Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Uh ? After the cutter , we will get rolling again. Johnny Cash We walk the line And thats New England 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 I think the late week cutter goes south of me, or at least the damage is minimized. Euro looks the worst right now and it's a brief shot to 35 degrees with snow on the front and back end. Very different from Grinch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Yeah agreed with others ... the pattern subtending this affair isn't really as cut -dry cutter/ EC southerly transport as it looked - ...trends decay that. But there's reasons to bring it back. The expected arrival of -EPO can at times exert the down stream pattern unfavorably for winter enthusiasts - to put it nicely - at first, getting colder preceding storminess later on. Gosh forbid anyone should have to wait, huh - I see a bit of a wild-card in play ...however, where the hemisphere is speeding up again. The flow out there in that extended GFS/GEFs, ...while not necessarily true for individual features, the flow is hugely fast again - ... That speed tends to physically stress the shortened wave-length assumption...which might impede the typical/idealized -EPO model of first dropping a height nadir west, and triggering a buckle/bubble-up over the SE that precedes a cutter - this latter aspect may be pancaked and in fact these operational trends appear to be doing so anyway ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Latest Euro cuts way back on the cutter precip. Hope that holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 35 minutes ago, RDRY said: Latest Euro cuts way back on the cutter precip. Hope that holds. Verbatim still a period of 52/48 in EMA for a few hours which is a total pack eater, but still way out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Yup ... Will and I commented on this yesterday and now these guidance gone wild with a -EPO ... Deep deep cold loads into the Canadian shield... Well prior to the governing larger synoptic driving any western continental, mid-latitude ridging, the cold is already spreading out with suppressed polar boundary S of 40 N... This is creating a petri-dish of baroclinic instability, so... needless to say - As far as Euro, I'd also watch for just a smidge of over carving in to the SW/bias therein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Modeling definitely is moving towards squashing this south of us thankfully. Ryan has : days of 40+ and rain.. let’s watch that change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 Ill keep my eye on this one. We tend to do well out here with SWFE's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 GFS V16 really amping the CAD for the 5th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 9 hours ago, PhineasC said: I think the late week cutter goes south of me, or at least the damage is minimized. Euro looks the worst right now and it's a brief shot to 35 degrees with snow on the front and back end. Very different from Grinch. Congrats on the cold shot at the end of the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Congrats on the cold shot at the end of the gfs. Bring it on. I want to experience at least one this winter. Been lame in the temp department so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2021 Share Posted January 28, 2021 v16 gives me more snow from the "cutter" than the early week storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 On 1/26/2021 at 1:27 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Secondary is way south. Shit streak needs to lift out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Good trends on the "cutter" so far tonight. v16 forces it south of much of the area and it's weak. GFS is getting there. CMC is basically a frontal passage with some showers at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 We cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We cut. We bleed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 maybe we band-aid............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looks like after the cutter, the -NAO helps suppress the SE ridge. We pray. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like after the cutter, the -NAO helps suppress the SE ridge. We pray. Still hoping the GFS suite has the right idea on the cutter....lot of CAD sig showing up there. Euro was pretty ugly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still hoping the GFS suite has the right idea on the cutter....lot of CAD sig showing up there. Euro was pretty ugly though. That's a big cold dump, so I'm already getting ready to rip back a few White Claws on the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not that it matters but TWC went all out torch for FEBRUARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still hoping the GFS suite has the right idea on the cutter....lot of CAD sig showing up there. Euro was pretty ugly though. Euro at least has way less rain here than Grinch. v16 would be a snow storm. Regular GFS is in between. CMC was also very little rain. Basically a frontal passage kinda deal. This thing looks way less ugly than Grinch to me, which showed no signs on the models of letting up ever. It looked like dog doo for 10 days straight. Still hundreds of hours to improve this thing further. Up here at least. You guys may be porked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Not that it matters but TWC went all out torch for FEBRUARY. For most of the country or just NE? Looks pretty cold in the northern tier to me. We could go either way here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If TWC you mean WSI...I don't see it as a torch here. We look borderline, maybe we avg a little AN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Euro at least has way less rain here than Grinch. v16 would be a snow storm. Regular GFS is in between. CMC was also very little rain. Basically a frontal passage kinda deal. This thing looks way less ugly than Grinch to me, which showed no signs on the models of letting up ever. It looked like dog doo for 10 days straight. Still hundreds of hours to improve this thing further. Up here at least. You guys may be porked. Nothing can top the grinch storm of 2020....I've onyl seen something like that maybe once or twice. The Jan 19-20, 1996 storm and maybe Jan 30-31, 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: For most of the country or just NE? Looks pretty cold in the northern tier to me. We could go either way here. From The Weather Channel Android App: https://weather.com/news/weather/video/february-temperature-outlook-released?pl=pl-the-latest Looks like typical la Nina with a trough in the west and ridge in east. Perhaps they are believing the MJO forecast of stuck in 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, EastonSN+ said: From The Weather Channel Android App: https://weather.com/news/weather/video/february-temperature-outlook-released?pl=pl-the-latest Looks like typical la Nina with a trough in the west and ridge in east. Perhaps they are believing the MJO forecast of stuck in 7? Yeah I think that is too longitude dependent. I'd tilt that whole thing to to the right at least enough to put the great lakes BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think that is too longitude dependent. I'd tilt that whole thing to to the right at least enough to put the great lakes BN. Kind of look like they are expecting the SE ridge to link up with the south based NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Back into the freezer after the cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 GGEM lost the cutter....buried the energy offshore of CA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now