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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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Yeah agreed with others ... the pattern subtending this affair isn't really as cut -dry cutter/ EC southerly transport as it looked  - ...trends decay that.

But there's reasons to bring it back.  The expected arrival of -EPO can at times exert the down stream pattern unfavorably for winter enthusiasts - to put it nicely - at first, getting colder preceding storminess later on.  Gosh forbid anyone should have to wait, huh - 

I see a bit of a wild-card in play ...however, where the hemisphere is speeding up again.  The flow out there in that extended GFS/GEFs, ...while not necessarily true for individual features, the flow is hugely fast again - ... That speed tends to physically stress the shortened wave-length assumption...which might impede the typical/idealized -EPO model of first dropping a height nadir west, and triggering a buckle/bubble-up over the SE that precedes a cutter - this latter aspect may be pancaked and in fact these operational trends appear to be doing so anyway ...

 

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Yup ... Will and I commented on this yesterday and now these guidance gone wild with a -EPO ...  Deep deep cold loads into the Canadian shield...

Well prior to the governing larger synoptic driving any western continental, mid-latitude ridging, the cold is already spreading out with suppressed polar boundary S of 40 N...

This is creating a petri-dish of baroclinic instability, so... needless to say -

As far as Euro, I'd also watch for just a smidge of over carving in to the SW/bias therein

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9 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I think the late week cutter goes south of me, or at least the damage is minimized. Euro looks the worst right now and it's a brief shot to 35 degrees with snow on the front and back end. Very different from Grinch.

Congrats on the cold shot at the end of the gfs.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still hoping the GFS suite has the right idea on the cutter....lot of CAD sig showing up there. Euro was pretty ugly though.

Euro at least has way less rain here than Grinch. v16 would be a snow storm. Regular GFS is in between. CMC was also very little rain. Basically a frontal passage kinda deal. This thing looks way less ugly than Grinch to me, which showed no signs on the models of letting up ever. It looked like dog doo for 10 days straight. Still hundreds of hours to improve this thing further. Up here at least. You guys may be porked. 

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Just now, PhineasC said:

Euro at least has way less rain here than Grinch. v16 would be a snow storm. Regular GFS is in between. CMC was also very little rain. Basically a frontal passage kinda deal. This thing looks way less ugly than Grinch to me, which showed no signs on the models of letting up ever. It looked like dog doo for 10 days straight. Still hundreds of hours to improve this thing further. Up here at least. You guys may be porked. 

Nothing can top the grinch storm of 2020....I've onyl seen something like that maybe once or twice. The Jan 19-20, 1996 storm and maybe Jan 30-31, 2013.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For most of the country or just NE?

Looks pretty cold in the northern tier to me. We could go either way here.

From The Weather Channel Android App: https://weather.com/news/weather/video/february-temperature-outlook-released?pl=pl-the-latest

Looks like typical la Nina with a trough in the west and ridge in east. Perhaps they are believing the MJO forecast of stuck in 7?

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

From The Weather Channel Android App: https://weather.com/news/weather/video/february-temperature-outlook-released?pl=pl-the-latest

Looks like typical la Nina with a trough in the west and ridge in east. Perhaps they are believing the MJO forecast of stuck in 7?

Yeah I think that is too longitude dependent. I'd tilt that whole thing to to the right at least enough to put the great lakes BN. 

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