Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
 Share

Recommended Posts

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That came to mind. I'm getting an itch though. Time is ticking because I feel like end of month may get milder.

I think of February as the first creak in the door as the ghost of seasonal change.  Meanwhile, protracted talcum powder bombs may be choking civility LOL but it's still out there.  The solar turns around and like I said, we're just talking a creaking here - don't get one's panties in a bunch.  August is the antithesis ... if you take all August ( February's ) in history, and compared them to the rest of those years ... the ballast will demonstrate that the corner actually turns in those months, probably well prior to anyone taking sensible notice. 

Anyway, not sure what the EPS is doing ( maybe Will's weeklies would be interesting but my snark impression is those are pretty N/S -like beyond D. . maybe 11 or so... ).

The GEFs show lingering neggie AO though.

IF IF IF this -AO is driven along by the SSW stuff ... that can plague springs with unusable  -NAO pulsing.  Spring BDs cold mist seem to occur at least excuse. 

However, this SSW --> -AO occurred earlier than spring killers of past though. When that happens in mid or late February, the ensuing spring doesn't exist... You get that gamma-winter that flips to a heat wave in the first 10 days of June; after which a cooler, dryer than normal summer with a whopper anomaly in boredom characterizes the west of the way. But in early Jan like this one... it may gestate over-with and render the spring back to a La Nina controls.  Which is ...what?  I "think" it's mild/warm in the OV/MA? 

HC is always there, too.  La Nina is would tend to constructively interfere with that ... unclear what that emergence would entail but it doesn't sound on the surface like we're heading for a wintry March. 

Maybe this should be entry post for "2021 Spring and seasonal change monitoring" 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still suggest the 11th - 15th is the next bigger ticket item...  

If the 8th comes back against the odds of that synoptic evolution ... so be it.  But there is another converged teleconnector era ... PNA rises positive during a polar index relaxation leading to the Ides

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

D6 looks like an overrunning snow/ice type threat....could morph into a Miller B, but it's certainly further north than previous threats.....makes sense as the block is further north by that point.

image.png.37fd49dd4fd55ea4a1efc8193c7bcc25.png

My area to Jeff could like that threat...especially him in Maine.

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Tip says around the 12th or 13th

Mmm ... I don't ever 'worry' about the sun angle -

I've seen blowing snow cob-web off of flat roof eaves on April 10th at 1pm in the afternoon. Sun angle at our latitude may be over-assessed as a limitation.  It's influence on modulating the environment is obvious; foliage triggering, and when the atmosphere supports a warm afternoon, it will supply the energy to get there.  The hemisphere warms that way .. and thus, supplies of cold become ever premium.   But, a cold, fresh supply of polar air under the density of a crying CCB head, wins as late as that time of year.  Shoot, just last year we witnessed virga exploded CU with snow flurries surviving the fall to the ground, while May sun was undercutting the falling shafts ...

The solar stuff I've brought up in the past, that's in deference to the nadir ending and is another discussion aspect altogether.  

It's just like everything;  folks want to have nice neat tidy boundaries that categorize aspects of nature into obeying groups of behavior but ... the lines are blurred. All it means is that it gets harder and harder to snow as the spring ages away from winter... and then in July you get 10 days when it's like 99.999999% chance of not happening ... at which point the percentages start dropping ... until January, when there is a 99.999999% chance of bi-polar flights of euphoria followed by neurotic inconsolability

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm ... I don't ever 'worry' about the sun angle -

I've seen blowing snow cob-web off of flat roof eaves on April 10th at 1pm in the afternoon. Sun angle at our latitude may be over-assessed as a limitation.  It's influence on modulating the environment is obvious; foliage triggering, and when the atmosphere supports a warm afternoon, it will supply the energy to get there.  The hemisphere warms that way .. and thus, supplies of cold become ever premium.   But, a cold, fresh supply of polar air under the density of the crying CCB head, wins as late as that time of year.  Shoot, just last year we witnessed virga exploded CU with snow flurries surviving the fall to the ground, while May sun was undercutting the falling shafts ...

The solar stuff I've brought up in the past, that's in deference to the nadir ending and is another discussion aspect altogether.  

It's just like everything;  folks want to have nice neat tidy boundaries that categorize aspects of nature into obeying groups of behavior but ... the lines are blurred. All it means is that it gets harder and harder to snow as the spring ages away from winter... and then in July you get 10 days when it's like 99.999999% chance of not happening ... at which point the percentages start dropping ... until January, when there is a 99.999999% chance of bi-polar flights of euphoria followed by neurotic inconsolability

Dude, there is no doubt you savor a few extra moments with your verbose tushy absorbing the solar irradiance from the car seat approaching the ides of Feb. Then you sit and wait for it to snow lightly during the afternoon, and struggle to adhere to the windshield in subfreezing air...sick bastard.

  • Haha 3
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...