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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like that this the zonked NAM run that mocks the ARW.

I don't know...I've seen the NAM often be the canary in the coal mine with storms at this point, and be the first to show a big shift.  It seems this pattern is one where a number of the mets and serious hobbyists like yourself, have said that big shifts will happen quickly as more data is assimilated.  Not every time, but it happens a lot.  I guess we'll see where we are by about 1pm.

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I don't know...I've seen the NAM often be the canary in the coal mine with storms at this point, and be the first to show a big shift.  It seems this pattern is one where a number of the mets and serious hobbyists like yourself, have said that big shifts will happen quickly as more data is assimilated.  Not every time, but it happens a lot.  I guess we'll see where we are by about 1pm.

Hoping for a rocking 12z suite. This forum is kinda depressing when the SNE crew is down in the dumps. :( 

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I wish we could adapt a rule/policy that all references to specific events must include a date said event in question is referring ... If the post does not contain a date it's content is intending to hone .. it gets torn up shredded in an anime where the posts material is destroyed right before the poster's eyes. 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

The RGEM is one of the easiest models to hug when it looks good and toss when it looks bad without giving it a second thought. The thing is just that versatile.

It definitely is "The Ukie of shorter term models". It loves to have some weird solutions and isn't afraid to make big swings. I do like it inside of about 24-36 hours though....it actually did a half-decent job identifying that Maine/NH resurgence in the snow in the last event. It was a little bonkers otu at 48 hours, but more reasonable inside of 30h.

But I'm definitely not too worried about what it is doing at 78 or 84 hours.

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

The RGEM is one of the easiest models to hug when it looks good and toss when it looks bad without giving it a second thought. The thing is just that versatile.

I put very little stock in it and it's big brother. Mostly will just check it for trends or to look for any consensus across models.

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19 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Feel like the NAM has 1 more NW jog in it and maybe squeeze a little more QPF out of the atmosphere.

I assume we mean Sunday evening in coverage here -

I was thinking when I looked at the last three cycle -trend of the NAM, that this smacks pretty painfully as the typical NAM-o-rama-ding-dong circus clown act of popping the low deeper and ominously NW like frames in a movie, clicked along in three or four short cycles.  You know...go to bed, wake enabled.  Lol. 

I mused internally, '..This may even do this one more run and get even more impressive, before boom boom boom three cycle trend goes half way back to the original nothing...'    And what we end up with is a flat wave of 1/3 potency overall, tickling LI/S RI and the Cape with light snow... towing along an angry bevy of blue-balled storm neurotics

It's not a declarative forecast lol... I just have the experience - ... the NAM between 48 and 60 hours back in the day, almost always had a NW position bias... Now, granted...we are out there in the 72 hour frame, but... I'm not sure if the former has ever been addressed when they increased it's range to 84 hours 10 .. 15 years ago whenever that happened.  I may have a bias against it for those early years - sure... 

Will's right - the NAM is not alone though...  I am not dim or stubborn to that notion. So I guess ... grudgingly, we have table the notion -

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