February the climo snow month

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The worst was after 1/3/03. Going to Lowell, crossing the 128/90 interchange was like going from RDU to the Tug Hill. What a disaster.

That analog worked out great.

[Cold Miser]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The worst was after 1/3/03. Going to Lowell, crossing the 128/90 interchange was like going from RDU to the Tug Hill. What a disaster.

lololol

[OceanStWx]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, Honest to God I was dangerously content. I knew it was coming. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

If it happens again, they'll be studying the pressure mounting like they did for Mt. St. Helens.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I have been enraged that the PNS for recent storms labels the Hermit Lake Snowplot at like 3500' feet as "Gorham." I may break things over it.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That analog worked out great.

Unfortunately lol.

[CoastalWx]

Euro says forget Sunday night.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unfortunately lol.

Megan said commuting down to Walpole was pretty crazy. They had like 6-7" of slop down there while it was buried here....she said most of the difference had already happened once in Medfield. That's like 6 miles the way the crow flies from here, lol.

That area really got the shaft...usually Walpole/Foxoborough cleans up while a little to their east is suffering, but this time they didn't quite get on the right side of the gradient. They did ok, but way less than 10 miles NW of them.

[dryslot]

Time to look towards early next week.

 

[NorEastermass128]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro says forget Sunday night.

Any follow up wave potential?  We need a fix.

[SouthCoastMA]

Snap of the fingers and poof...gone

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro says forget Sunday night.

Goes nuts with that little vortmax out ahead of the main one....weird. Might produce some snow showers on Saturday night.

[dryslot]

Looks like some squalls with the front up here sunday.

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I have been enraged that the PNS for recent storms labels the Hermit Lake Snowplot at like 3500' feet as "Gorham." I may break things over it.

I'm actually not entirely sure we can change that. We can change the "detail" level for how specific a town size to mention, but it always references some direction from town center. So unless we made Hermit Lake Snowplot a "town" it finds the next closest thing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Could be a warm up second half of month, but looks like SSW will at least throw my timing off.

High Latitude Blocking Likely to Delay February  Forecast Warm up

A major premise of the seasonal forecast was that while the polar vortex would be prone to assaults early on in the season, it would ultimately recover, however, the major Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that occurred in early January proved that particular supposition incorrect. 

 

Note how diffuse and nearly indiscernible the polar vortex remains at present, as the polar stratosphere remains infiltrated with warmth.

 

 

Clearly the polar domain is still reeling from last months Sudden Stratospheric Warming, which means that, an end to the current high latitude blocking regime is not imminent. While this is in conflict with the timing of the progression laid out in the Winter Outlook, the current data is indisputable and overwhelming. However, as was the case with the development of the RNA, it may be a case of delayed, but not denied.

 

Note the recovery to at least near neutral with respect to the polar fields, as forecasted by the EPS:

 

Recovery of Polar domain and consolidation of polar vortex forecast later in February.

 

Likewise, a realignment of the Pacific is also expected to take place toward mid month, as lower heights work in tandem with RNA to induce an active Pacific jet.

 

 

 

Active Pacific Jet Expected for Especially Second Half of February

 

This evolution is well supported by the European weekly product.

 

Depicted below is the major negative NAO and EPO blocks that are expected to persist throughout the early portion of the month:

 

 

 

Note by mid month, the NAO block has weakened, and the EPO block as retrograded towards a more classic la nina position, in the vicinity of the Aleutians. The latter of which continues lower heights in the west.

 

 

 

Finally, by the final week of the month, there is a vortex in the vicinity of Alaska, which would flood the CONUS with milder Pacific air, and at least theoretically, make sustaining any residual high latitude blocking more difficult.

 

 

This is congruent with a the longer range forecast for a more consolidated polar vortex, which is more fixed near the pole.

 

 

In summary, while the month of February is certain to feature more high latitude blocking than forecast due in large part to the early January Sudden Stratospheric Warming, there remains ample opportunity for the original forecast monthly departure of +2 to +4F to verify due to anticipated second half warming. Regardless, the month does not appear to be void of opportunities for winter storms, nor was it ever anticipated to.

[SouthCoastMA]

To date this winter is worse than 11/12 down here.

Although I can't imagine it ending as bad. We'll see

We're onto 2/10?

