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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Euro south for next week.

That thing is getting more and more sheared out every run....I am starting to agree with Tip that we punt that one in favor of 2/12-2/13. We might still get something light out of 2/9, but I am doubting a major QPF producer from that one.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Some moderate mid level goodies up here with that. Haven’t been following it enough like Will and Tip so I’ll take their word on it that it’s trending sheared and flatter.

Euro was kind of the last hold out on a major system for 2/9 last night but finally went flatter at 12z today.

Given the fast flow and multiple vortmaxima, we definitely cannot rule out a quick change back to more amplified on future guidance, but just looking at the pattern, it seems like the one behind it is probably more favorable for a larger QPF dump as the PV retrogrades west a bit.

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5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's basically because the polar jet was so suppressed it placed everywhere E of ~ 100 W and N of ~ the 35, so far in a polar bath side ...the region bounded become removed from the gradient - as a mitigating factor. It went S with it.  This opened said region to N /stream mechanics to conserve their mechanical presence in the flow, where otherwise their local speed maxima would have been absorbed by said gradient -

It's probably indirectly ( if not directly ) related to why the 130" of snow had less water content than climo

Thank you, Tip.  In saying that, does it mean that there was also no phasing among northern and southern streams?  And yes, I do remember that all of those storms produced high ratio snows.  

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How often has this sequence played out this winter's active periods?  Models show a good-looking event until inside 100 hr when it fizzles but there's another nice one coming a few days later, which then gets inside 100 and . . . Pete and re-Pete.  A couple down-sequence ones have come thru but that's been the exception.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1993-'94 TWC Local Forecast jams.

I can envision Megan and Will heading out in her car and DMX comes on. He promptly shuts that off and pops in his Rippingtons CD that he uses for a bookmark in his Kocin book and names off every song, the year it played on TWC, and at which point on the 8s it was actually played. Also, whether it was played on a short or long local forecast.

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