ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Off topic, but wonder if the GFS offspring is running a little cold. It did last storm for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It did last storm for sure. Yeah It has heavy snow pretty far offshore on the depiction for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I wish you would make a thread already (for the 7th) Well ...it was originally the 8th ... I'm not sure we are really tracking the same feature frankly - I admitted that in a few morning snark intoned posts - ... I'm trying to wend this 7th system back in time vs modeling ...and I'm not sure it is even the same thing. I don't presently think it is? It is possible it has just been moved up 24 hours in time, owing to a very fast flow - it's part of the uncertainty manifold of this sort of compression shit ( god I fuggin hate it too - ) Anyway, I think if the Euro bangs the NW trend drum at 12z, that is pragmatically entering the Euro's very high verification scoring window ( being < 4.5 days out...etc) - sure.. I suspect the trend - if I'm gathering this right - started on the 06z FOR THE 7TH ... ? lol I just think in honesty, if I had started a thread two days ago for the 8th.... I wouldn't be sure this wasn't a separate manifestation out of the ether of an inherently "uncertainty-rich" pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah It has heavy snow pretty far offshore on the depiction for Sunday. Yeah sell that...its def cold enough in SE MA, but I'm not sure I buy ACK over to George's bank getting smoked like that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well ...it was originally the 8th ... I'm not sure we are really tracking the same feature frankly - I admitted that in some many snark intoned posts - ... I'm trying to wend this 7th system back in time vs modeling ...and I'm not sure it is even the same thing. I don't presently think it is? It is possible it has just been moved up 24 hours in time, owing to a very fast flow - it's part of the uncertainty manifold of this sort of compression shit ( god I fuggin hate it too - ) Anyway, I think if the Euro bangs the NW trend drum at 12z, that is pragmatically entering the Euro's very high verification scoring window ( being < 4.5 days out...etc) - sure.. I suspect the trend - if I'm gathering this right - started on the 06z FOR THE 7TH ... ? lol I just think in honesty, if I had started a thread two days ago for the 8th.... I wouldn't be sure this wasn't a separate manifestation out of the ether of an inherently "uncertainty-rich" pattern It's the same system. Euro originally had it for Sunday night maybe into very early Monday morning. It is basically just sped up 8-12 hours on the current reincarnation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 At this point I will take 2-4 and be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Canadian a whiff but did move west by a good amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Nice 12z trends thus far fellas, let’s see what the Dr has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 GGEM, Usually will follow the RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z looks interesting so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's the same system. Euro originally had it for Sunday night maybe into very early Monday morning. It is basically just sped up 8-12 hours on the current reincarnation. Yup ..I just found the evidence for that ... This is looking like the old bate-in-switch two-step routine in the guidance. You know... mid range drops it .. focuses on the wrong thing for couple few cycles ( like the 00z Euro? - which I'm still a little confused about that one ). Only to have the 8th return - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Big boy on the 13th. Ray probably enjoying thunder from down under at Vegas that day. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Amped up GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Off topic, but wonder if the GFS offspring is running a little cold. All the literature I've seen says they "improved" the cold bias, but it doesn't mean it's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, OceanStWx said: All the literature I've seen says they "improved" the cold bias, but it doesn't mean it's gone. "not as cold" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z GGEM liked the 9th though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Nice tick NW on the GFS16. Good to see the H5 SW sharper and dig a little deeper. Stronger SLP. Overall system looks a lot healthier run-to-run. We take. ..... Can I use this for a thread ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Nice storm next weekend on the gfs and then the brutally cold air comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Big boy on the 13th. Ray probably enjoying thunder from down under at Vegas that day. Juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: Sizeable left-leaning group on the GEFS: This could give people like scooter southcoastma and others who have missed out some good snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 seasons gets the thread. broke off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This reminds me of that Xmas Day storm or a day after maybe 15 years ago or so when the GFS and NAM caught it coming back first . Everything else followed . You know the one I mean . May have timeframe screwed up . But this same thing happened Lol are you talking Boxing Day the 26th in ‘10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 28 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 4 seasons gets the thread. broke off Ah .. ran for an errand - glad someone did ! ...talked about firing one up two days ago, but really ...the models and even individual members were buck-shot and usually lacking a coherent consensus, while also not having indicators/Tele support .. are all red-flags. It seems fitting that as this comes back there's bit more coherency surrounding the 7th - it lends to formulation of consensus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 4 seasons gets the thread. broke off yay. its about that time. hopefully its GL... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Amped up GEFS Fire up the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Lol are you talking Boxing Day the 26th in ‘10? It might be that one. It was a storm progged to hit.. then everything lost it OTS. Then the morning NAM and GFS brought it like 400 miles NW. I remember I was at my dads out in New Milford, texting Scooter from the bathroom asking for updates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: yay. its about that time. hopefully its GL... We won't tell you what happens if its not good luck, But we haven't heard from those posters since there failed threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: We won't tell you what happens if its not good luck, But we haven't heard from those posters since there failed threads. RIP Corey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It might be that one. It was a storm progged to hit.. then everything lost it OTS. Then the morning NAM and GFS brought it like 400 miles NW. I remember I was at my dads out in New Milford, texting Scooter from the bathroom asking for updates Wide stance? Toe tapping? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: Wide stance? Toe tapping? George Michael playing in background? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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