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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Today's 18z GFS has dropped the Kuchie snowfall up here a good 10-inches compared to yesterday's 18z run... and gave it to SE Mass.

Otherwise, most areas in between are unchanged.  Seems like a very fair trade from the NW corner to the SE corner.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_kuchera-3822400.thumb.png.afbc0618ae94292276a6c2e1db72bef7.png

Nearly doubled the total for MBY, not that I believe a bit of either one.

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Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Definitely.....I imagine you stay all snow during nearly all SWFEs?

Yes, Those overall are the best setup for here, Obviously, A coastal system we will get our biggest snows, But those are track dependent, These overunner's are pretty much a lock more times then not with the high ceiling being 6-10" with an outside shot a 12" in most cases, The look on last nights Euro would be at the high ceiling if it holds.

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14 hours ago, Bobbydoppler said:

How was it that back in Feb ‘15 we avoided suppression?  As I remember, it was cold af even with storm after storm.

It's basically because the polar jet was so suppressed it placed everywhere E of ~ 100 W and N of ~ the 35, so far in a polar bath side ...the region bounded become removed from the gradient - as a mitigating factor. It went S with it.  This opened said region to N /stream mechanics to conserve their mechanical presence in the flow, where otherwise their local speed maxima would have been absorbed by said gradient -

It's probably indirectly ( if not directly ) related to why the 130" of snow had less water content than climo

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Decided to move this over here ...

I would definitely pump the breaks on that Tuesday night Euro's amplitude ideas ...

Multiple deterministic no-no's come to light regarding that, ranging from poor model continuity ... to known biases beyond ~ 4.5 days with the oper. version tending to over carve troughs it passes E of the Divide when heading into D5 - that Tuesday aspect is precisely fitting that... 

If it holds this 12z, and other guidance move concertedly and coherently as such .. I'll nod.  Until then, I ^_^

I am aware that there was some 9th sort of spacial temporal concern to go along with this 7th ... and that the wave space is probably real.

There's also been some confusion - for me personally ... - because these features have been moving around in timing .. making it somewhat difficult in a buckshot unmanned fire hose flow construct whether we are really focusing on the same features. 

Be that as it may, this thing in the Euro may in fact be the 9th system .. re-positioned yet again in space and time on the 10th.  It would be more likely to me that if there is a 10th event its flatter in character ; not really curling 12 height lines around very little mechanical power feeding into the western OV from upstream.... Out of almost nowhere when you look at the the D4 and extrapolate - the Euro just does that ..right at that temporal seam: it imposes a correction that 're-sets' amplitude usually toward more -

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