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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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1 minute ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

Have the players involved in what might occur on Sunday entered into better data sampling zones?  I know a few days ago one of the mets posted that it would be a couple of days until the ingredients hit better data regions.

Yes they have, but still not great...our northern arctic vortmax has come onshore in AK from the Chukchi sea and the "southern stream" (which is really the PJ piece) is still south of the eastern Aleutians, but that's a better area than it was before.

However, there's many more variables in here that may not be figured out until closer....the blocking to the north of the PV is one....the handling of the PV itself is another with all those spokes of energy rotating around it and stretching it in various directions. A lot of that stuff is in relatively poor data regions and will stay like that. In my experience, I've found that models tend to handle winter threats a lot worse when we're in this sort of fast flow Nina pattern but with blocking up north causing a meridional flow.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I wouldn't go balls deep like Pope, Kevin, and Dylan quite yet. I mean there was positivity this morning but we need some consistency.

Agree 100%. Just to be clear, i said "in the cards"...def not my forecast or what im expecting atm. We're going in the right direction today and thats what matters right now.

I'm becoming a real fan of the GFS16 this winter (Dec 16-17, Feb 1-2) and looking back at the past 4 runs or so its had the least dramatic swings at the sfc and H5 from other models ive seen.

(Real quick plug, im working on updating the season-to-date snowfall map in CT, so this is for anyone who hasnt updated their new england snow page @Damage In Tolland @tavwtby @CT Valley Snowman @RUNNAWAYICEBERG @metagraphica @H2Otown_WX that would be very helpful to get it done. ty)

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3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Watch this thing trend so far north and west most of SNE ends up raining and it's congrats NNE...nice to see the cutter idea sort of go away next week, hopefully some snow instead of just cold and dry

Our pack isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. We’ll have some warmish small events but other than that...I see a good month ahead from a pack and storm perspective.

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6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Agree 100%. Just to be clear, i said "in the cards"...def not my forecast or what im expecting atm. We're going in the right direction today and thats what matters right now.

I'm becoming a real fan of the GFS16 this winter (Dec 16-17, Feb 1-2) and looking back at the past 4 runs or so its had the least dramatic swings at the sfc and H5 from other models ive seen.

(Real quick plug, im working on updating the season-to-date snowfall map in CT, so this is for anyone who hasnt updated their new england snow page @Damage In Tolland @tavwtby @CT Valley Snowman @RUNNAWAYICEBERG @metagraphica @H2Otown_WX that would be very helpful to get it done. ty)

Done. 32.2” YTD

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

6z Euro op about to make a big change.

 

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro with a big jump NW. Game on.

I'd be waiting to see what 12z has before pitching a tent, I've seen this movie over and over with the 06z and 18z Euro runs, If 12z comes in looking good then yeah.

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27 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

(Real quick plug, im working on updating the season-to-date snowfall map in CT, so this is for anyone who hasnt updated their new england snow page @Damage In Tolland @tavwtby @CT Valley Snowman @RUNNAWAYICEBERG @metagraphica @H2Otown_WX that would be very helpful to get it done. ty)

Updated with 1/27 and 2/1 totals.  28.6" for the season. Not bad at all compared to my average.

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