ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 Still a pretty impressive pack on winter hill. I was running neck and neck with them for most of February but they’ve pulled ahead. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Both morning and afternoon P&Cs from GYX offer a measly <1/2" for my area, far from the 3"+ on that map, which seems based on all snow here while the AFD says otherwise. The GYX snowfall map seems a tad bearish to me. They are overplaying the rain angle I think. The latest AFD is not inspiring, to say the least. More fog talk than anything. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 @CoastalWx @dendrite Stupid question. what level should I be looking at typically for wind direction to determine downsloping risk for here? It’s kinda complicated by the peaks in the way, sometimes the moisture flow seems more affected than other times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: @CoastalWx @dendrite Stupid question. what level should I be looking at typically for wind direction to determine downsloping risk for here? It’s kinda complicated by the peaks in the way, sometimes the moisture flow seems more affected than other times. There’s a lot that factors into it, IMO. Veering in the low levels under 850mb, speed/velocity, inversions, stability, etc. That’s why BTV studies the Froude number so much. In some events a certain wind direction at 850mb can result in a downslope, but then in another event that same wind direction seems to be pushing the moisture over the barrier so effectively it’s a QPF jackpot. Here sort of explains it... if there’s blocking then the Lee side down slopes, if it’s unblocked the Lee side actually jackpots. BTV often references it on NW flow but it goes for all wind directions... sometimes I think we do great with an east flow in a synoptic storm only to find the precip maximum ended up on the west side because it was unblocked...likewise sometimes we jackpot in NW upslope on the east side. It’s not as simple as just looking at a straight wind direction. “The Froude Number represents the flow of air when it comes in contact with a barrier, in Vermont's case, the Green Mountains. It is an estimation of whether the flow can make it over the mountains or not and is basically a ratio of the wind perpendicular to the mountain chain versus the atmospheric stability. Under northwesterly flow, if the Froude Number is low (< 1), or subcritical and blocked, the air will not make it over the mountain and the precipitation will back up and fall primarily along the spine of the Green Mountains and the western slopes. If it is very low (< 0.5), the precipitation will back further west into parts of the eastern Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. If the Froude Number is high (> 1), or supercritical and unblocked, the air will flow freely over the mountains and deposit the heaviest precipitation on the east side. A Froude Number near 1 is critical and the heaviest precipitation will likely fall along the barrier.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 25, 2021 Share Posted February 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, powderfreak said: There’s a lot that factors into it, IMO. Veering in the low levels under 850mb, speed/velocity, inversions, stability, etc. That’s why BTV studies the Froude number so much. In some events a certain wind direction at 850mb can result in a downslope, but then in another event that same wind direction seems to be pushing the moisture over the barrier so effectively it’s a QPF jackpot. Here sort of explains it... if there’s blocking then the Lee side down slopes, if it’s unblocked the Lee side actually jackpots. BTV often references it on NW flow but it goes for all wind directions... sometimes I think we do great with an east flow in a synoptic storm only to find the precip maximum ended up on the west side because it was unblocked...likewise sometimes we jackpot in NW upslope on the east side. It’s not as simple as just looking at a straight wind direction. “The Froude Number represents the flow of air when it comes in contact with a barrier, in Vermont's case, the Green Mountains. It is an estimation of whether the flow can make it over the mountains or not and is basically a ratio of the wind perpendicular to the mountain chain versus the atmospheric stability. Under northwesterly flow, if the Froude Number is low (< 1), or subcritical and blocked, the air will not make it over the mountain and the precipitation will back up and fall primarily along the spine of the Green Mountains and the western slopes. If it is very low (< 0.5), the precipitation will back further west into parts of the eastern Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. If the Froude Number is high (> 1), or supercritical and unblocked, the air will flow freely over the mountains and deposit the heaviest precipitation on the east side. A Froude Number near 1 is critical and the heaviest precipitation will likely fall along the barrier.” Thanks man! Will need to study this post further. