Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 I wouldn't go balls deep like Pope, Kevin, and Dylan quite yet. I mean there was positivity this morning but we need some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Have the players involved in what might occur on Sunday entered into better data sampling zones? I know a few days ago one of the mets posted that it would be a couple of days until the ingredients hit better data regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not necessarily mutually exclusive. It's definitely moving fast. Would limit it quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Let’s see if we can get more than a few ensemble members on board before really taking this seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Connecticut Appleman said: Have the players involved in what might occur on Sunday entered into better data sampling zones? I know a few days ago one of the mets posted that it would be a couple of days until the ingredients hit better data regions. Yes they have, but still not great...our northern arctic vortmax has come onshore in AK from the Chukchi sea and the "southern stream" (which is really the PJ piece) is still south of the eastern Aleutians, but that's a better area than it was before. However, there's many more variables in here that may not be figured out until closer....the blocking to the north of the PV is one....the handling of the PV itself is another with all those spokes of energy rotating around it and stretching it in various directions. A lot of that stuff is in relatively poor data regions and will stay like that. In my experience, I've found that models tend to handle winter threats a lot worse when we're in this sort of fast flow Nina pattern but with blocking up north causing a meridional flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Watch this thing trend so far north and west most of SNE ends up raining and it's congrats NNE...nice to see the cutter idea sort of go away next week, hopefully some snow instead of just cold and dry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I wouldn't go balls deep like Pope, Kevin, and Dylan quite yet. I mean there was positivity this morning but we need some consistency. Agree 100%. Just to be clear, i said "in the cards"...def not my forecast or what im expecting atm. We're going in the right direction today and thats what matters right now. I'm becoming a real fan of the GFS16 this winter (Dec 16-17, Feb 1-2) and looking back at the past 4 runs or so its had the least dramatic swings at the sfc and H5 from other models ive seen. (Real quick plug, im working on updating the season-to-date snowfall map in CT, so this is for anyone who hasnt updated their new england snow page @Damage In Tolland @tavwtby @CT Valley Snowman @RUNNAWAYICEBERG @metagraphica @H2Otown_WX that would be very helpful to get it done. ty) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Watch this thing trend so far north and west most of SNE ends up raining and it's congrats NNE...nice to see the cutter idea sort of go away next week, hopefully some snow instead of just cold and dry Our pack isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. We’ll have some warmish small events but other than that...I see a good month ahead from a pack and storm perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 On 2/2/2021 at 11:11 AM, Damage In Tolland said: +12.3” 41.4” YTD @The 4 Seasons 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Agree 100%. Just to be clear, i said "in the cards"...def not my forecast or what im expecting atm. We're going in the right direction today and thats what matters right now. I'm becoming a real fan of the GFS16 this winter (Dec 16-17, Feb 1-2) and looking back at the past 4 runs or so its had the least dramatic swings at the sfc and H5 from other models ive seen. (Real quick plug, im working on updating the season-to-date snowfall map in CT, so this is for anyone who hasnt updated their new england snow page @Damage In Tolland @tavwtby @CT Valley Snowman @RUNNAWAYICEBERG @metagraphica @H2Otown_WX that would be very helpful to get it done. ty) Done. 32.2” YTD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's definitely moving fast. Would limit it quite a bit. I haven't even looked at, but if everything comes together, you can pull 6-12" in 6 hours. I don't feel like it will be much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 You can tell 12z NAM will be significantly more amped than 06z just looking out west already at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: @The 4 Seasons probably the highest in CT. Maybe Union a bit higher with that 10" amount from Dec 5th but we have no reliable reporting from up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You can tell 12z NAM will be significantly more amped than 06z just looking out west already at 36 hours. Yep just posted a gif on our Philly forum. This will be a much better run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I haven't even looked at, but if everything comes together, you can pull 6-12" in 6 hours. I don't feel like it will be much. Yeah definitely. I meant more like widespread 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah definitely. I meant more like widespread 12+. That's tough, but you get a 6 hr stretch like we did Monday night, and you still can go over a foot. Of course, something that progressive is less likely to have those dynamics.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 If this still looks good at 12Z I nominate the Pope to start the thread. Only good juju can come from the return of our long lost great Pope !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Edit: posted below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: 6z Euro op about to make a big change. 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro with a big jump NW. Game on. I'd be waiting to see what 12z has before pitching a tent, I've seen this movie over and over with the 06z and 18z Euro runs, If 12z comes in looking good then yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 36” on the season @The 4 Seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: probably the highest in CT. Maybe Union a bit higher with that 10" amount from Dec 5th but we have no reliable reporting from up there. NW CT def has more . Union does too. They had 10” I think I that Dec 5 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'd be waiting to see what 12z has before pitching a tent, I've seen this movie over and over with the 06z and 18z Euro runs, If 12z comes in looking good then yeah. Yea. No tent here yet, just a bump out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I mean its another piece of guidance =) No, it really isn't "guidance" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 58 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Drink every time someone says Miller B? Ant has an infatuation with the term, I bet he repeats it in his sleep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: Ant has an infatuation with the term, I bet he repeats it in his sleep. I bet he yells Miller B as he beats up suspects. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: probably the highest in CT. Maybe Union a bit higher with that 10" amount from Dec 5th but we have no reliable reporting from up there. 24.5" I have some work to do. ORH curb stomping me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 27 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: (Real quick plug, im working on updating the season-to-date snowfall map in CT, so this is for anyone who hasnt updated their new england snow page @Damage In Tolland @tavwtby @CT Valley Snowman @RUNNAWAYICEBERG @metagraphica @H2Otown_WX that would be very helpful to get it done. ty) Updated with 1/27 and 2/1 totals. 28.6" for the season. Not bad at all compared to my average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 That a sharp difference on the 12z Nam on the H5 map compared to the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 phase you bastahd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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