February the climo snow month

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I wasn’t here but someone should comment on the February 78 blizzard.   I think it let up but regenerated as the ULL moved through after a long capture and stall.  Don’t forget 69 amd the long duration 2015.

I don't envision that happening here...if you want to use a 1/100 yr event as an example, then tip of the cap...I concede. Even the other two....vast majority was in day 1, day two was like several inches over 12+ hrs.

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

?

ok.. is not strengthening as it heads NE

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Signal is there cool. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Relying on a lobe of vorticity to protract things is even touch and go at close leads....we see that fall apart often at 24 hrs, NVM 6 days. I just don't want to rely on that to deliver big amounts is all I am saying.

Looks good for a decent storm, though, regardless.

[Henry's Weather]

We're seeing slightly lower pressures for the indies on EPS than yesterday. Many get below 990 mb, although the majority remain above.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't envision that happening here...if you want to use a 1/100 yr event as an example, then tip of the cap...I concede. Even the other two....vast majority was in day 1, day two was like several inches over 12+ hrs.

Look at the DC region, that's how 36 hours turns into 36 inches 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

ok.. is not strengthening as it heads NE

I think it start to occlude when passing us on the EPS....so I don't think its like a Boxinx Day deal....

[Greg]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Look at the DC region, that's how 36 hours turns into 36 inches 

The higher elevation yes, DC proper, no way.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Look at the DC region, that's how 36 hours turns into 36 inches 

95% of it is down in 24 hours.

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, Greg said:

The higher elevation yes, DC proper, no way.

Yeah, DC proper might only see 36" on grassy surfaces. Meager rates there.

[Bostonseminole]

we still have a long way to go, so not locking anything, just what model shows, pretty excited to finally have something to track and that I won't see my dead grass for a few weeks I hope.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

Yeah, DC proper might only see 36" on grassy surfaces. Meager rates there.

Don't overlook the mulch piles.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This looks mainly a Tuesday deal now?

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Yeah, DC proper might only see 36" on grassy surfaces. Meager rates there.

No, I mean it. During the 2016 storm the models had DC proper in a similar situation where they reported just shy of 18" there.) But just a mere hope, skip, and jump to the west/northwest of them they got 26"-36" with elevation. Watch, you'll see.

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This looks mainly a Tuesday deal now?

A groundhog day special.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This looks mainly a Tuesday deal now?

Too early to parse out a detail like this.

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, Greg said:

No, I mean it. During the 2016 storm the models had DC proper in a similar situation where they reported just shy of 18.)"  but just a mere hope, skip, and jump to the west/northwest of them they got 26"-36" with elevation. Watch, you'll see.

Yeah, just joking. I've definitely seen that happen.

[Greg]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I finished with 22” in DC proper with that one, but I hear ya.

Always remember, it also depends on how it was measured. Use the 6 hour wipe off the board method, you get about 22". Use the COOP 24 Hour method, you get 17.8". Simple as that.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

Always remember, it also depends on how it was measured. Use the 6 hour wipe off the board method, you get about 22". Use the COOP 24 Hour method, you get 17.8". Simple as that.

Compacted or sleet  damped down, we 6 hrs for reason

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

Always remember, it also depends on how it was measured. Use the 6 hour wipe off the board method, you get about 22". Use the COOP 24 Hour method, you get 17.8". Simple as that.

How do you know how he measured it?  I always here about how the official measurements at the airports down there are a bit low.  Plus 4” of difference in a nor’easter isn’t that much when you are in that 18-24” zone.

[Greg]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Compacted or sleet  damped down, we 6 hrs for reason

Unfortunately, it inflates totals. We've all discussed this on the board many times about the two methods before. Even the KU Book corrects the data sometimes for this. Makes the data sets sort of screwy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Compacted or sleet  damped down, we 6 hrs for reason

Don't get me started lol

Agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Greg said:

Unfortunately, it inflates totals. We've all discussed this on the board many about the two methods before. Even the KU Books correct the data sometimes for this.

It does not if you want the snowfall total....if you want snow depth, it does. Simple as that. 

Why do you think road crews want to know how much will fall?? They don't have the luxury of waiting a day for the shit to settle before they plow it.

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It does not if you want the snowfall total....if you want snow depth, it does. Simple as that. 

Why do you think road crews want to know how much will fall?? They don't wait a day for the shit to settle before they plow it.

This has nothing to do with Road Crews Ray. This has to do with science/Meteorology. It's called Observing mother nature not how much a plow operator is going to get paid or manipulating the snow to see what would have been had it never settled naturally.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Every 6hrs all the way.

[Henry's Weather]

You can observe both snow depth and snow accumulation. Plow guys need snow accum. and you can do whatever you want with the depth. Both are sources of data, both are meteorologically useful. No need to pick and choose other than to be consistent with record keeping.

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

You can observe both snow depth and snow accumulation. Plow guys need snow accum. and you can do whatever you want with the depth. Both are sources of data, both are meteorologically useful. No need to pick and choose other than to be consistent with record keeping.

One problem though, they both are not one in the same, therefore not consistent. One is more natural observation, the other is more manipulative.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

This has nothing to do with Road Crews Ray. This has to do with science/Meteorology. It's called Observing mother nature not how much a plow guy is going to get paid or manipulating the snow to see what would have been had it never settled naturally.

Sure, you can observe the science and meteorology of snow depth, I'm interested in observing snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

You can observe both snow depth and snow accumulation. Plow guys need snow accum. and you can do whatever you want with the depth. Both are sources of data, both are meteorologically useful. No need to pick and choose other than to be consistent with record keeping.

Thank you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Greg said:

One problem though, They both are not consistent. One is more natural, the other is more manipulative.

How the hell do you manipulate snowfall by measuring it every six hours?? Lets stop reporting hourly obs at airports, we don't want to manipulate the thermometer...just give the temp once per day.