 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Megan said commuting down to Walpole was pretty crazy. They had like 6-7" of slop down there while it was buried here....she said most of the difference had already happened once in Medfield. That's like 6 miles the way the crow flies from here, lol.

That area really got the shaft...usually Walpole/Foxoborough cleans up while a little to their east is suffering, but this time they didn't quite get on the right side of the gradient. They did ok, but way less than 10 miles NW of them.

There is a strong gradient within that too. I heard 6-8" Milton which is like 5 miles as the crow flies. Just needed to go a little west and up a couple hundred feet. Joe D from BOX had 10.6" in Norwood!

[dryslot]

I guess we can take the cutter scenario completely out for sunday...................

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

To date this winter is worse than 11/12 down here.

Although I can't imagine it ending as bad. We'll see

We're onto 2/10?

 

You guys got lucky that Jan. I was the center of the middle finger that season into early Jan 2013. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Goes nuts with that little vortmax out ahead of the main one....weird. Might produce some snow showers on Saturday night.

I saw. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You guys got lucky that Jan. I was the center of the middle finger that season into early Jan 2013. 

Yeah I had to clarify the 'to date' solely due to that storm. Luck has been missing this year, but still time. Not getting my hopes up though

[CoastalWx]

Comparing the euro op from 12z, it is way different in srn Canada. Goes to show you the volatility.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Could be a warm up second half of month, but looks like SSW will at least throw my timing off.

High Latitude Blocking Likely to Delay February  Forecast Warm up

A major premise of the seasonal forecast was that while the polar vortex would be prone to assaults early on in the season, it would ultimately recover, however, the major Sudden Stratospheric Warming event that occurred in early January proved that particular supposition incorrect. 

 

Note how diffuse and nearly indiscernible the polar vortex remains at present, as the polar stratosphere remains infiltrated with warmth.

 

 

Clearly the polar domain is still reeling from last months Sudden Stratospheric Warming, which means that, an end to the current high latitude blocking regime is not imminent. While this is in conflict with the timing of the progression laid out in the Winter Outlook, the current data is indisputable and overwhelming. However, as was the case with the development of the RNA, it may be a case of delayed, but not denied.

 

Note the recovery to at least near neutral with respect to the polar fields, as forecasted by the EPS:

 

Recovery of Polar domain and consolidation of polar vortex forecast later in February.

 

Likewise, a realignment of the Pacific is also expected to take place toward mid month, as lower heights work in tandem with RNA to induce an active Pacific jet.

 

 

 

Active Pacific Jet Expected for Especially Second Half of February

 

This evolution is well supported by the European weekly product.

 

Depicted below is the major negative NAO and EPO blocks that are expected to persist throughout the early portion of the month:

 

 

 

Note by mid month, the NAO block has weakened, and the EPO block as retrograded towards a more classic la nina position, in the vicinity of the Aleutians. The latter of which continues lower heights in the west.

 

 

 

Finally, by the final week of the month, there is a vortex in the vicinity of Alaska, which would flood the CONUS with milder Pacific air, and at least theoretically, make sustaining any residual high latitude blocking more difficult.

 

 

This is congruent with a the longer range forecast for a more consolidated polar vortex, which is more fixed near the pole.

 

 

In summary, while the month of February is certain to feature more high latitude blocking than forecast due in large part to the early January Sudden Stratospheric Warming, there remains ample opportunity for the original forecast monthly departure of +2 to +4F to verify due to anticipated second half warming. Regardless, the month does not appear to be void of opportunities for winter storms, nor was it ever anticipated to.

A warmup ?

[NorEastermass128]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

To date this winter is worse than 11/12 down here.

Although I can't imagine it ending as bad. We'll see

We're onto 2/10?

 

Same. Thank goodness for 12/17. If not for that storm, I’d be at 4.5” season to date right now. 

[dryslot]

Tuesday could be messy on the Euro.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I’m guessing I am above average to date here.  Have lucked out

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A warmup ?

Second half of month...long way out, though. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m guessing I am above average to date here.  Have lucked out

Last year too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m guessing I am above average to date here.  Have lucked out

I'm about average.

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I guess we can take the cutter scenario completely out for sunday...................

And bring it to Tuesday?