RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Some changes afoot at 6 Z. GFS ICON bringing snow 9th 10th. Euro is a big miss at 0Z. Maybe the euro originally sniffed this out but then walked away to see if others could find it themselves. It did trend se with feb1-3 around this lead time as well before trending all the back. Banking on the icon/gfs isn’t exactly ideal lol but we’ve seen stranger things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Steady snow. Dropped to 30F. Coating all surfaces. Big fat dendrites too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Maybe the euro originally sniffed this out but then walked away to see if others could find it themselves. It did trend se with feb1-3 around this lead time as well before trending all the back. Banking on the icon/gfs isn’t exactly ideal lol but we’ve seen stranger things happen. Interesting GEFS. We watch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Steady snow. Dropped to 30F. Coating all surfaces. Big fat dendrites too Nice burst there flurries here most of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice burst there flurries here most of the night We take! Never got back to you about browser, busy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 I posted this in NNE but ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 We’ll need 6z Euro for any hopE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Nice little 495 squall going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, wdrag said: Thursday Feb 4: 614AM topic update. Have dropped the wind event (45MPH+) and wind chill (-15 Poconos) and narrowed the date range. As many are witnessing, the modeling has been uncertain but always the ensembles have suggested a little bit of snow Sunday. Individual model operational cycles have tended to be nil (exception EC and V16 robust early on) until the 06z/4 GFS V15 and 16. The 06z GEFS has developed an 850MB LO just south of LI and increased qpf dramatically. (graphic added). Noting also other 00z/4 ensemble MINOR increases in QPF and NAEFS indications of rapidly developing low pressure as it passes southeast of our subforum Sunday night. Until the ensembles nix the event, am continuing the snow threat. The 00z/4 MEX MOS was only 14% chance of qpf Sunday, so it's difficult to be sure about an event Sunday. Ensembles suggestion and recent GFS northward trend (uncertain) in my mind require consideration of a general 1-4" snow event Sunday (may be melting on pavement on LI with marginal near freezing temps during any snow). I've kept the 9" max in there, just in case the coastal comes closer but 9" is highly unlikely. We do know it's going to be a vigorous event but its northwest proximity to our area is in doubt. Gusty north-northwest winds may follow Sunday night and it could be quite a bit colder Monday morning (near 14 NYC?) than statistical guidance suggests. No thread on the 9th-10th, if ever) until Super Bowl Sunday is better resolved. Added 06z GEFS 24 hr qpf, as well as a number of plumes for LGA , qpf, snow, 2m temps and 850 temp) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 EPS looks like the GFS op. I dunno...this will need work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks like the GFS op. I dunno...this will need work. Need a clear positive trend at 12z I think. We’re getting a bit short on time but can still bring it back if we trend it more right away. 06z NAM was closer too...brought a little light snow to far southeast areas on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Need a clear positive trend at 12z I think. We’re getting a bit short on time but can still bring it back if we trend it more right away. 06z NAM was closer too...brought a little light snow to far southeast areas on Sunday. 6z Euro op about to make a big change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I deleted my post. After looking again, it seems like a developing storm on 2/7 would help out with the cold air supply of the follow-up systems. Dragging the boundary down after it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Euro with a big jump NW. Game on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Definite improvement on 06z euro. Still a whiff but way closer now. Actually not a total whiff, it does get an inch or two of snow into the cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll need 6z Euro for any hopE Came 150 miles NW but not yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Definite improvement on 06z euro. Still a whiff but way closer now. Actually not a total whiff, it does get an inch or two of snow into the cape. 150 miles NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 It’s enough to think icon/gfs aren’t totally hitting the bong. A euro/minor league compromise of sort will make it wintry. Another inside d4 nw trend will play. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 00Z EPS wasnt great but there were a few N members in that. About 6-8 adv level or higher hits vs almost nothing on the 18Z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12Z vs. 18Z vs. 00Z EPS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 This is for the potential Sunday deal we’re taking about here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 James deserves this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Insane how that storm is coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The big one on Sunday/Monday cheers 4 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Pope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6z EPS says we have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Solid bump NW on the 6Z EPS as we expected. Good to see. Now we need this to continue at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 One thing is that this is flying along. Won't be blockbuster either way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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