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 18z Euro juiced up a bit and colder again, Trend has been colder on the models with more front end snow on Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2021 Author Share Posted February 26, 2021 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z Euro juiced up a bit and colder again, Trend has been colder on the models with more front end snow on Saturday Nice run for the doldrums guy in Northfield 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice run for the doldrums guy in Northfield Guess he will have to deal with it, I'm heading NW this weekend up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Thanks man! Will need to study this post further. Yeah that was a good explanation from PF. He's the king of knowing this stuff. I'd say in your area, I might not want the flow too blocked..although you have the big mtns to your south and southeast, so even a blocked flow is ok there I'd say. The biggest thing is lacking a N-S 4k barrier that acts to lift and pummels the areas around it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 43 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z Euro juiced up a bit and colder again, Trend has been colder on the models with more front end snow on Saturday Really nice look for our areas. I always like to see that stripe of more precip extending from eastern NH northeast into ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Really nice look for our areas. I always like to see that stripe of more precip extending from eastern NH northeast into ME. Heading to Rangeley/Eustis/Jackman corridor this weekend so its a lock to be snow up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Thanks man! Will need to study this post further. Here is a good discussion of the Froude with lots of graphics. Its a Green Mountain thing. https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude Isn't your biggest issues around downsloping going to occur with E or SE winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Looks like another shot of cold rain here, and then we torch again on Sunday. Bare ground rapidly reappearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, PWMan said: Looks like another shot of cold rain here, and then we torch again on Sunday. Bare ground rapidly reappearing. Roller coaster on temps the next 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 58 minutes ago, klw said: Here is a good discussion of the Froude with lots of graphics. Its a Green Mountain thing. https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude Isn't your biggest issues around downsloping going to occur with E or SE winds? Due S winds. I get crushed on E winds. I love those events. Not been enough of them this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Around 2” here on the NAM, but it’s close to being trivial. RGEM is a nice whack for Gene and maybe 3”-4” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 The pack is very durable. Can walk on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Just now, Lava Rock said: The pack is very durable. Can walk on top of it. Same here....this morning it was just a pure glacier and I didn't sink in at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 I was surprised to see 2-4 of snow in my forecast for tomorrow. I hadn't been on here much very good Maybe it'll be 1 of those things that they say it's gonna change to rain but it doesn't really do that till the end and we end up with a nice snw. Ends up being a pretty snowy February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Meso's spreading the love to the deprived. 12z HRRR 3k Nam 12k Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: The pack is very durable. Can walk on top of it. You weigh like 140lbs lol, Now if i can walk on it then its bullet proof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Pack is taking a hit here. The open sunny areas and main roads are really showing ground now. Some more urbanized areas are completely bare. However, the neighborhoods and wooded areas still have solid snow cover but it is down to just a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: You weigh like 140lbs lol, Now if i can walk on it then its bullet proof. c'mon, I'm 155 wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 Just now, Lava Rock said: c'mon, I'm 155 wet. I'm heading to Eustis in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2021 Author Share Posted February 26, 2021 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: I was surprised to see 2-4 of snow in my forecast for tomorrow. I hadn't been on here much very good Maybe it'll be 1 of those things that they say it's gonna change to rain but it doesn't really do that till the end and we end up with a nice snw. Ends up being a pretty snowy February. Yea I think you have a nice little thump before the drizzle. Not doldrums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 26, 2021 Author Share Posted February 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm heading to Eustis in the morning. Nice. Looks like a half foot for the Mahoosucs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 The models all have me in a pretty hellacious dry zone tomorrow, but this setup seems like it should be decent here. East or southeast winds when the precip is coming in. Another near miss would be annoying. It's like I turned into freaking Whitefield over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm heading to Eustis in the morning. just talked to my riding buddy. Going to skip Andover this wknd. Jackman next wknd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 What happened to 50F and sun on Sunday? PNC now shows, clouds, fog and low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 26, 2021 Share Posted February 26, 2021 33 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said: Pack is taking a hit here. The open sunny areas and main roads are really showing ground now. Some more urbanized areas are completely bare. However, the neighborhoods and wooded areas still have solid snow cover but it is down to just a few inches. I'm sure this isn't news to you guys locally, but cover was definitely spotty when I was on I-91 and I-90 yesterday. South of about Deerfield Mass coverage went down pretty quickly. Brattleboro VT still had 10" solid eveywhere. Medians on highways are going to torch first obviously, but long stretches of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now