies before the train tracks behind it. I like to stare at that, and imagine it’s the Carson range I used to stare at when I was a kid in Sparks, NV.... and would watch the snow levels creep down to us slowly.

its basically a 2-5 crusty cover, and in my mind is like getting 3 free inches to add to tomorrow’s!!!

9ADFA66F-2904-4E6C-A597-86F3300AF27E.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

We are 16 hours from the start of this event. I dont think it will shift enough to the NW to come back with good snow accumulations. I would say for you and me 3-6 at best. I would love to have more, but it's a rarety to see something change for the better at this juncture. The good thing is this week looks promising 

Wrong thread.

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Went to RI today to Long Live Beerworks and Buttonwood .. huge gradient between Ginx area and W RI to PVD and Cranston. Basically 1” or bare ground in those areas to still 10-12” w RI to Ginx. Also can see how the snow in that area was paste. You can see where the coastal front set up in CT where it goes to powder about 5 miles NW of Killingly

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I realize all point an clicks are partly sunny for next Saturday, the 13th, but ...this could break dramatically in a direction were 'sunny' anything is a demonstratively inappropriate adjective for that day... In fact, beginning Thursday and may be not ending until Sunday.

This is a scenario where there is a medium registry for hemispheric signal in that 11th through 15th time frame - I mentioned this a few days ago, but this thing tomorrow is/was distraction.  This signal is still there - granted a little more prevalent in the GEFs ... but ( thank you Steve ) the EPS shows a -1 to + 1 SD modal change heading toward the ides of the month, and so the blend between them is sufficient to at least be aware ...

   a better performed/emergent +PNAP circulation type, could materialize over the western U.S. at any point in the model cycles leading and entering that time range.  It's dangerous, because there is a decay -NAO ( westerly limbed) that is probably going to be exerting a southward push ...and should that PNAP shake hemispheric hands, that lengthy snow/mix/zr/cold rain already noted, may morph more organized than a mere overrunning aspect.  

That's a durational ordeal ...mainly by virtue of the fact that is' basically everywhere E of 110 W across the mid latitudes are being torque around a modest cyclonic rotation with respect to the SPV(s) pearled out/or centered over S Canada...  That's the piece we gotta watch - just waiting for the western ridge to pop ( and the snow storm last week did that inside of 6 days ... upping the confidence considerably ..) - hint I almost expect it does... That SPV may start carving S-E ... Dont' want it to en mass however, because it'd be too much and to compressing on the field ...   Lots of complexity to it but I doubt the Thu/Fri + monitoring is so quiescent -

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4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize all point an clicks are partly sunny for next Saturday, the 13th, but ...this could break dramatically in a direction were 'sunny' anything is a demonstratively inappropriate adjective for that day... In fact, beginning Thursday and may be not ending until Sunday.

This is a scenario where there is a medium registry for hemispheric signal in that 11th through 15th time frame - I mentioned this a few days ago, but this thing tomorrow is/was distraction.  This signal is still there - granted a little more prevalent in the GEFs ... but ( thank you Steve ) the EPS shows a -1 to + 1 SD modal change heading toward the ides of the month, and so the blend between them is sufficient to at least be aware ...

   a better performed/emergent +PNAP circulation type, could materialize over the western U.S. at any point in the model cycles leading and entering that time range.  It's dangerous, because there is a decay -NAO ( westerly limbed) that is probably going to be exerting a southward push ...and should that PNAP shake hemispheric hands, that lengthy snow/mix/zr/cold rain already noted, may morph more organized than a mere overrunning aspect.  

That's a durational ordeal ...mainly by virtue of the fact that is' basically everywhere E of 110 W across the mid latitudes are being torque around a modest cyclonic rotation with respect to the SPV(s) pearled out/or centered over S Canada...  That's the piece we gotta watch - just waiting for the western ridge to pop ( and the snow storm last week did that inside of 6 days ... upping the confidence considerably ..) - hint I almost expect it does... That SPV may start carving S-E ... Dont' want it to en mass however, because it'd be too much and to compressing on the field ...   Lots of complexity to it but I doubt the Thu/Fri + monitoring is so quiescent -

Wow. Repeat of last weekend? You talk pretty.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wilton Felder is trying to pay a visit. 

Lol...I noticed that both GGEM and GFS pushed through an impulse earlier than previous runs for 2/11. There’s several impulses along that arctic boundary...def a bit ‘94-esque. 

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I'd be more OK with everything being shunted south of me to hit coastal SNE if it was at least cold here. It isn't cold at all.

Suppression sucks when you don't even have arctic cold to show for it. 

There will be plenty of frigid cold in the weeks to come. It's hardly even gotten started yet, but I'm sure you've seen that the models are showing some mind boggling lows for Presidents' Day weekend.

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Just now, Fozz said:

There will be plenty of frigid cold in the weeks to come. It's hardly even gotten started yet, but I'm sure you've seen that the models are showing some mind boggling lows for Presidents' Day weekend.

That's good, I would expect suppression then. I just hate suppression when temps aren't even cold. Just seems bootleg to me. Dumb pattern.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Wilton Felder is trying to pay a visit. 

Steve missed on the Jan 2011 call, but he looks good for Feb 94....this def. looks like a very cold pattern with a slew of moderate overrunning deals, as opposed to big bombs.

I was clearly wrong about Feb, as I didn't not see the major SSW coming at all. I though the PV would recover, so that is a game changer.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I am trying to figure out what this means ....??  

It’s a running joke Will and I, have. We remember those 90s jazz themes around 93-94 on to the late 90s as we were watching radar every 10 minutes during some of these great winters like 93-94. 

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