February the climo snow month

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That looks very strong. I always like the WSI graphics too.

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One thing you want to see on a longer range threat is strong cross-guidance ensemble support. 

Heres the EPS, GFS, and GEPS in that order:

For those who can’t handle the emotional roller coaster of failed storms, I’d suggest not checking back in until the 2nd half of this week. But this is at least a pretty strong guidance signal for a D8-9 threat. 

I think the vast majority of folks here are no longer on any roller coaster.  Rather, we're resigned to what is.  We'll take whatever might occur as a pleasant surprise in one of the worst winters evah.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What do expect him to say. It's not coming. The winter is over. I did that a few days back. Have been very disappointed with the turnout thus far. However, I also can see this pattern yielding something very very big. Just had that vibe.

Yea. Regression sucks but we’ve swung to the negative side of the spectrum so much that eventually we’re back into a positive regression phase. I’m a big believer in the rubber band theory...if there is such a thing. 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Regression sucks but we’ve swung to the negative side of the spectrum so much that eventually we’re back into a positive regression phase. I’m a big believer in the rubber band theory...if there is such a thing. 

Nature will forever fight the battle for entropy.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I’m not negative at all.  The AOATT becomes old.  Healthy doses of reality are needed.  You’ll eventually be right though as the blind squirrel gets the nut sometimes.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I’m not negative at all.  The AOATT becomes old.  Healthy doses of reality are needed.  You’ll eventually be right though as the blind squirrel gets the nut sometimes.

Lol ok Deb

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I’m not negative at all.  The AOATT becomes old.  Healthy doses of reality are needed.  You’ll eventually be right though as the blind squirrel gets the nut sometimes.

But I haven’t denied reality once (I’ve recognized the crap we are in) so what’s the problem with me injecting a little positivity in this place full of whiners?

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But I haven’t denied reality once (I’ve recognized the crap we are in) so what’s the problem with me injecting a little positivity in this place full of whiners?

I agree, now any discussion of possibilities is met by the school children whining about their lack of frozen water. I suggested they just stop posting their whines but they can not resist. And then you have people taking pot shots. Thing about the weather is, it is never static and always evolving. Its embarrassing that well educated people can not understand that 

[CoastalWx]

2010-2011 8 days away.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I agree, now any discussion of possibilities is met by the school children whining about their lack of frozen water. I suggested they just stop posting their whines but they can not resist. And then you have people taking pot shots. Thing about the weather is, it is never static and always evolving. Its embarrassing that well educated people can not understand that 

Discussion of potential is one thing, saying they are coming is another.  But you can parse the differences, right?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Discussion of potential is one thing, saying they are coming is another.  But you can parse the differences, right?

Parse this

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

2010-2011 8 days away.

  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

  

Feb ‘94?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Discussion of potential is one thing, saying they are coming is another.  But you can parse the differences, right?

All I said was that it has to come because it can’t get any worse lol. I guess that bothered you more than any other post?

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Feb ‘94?

30 inches in Feb, why not. Not that unusual 

[rclab]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Parse this

At least let Vladimir wait until the contest in Coney Island on July 4th. As always ....

[HoarfrostHubb]

Good signal at this time frame.  Something to watch at least

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

30 inches in Feb, why not. Not that unusual 

That was the Leon winter iirc. Was living in CNJ and the ice storms where insane, if I have the year correct. 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That was the Leon winter iirc. Was living in CNJ and the ice storms where insane, if I have the year correct. 

The ice storms were in Jan up here

[Baroclinic Zone]

1st it was Jan 78 coming, now it’ll be Feb 1978 incoming with the huge block.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

1st it was Jan 78 coming, now it’ll be Feb 1978 incoming with the huge block.

We science 

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We science 

And science has said we’ve lacked a solid baroclinic zone over the US for the majority of the month.  Hence the + departures over most of the US and torched over the upper plains where the majority of our cold comes from.  If this changes and we see closer to normal temps over the upper plains, this should help shove that zone further south and East.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I posted this in the tired January thread .. not realizing this one was/is active:

Multi agency PNA monitoring suggest either a mode change to modestly positive, or, a neutralization of the erstwhile negative character of that index.  ( Edit, this concerts with what Will is saying about support from different sources ...)

The NAO obolishes ..or, at least this current rendition of it - being a west based exhausted elephant that's decided to set it's ass down over eastern N/A. 

Rising PNA of any kind during an NAO block decay sends a modest Archembaultian 'correction event' vibe through the hemisphere.   This would time during the January 28 - thru about Feb 5 span of time.  I wouldn't be argumentative if anyone advanced discussion over anything in that time frame already on the charts, or in surmise ...were guessing something may emerge in the guidance.

As a quick exit point, there are semblances of the -EPO in some operational cycles that I'm seeing occasionally as of late. These may be figments of an underlying detection for the former change in the PNA ... sort of an obscure confidence that 'some'thing is trying to snap one end of the bed linen over the next 10 days.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Apology for the optimism but LFG Feb1-2. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol ok Deb

I honestly feel like even if Feb is warm, we will do at least climo snow.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly feel like even if Feb is warm, we will do at least climo snow.

All systems go on ENS

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

All systems go on ENS

I'd be stunned if we still hadn't scored a decent event after the first week of Feb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Feb ‘94?

Maybe snowfall, def not cold IMO.

[Typhoon Tip]

So much for the Feb being a lost cause ... 

That 2nd thing could amass 90% of the month's quota just getting started -

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So much for the Feb being a lost cause ... 

That 2nd thing could amass 90% of the month's quota just getting started -

Yea, I'd gladly take going 2/3 on DJF if that is the consolation.