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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Look at that meridional pattern near the end of the run :lol:

image.png.00aff7b1703084830e661b1c9bc4914b.png

That is the most f'ed up fercockta hemisphere I think I've ever seen.   If there's ever needed an example to elucidate what is meant by PV "breaking down" that's certainly gotta be on the short list of candidates to use...

 

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BOX not really impressed with the temps next week at this point...  cold but nothing outrageous.

Appears that high pressure builds back in on Wednesday and there
could potentially be arctic air over the region, but there is a lot
of spread between the operational guidance in 850 hPa cold air
moving in. The CMC is currently the quickest bringing the arctic air
in for Wednesday, but the ECMWF/GFS/GFSv16 and ICON don`t push the
coldest air in until late week. Still sticking with the NBM guidance
given the differences. This features highs in the 20s to 30s for
Wednesday.

 

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30 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX not really impressed with the temps next week at this point...  cold but nothing outrageous.


Appears that high pressure builds back in on Wednesday and there
could potentially be arctic air over the region, but there is a lot
of spread between the operational guidance in 850 hPa cold air
moving in. The CMC is currently the quickest bringing the arctic air
in for Wednesday, but the ECMWF/GFS/GFSv16 and ICON don`t push the
coldest air in until late week. Still sticking with the NBM guidance
given the differences. This features highs in the 20s to 30s for
Wednesday.

 

Goood -

indirectly ... that would be a good thing.  Cold tends to be the case when a pattern is too aggressively suppressed. Whenever we get that SPV elephant's ass hanging over us across S-SE Canada we're going to be dealing with some of that - it's a matter of to what degree ( pun deliberate to annoy you ..)  and cold usually means the ambient baroclinic zone - I know I know ...big words get annoying but sorry that's what its f'n called - is well south of us ...

...where they get all the fun ice storms and overrunning smears while we smoke cirrus and sting our knuckles on stiff door handles

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is pretty decent looking for the 2/9 threat

....

mthk_f138_bg_US.png

image.png.75e1161e90933289a4a6f4b53a8a25fe.png

 

??

...in any case, it is - but I'm wondering ... the flow is fast, but does that mean the atmosphere "recovers" equally as quickly ?

I mean, I realize you're just posting what it shows, but .. let's say the 7th gets even a more prominent as an event, it will sweep the b-c zone well S-E and probably that 9th then gets dealt a disservice - so to speak.  We may be looking at lock-in-step trade off, where we want the EPS mean to get NW more ...and if/when she does, she'll show less for the 9th ??

Wouldn't be an issue if we weren't talking two distinct events at less than 48 hour window... 

That said, wasn't the 1996 Dec double-trouble event like this?  I'm not claiming analog or nothin' - that was unusually short turn around.  So we know under the right circumstance we can't work it out.    That'd be amazing - holy shit... cuz, we had like 4-6" off a regional positive bust, then 10 to 16" 30 hours later...   Preeeety sure we're heading into Sunday with 80% of present snow pack in tact -

That would be almost comical - 5 weeks of maddening nothing over a bare ground, then we're sitting 30" on the level boom

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21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

image.png.75e1161e90933289a4a6f4b53a8a25fe.png

 

??

...in any case, it is - but I'm wondering ... the flow is fast, but does that mean the atmosphere "recovers" equally as quickly ?

I mean, I realize you're just posting what it shows, but .. let's say the 7th gets even a more prominent as an event, it will sweep the b-c zone well S-E and probably that 9th then gets dealt a disservice - so to speak.  We may be looking at lock-in-step trade off, where we want the EPS mean to get NW more ...and if/when she does, she'll show less for the 9th ??

Wouldn't be an issue if we weren't talking two distinct events at less than 48 hour window... 

That said, wasn't the 1996 Dec double-trouble event like this?  I'm not claiming analog or nothin' - that was unusually short turn around.  So we know under the right circumstance we can't work it out.    That'd be amazing - holy shit... cuz, we had like 4-6" off a regional positive bust, then 10 to 16" 30 hours later...   Preeeety sure we're heading into Sunday with 80% of present snow pack in tact -

That would be almost comical - 5 weeks of maddening nothing over a bare ground, then we're sitting 30" on the level boom

Lol, I hot linked the 2nd image by accident....should be fixed now.

