dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: You were posting from a snowmobile at speed and made a mistake. Just fess up man! That will be Saturday, I may only be able to sneak some peaks at a lunch break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol....you are technically correct. It didn't help us at 12z. Didn't hurt us either though....at least not yet. Ha, Funny, But its a hit or miss model too, I looked at it several runs on the last one and it had some wild swings with the placement of the SLP and where it was tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Ha, Funny, But its a hit or miss model too, I looked at it several runs on the last one and it had some wild swings with the placement of the SLP and where it was tracking. i tend to think of it like the Global NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: i tend to think of it like the Global NAM Plus the RGEM ,GGEM and to some extent the Ukie as far as being unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 GFS looks like it is going to be west of 06z just looking at 36 hours out west for 2/7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 You guys are spending waaaaay too much time philosophizing the NAM lol So it's not even the 8th ... it's the 7th now... okay - was the 7th on the 06z Euro then?? Let's get this "bent" more than it is already: the last two days, we've focused on the 7th, the 8th, 9th and 10th ... while I - of course - bloviated to an empty room over the 11th through the 15th, all over a-b-c-d-?E? events happening in x-y-z/ 2.5 day-span time intervals... Jesus, we don't need a Sven diagram for this cluster f, we need a new General Theory of Relativity 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS looks like it is going to be west of 06z just looking at 36 hours out west for 2/7. Digging a bit, Heights higher over New England out ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: You guys are spending waaaaay too much time philosophizing the NAM lol Did you just say this? 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GFS looks like it is going to be west of 06z just looking at 36 hours out west for 2/7. Nice diffluence ahead of the digging s/w should do the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 This will be a few tics NW of the 06z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Did you just say this? He's having trouble keeping up this morning because every time he gets ready to hit submit on a 1,000 word reply 3 pages of posts have gone by. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Cape scraper lighter snow SE MA, Better and a trend going in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Kind of a needle threader here. No real high, but decent antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 looks very similar so far (78) which is a win to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Better than 06z GFS but not at NAM levels....the GFS gets SE MA/RI pretty good though on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Okay ... did anyone mention that the 06z ICON actually had a low end warning snow for everyone save James ( supplying justice to the cosmos even ...) ? For the 7th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 A tic NW. Not huge, but the GFS was already pretty close. Plenty of time at 80 hours out to get it closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Did you just say this? just trying to make sure people are paying attention LOL 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Better than 06z GFS but not at NAM levels....the GFS gets SE MA/RI pretty good though on this run. A couple more moves like this will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Perfect. We always want the gfs se until the storm is over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I wouldn't expect the GFS to be at the Nam level after its last performance, It caught on about 12hrs out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 No .. you guys are bargaining to make the NAM right - difference ... but okay, Scott brilliantly evasive tactic using humor is understood. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 This reminds me of that Xmas Day storm or a day after maybe 15 years ago or so when the GFS and NAM caught it coming back first . Everything else followed . You know the one I mean . May have timeframe screwed up . But this same thing happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Okay ... did anyone mention that the 06z ICON actually had a low end warning snow for everyone save James ( supplying justice to the cosmos even ...) ? For the 7th I wish you would make a thread already (for the 7th) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12z ICON looks like the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 v16 looked better then its brother by a tic or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: v16 looked better then its brother by a tic or two. Drops 1/2"+ here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Nice bump on V16...that's prob high end avisory or low end warning snows for the SE folks in the PYM to UUU belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Truth is ... no model should ultimately be totally ignored - I'm just bustin' ballz I know there's 'need' for lack of better word to engage in the modeling ...almost like going to an art show, when and where those that engage in fantastic works of art ... get an emotional response there too. It's sought - I get it... But in the practical sense, as I have said in the past .. these models do not arrive at a given solution that "can't" happen? Perhaps less than likely, and their physics may be missing something that makes them prone to solutions that just don't go on to verify ( ha! Like, the prescient line of sight into the intentions of God ).. But, their solutions are not IMpossible. How's that for bargaining - ignore the oppressive reality of very low probability in lieu of rationalism - nice That said, here's my crazy "unlikely" contribution to the morning's gallery .. . the 06z ICON painting of 6-10" of flat wave silk ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Off topic, but wonder if the GFS offspring is running a little cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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