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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I wish you would make a thread already (for the 7th)

Well ...it was originally the 8th ...

I'm not sure we are really tracking the same feature frankly -

I admitted that in a few morning snark intoned posts  - ...

I'm trying to wend this 7th system back in time vs modeling ...and I'm not sure it is even the same thing.   I don't presently think it is?  It is possible it has just been moved up 24 hours in time, owing to a very fast flow - it's part of the uncertainty manifold of this sort of compression shit ( god I fuggin hate it too - )

Anyway, I think if the Euro bangs the NW trend drum at 12z, that is pragmatically entering the Euro's very high verification scoring window ( being < 4.5 days out...etc) - sure.. I suspect the trend - if I'm gathering this right - started on the 06z FOR THE 7TH ...  ? lol

I just think in honesty, if I had started a thread two days ago for the 8th.... I wouldn't be sure this wasn't a separate manifestation out of the ether of an inherently "uncertainty-rich" pattern

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ...it was originally the 8th ...

I'm not sure we are really tracking the same feature frankly -

I admitted that in some many snark intoned posts  - ...

I'm trying to wend this 7th system back in time vs modeling ...and I'm not sure it is even the same thing.   I don't presently think it is?  It is possible it has just been moved up 24 hours in time, owing to a very fast flow - it's part of the uncertainty manifold of this sort of compression shit ( god I fuggin hate it too - )

Anyway, I think if the Euro bangs the NW trend drum at 12z, that is pragmatically entering the Euro's very high verification scoring window ( being < 4.5 days out...etc) - sure.. I suspect the trend - if I'm gathering this right - started on the 06z FOR THE 7TH ...  ? lol

I just think in honesty, if I had started a thread two days ago for the 8th.... I wouldn't be sure this wasn't a separate manifestation out of the ether of an inherently "uncertainty-rich" pattern

It's the same system. Euro originally had it for Sunday night maybe into very early Monday morning. It is basically just sped up 8-12 hours on the current reincarnation.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's the same system. Euro originally had it for Sunday night maybe into very early Monday morning. It is basically just sped up 8-12 hours on the current reincarnation.

Yup ..I just found the evidence for that ...

This is looking like the old bate-in-switch two-step routine in the guidance.  You know... mid range drops it .. focuses on the wrong thing for couple few cycles ( like the 00z Euro? - which I'm still a little confused about that one ).  Only to have the 8th return -

 

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49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This reminds me of that Xmas Day storm or a day after maybe 15 years ago or so when the GFS and NAM caught it coming back first . Everything else followed . You know the one I mean . May have timeframe screwed up . But this same thing happened 

Lol are you talking Boxing Day the 26th in ‘10?  

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28 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

4 seasons gets the thread. broke off

 

 

Ah .. ran for an errand - glad someone did !    :thumbsup:

...talked about firing one up two days ago, but really ...the models and even individual members were buck-shot and usually lacking a coherent consensus, while also not having indicators/Tele support .. are all red-flags. 

It seems fitting that as this comes back there's bit more coherency surrounding the 7th - it lends to formulation of consensus

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19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol are you talking Boxing Day the 26th in ‘10?  

It might be that one. It was a storm progged to hit.. then everything lost it OTS. Then the morning NAM and GFS brought it like 400 miles NW. I remember I was at my dads out in New Milford, texting Scooter from the bathroom asking for updates 

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