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

As I  was arriving in Nicaragua for a humanitarian medical delegation I noted BOS was sub zero.  Their low was -9....coldest day in 59 years I thnk.

It certainly was. The entire region's peach crop failed (including the tree IMBY, although it had a mast year in 2017).

And it 54 and raining two days later … let's not do that.

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Mm... I think of Feb as a cold wash at this point..

It probably has ever diminishing hemispheric cold returns by way of subsequent blocking just getting weaker over time... until we 'end up' climbed out more so then lurch.

I've noted over the years of these SSWs that when they did in fact become exertion events/coupled strat/trop interfacing and blocking, PV breaks down ...initiates mid troposphere height rise ... ( ooph sorry there) that it doesn't like .. ever end on a dime.  It dwindles...torturously slowly some years.  Particularly if it's an SSW and subsequent AO response all bundled up in February proper ... May as well cash out on any summer hope until July! 

But this year was early January.   Since its ever apparently proving a coupled variant post propagation and all that junk ..we can tentatively go ahead and assume this nadir,

image.png.896959d9a306881e516edb3a5dfb75bb.png

...is re-surge related, and that those ending members (subtended right) are too quick to run that out to neutral... My guess is those correct more toward some hillier climb out...  We'll see.  But I "think" with the La Nina in constructive interference with HC, when this exertion attenuates we may cross a threshold and go warm in March.

Y'all know me, I'd love an 80 F March and early green-up... but, I'm not going to sacrifice objectivity for personal druthers - that's got me in too much trouble with woman and I'm not about to give the same proxy over my soul to the wicket bitch in the sky

 

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7 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Agree 100%. Just to be clear, i said "in the cards"...def not my forecast or what im expecting atm. We're going in the right direction today and thats what matters right now.

I'm becoming a real fan of the GFS16 this winter (Dec 16-17, Feb 1-2) and looking back at the past 4 runs or so its had the least dramatic swings at the sfc and H5 from other models ive seen.

(Real quick plug, im working on updating the season-to-date snowfall map in CT, so this is for anyone who hasnt updated their new england snow page @Damage In Tolland @tavwtby @CT Valley Snowman @RUNNAWAYICEBERG @metagraphica @H2Otown_WX that would be very helpful to get it done. ty)

will be doing that in the next day or so, I been so busy with work I forget, but do keep my records so should not take long.

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23 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Your post made me look and find a new high for the Kuchie snowfall map :weenie:.  64.3” at MVL is laughable entertainment but still almost 3” frozen water that run.

That is one active parade of events.

55246D1E-C79F-4BB7-944D-9C7FD5F1881E.thumb.png.0a08bbd88a9f7ab28426394db4de4eb6.png

 

Today's 18z GFS has dropped the Kuchie snowfall up here a good 10-inches compared to yesterday's 18z run... and gave it to SE Mass.

Otherwise, most areas in between are unchanged.  Seems like a very fair trade from the NW corner to the SE corner.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_kuchera-3822400.thumb.png.afbc0618ae94292276a6c2e1db72bef7.png

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today's 18z GFS has dropped the Kuchie snowfall up here a good 10-inches compared to yesterday's 18z run... and gave it to SE Mass.

Otherwise, most areas in between are unchanged.  Seems like a very fair trade from the NW corner to the SE corner.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_kuchera-3822400.thumb.png.afbc0618ae94292276a6c2e1db72bef7.png

Not quite fair but we’re getting there lol

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today's 18z GFS has dropped the Kuchie snowfall up here a good 10-inches compared to yesterday's 18z run... and gave it to SE Mass.

Otherwise, most areas in between are unchanged.  Seems like a very fair trade from the NW corner to the SE corner.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_kuchera-3822400.thumb.png.afbc0618ae94292276a6c2e1db72bef7.png

Your loss was my gain...........:lol:

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