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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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1 hour ago, Greg said:

Do you really think I'm the only weather observer that measures every 24 hours? There are many others not to mention COOPS that do this. Airports are in another a World of their own. Other weather spotters do measure every 6 hours like you do. This creates a discrepancy in storm totals. This is why there is ambiguity when it comes to snowfall measuring techniques.

No, I don't think you are the only one. However,  I think your claim that it inflates snowfalls is bullshit. What it does is help to distinguish between snow depth and snowfall.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I don't think you are the only one. However,  I think your claim that it inflates snowfalls is bullshit. What it does is help to distinguish between snow depth and snowfall.

I never said it inflates the snow by large amounts, no. 12 Hour storms, not a big deal at all to have any significance. Usually, I start to see the discrepancies at 24 Hours duration storms and beyond. Which are of course are somewhat rare in itself.

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1 minute ago, Greg said:

I never said it inflates the snow by large amounts, no. 12 Hour storms, not a big deal at all to have any significance. Usually, I start to see the discrepancies at 24 Hours duration storms and beyond. Which are of course are somewhat rare in itself.

Right. At the end of the day, we enjoy snow and are going about our own methodology for obtaining the most accurate data possible. You make sure to delineate between any melting, and total snowfall, and I'll do the same with respect to snowfall and settled depth. 

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LOL ...

In any case, there is an emerging signal for a robust cold wave/event to transpire toward the end of the first week of Feb ...materializing probably in guidance more coherently - if so - while we feast or famine through the Feb 1-3rd ordeal ...

It's a basic overview, but the MJO appears potent in guidance from multiple sourcing ( Euro/GFS/EPS/GEFs et all) through Phase 7 ... as a slow lurker but moderate wave potency in the RMM as most can easily go see/find..

But, that does correlate with the -AO ... which dun dun dunnnnn:

-- SSW timing and that particular forcing mechanism begins ...basically today.  LOL... no kidding though..timing the end of the first week of January puts day 20 mean correlation lag today. But, obviously there are no ridged rules ... but, we are seeing a renew downward mode of the AO out there between the 7th and 14th of February, as the MJO is propagating pretty potently in the RMM thru climate supportive Phase 7 and likely extrapolates into 8.  The strengthening MJO on the left side of the RMM is actually the preferred correlation with the -AO...so that part of the statistical package is clad.

What is a bit odd is that all of this sort of conflicts with the low amplitude La Nina footprint ...

Having said that, I don't give a shit... The La Nina - imho - is almost impossible to parse out its influence from the HC expansion shit which is just as real... And the MJO is bursting out of that buried state is what it is ... and if it is in Phase 7 and successfully propaging ... this all becomes yet another form of 'teleconnector convergence' perhaps enough to overpower that low amplitude baser state.  And we'd likely see a -EPO out of the concerted exertion over the total hemisphere when these get detected.  That's my lean at this time...

That's also a regime change that will replace this +PNAP ... quasi -NAO bouncing around...   New storm chance ?  It wouldn't be like this one here in the foreground - agreed.. If we get into a -EPO loading pattern, we squeeze things and herald anew a return to the velocity surplussing -

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45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

LOL ...

In any case, there is an emerging signal for a robust cold wave/event to transpire toward the end of the first week of Feb ...materializing probably in guidance more coherently - if so - while we feast or famine through the Feb 1-3rd ordeal ...

It's a basic overview, but the MJO appears potent in guidance from multiple sourcing ( Euro/GFS/EPS/GEFs et all) through Phase 7 ... as a slow lurker but moderate wave potency in the RMM as most can easily go see/find..

But, that does correlate with the -AO ... which dun dun dunnnnn:

-- SSW timing and that particular forcing mechanism begins ...basically today.  LOL... no kidding though..timing the end of the first week of January puts day 20 mean correlation lag today. But, obviously there are no ridged rules ... but, we are seeing a renew downward mode of the AO out there between the 7th and 14th of February, as the MJO is propagating pretty potently in the RMM thru climate supportive Phase 7 and likely extrapolates into 8.  The strengthening MJO on the left side of the RMM is actually the preferred correlation with the -AO...so that part of the statistical package is clad.

What is a bit odd is that all of this sort of conflicts with the low amplitude La Nina footprint ...

Having said that, I don't give a shit... The La Nina - imho - is almost impossible to parse out its influence from the HC expansion shit which is just as real... And the MJO is bursting out of that buried state is what it is ... and if it is in Phase 7 and successfully propaging ... this all becomes yet another form of 'teleconnector convergence' perhaps enough to overpower that low amplitude baser state.  And we'd likely see a -EPO out of the concerted exertion over the total hemisphere when these get detected.  That's my lean at this time...

That's also a regime change that will replace this +PNAP ... quasi -NAO bouncing around...   New storm chance ?  It wouldn't be like this one here in the foreground - agreed.. If we get into a -EPO loading pattern, we squeeze things and herald anew a return to the velocity surplussing -

I agree the -EPO signal is getting louder and louder. Euro weeklies were trying to hint at it the past couple runs, but not totally biting....however, as you hinted at in previous posts, that product probably can't really "see" the SSW consequences yet...or at least at the time they couldn't. Wouldn't be surprised if next run it shows a more robust signal for week 2 since the cross-guidance ensemble suites are all starting to show it at the end of their respective runs the last couple of days...and it's a pretty robust look too.

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15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sou’easter screamer still there day 9. Please someone offer some hope here that we can trend that east and under us?

Whats cool is there are multiple snow storm chances post cold frontal passage. Active snowy month. I remember I think in 2011 having a severe Thunderstorm with 2 feet of snow OTG . 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe overruning or late bloom potential, but every time I see these patterns we have cutter risks. I'm not saying it will be bad..hell maybe we get good luck. Just my overall thought.

Thanks. Hopefully all the talk of the weakened polar vortex keeps the NAO/AO negative. Hope MJO makes phase 8.

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